Euro2020 Futures (opinions/thoughts/plays).....

give up editing and translate as the bulk discuseed/shard with friends. but since this is MY thread i can do whatever want.  started last week and also wait for a few of the Friendlies as the formations coaches put out for those will be pretty much exactly what we will be seeing in 1st round.

still a few weeks away before we might make it there, but last time England hosted this we didnt even advance past groups.

(commentary) for those old enough to remember. Brits hosted this back in '96. with the final in Trafford. and you all know the bombing which took place in Manchester right before the start. not sure about the exact casualties but that was a sad day for the sport. talks of cancelling the thing made its rounds. but in true British fashion - youre not going to put down a Brit for long;.... they love their futbol, and d*mn anyone whom tries to get in their way. and they went on with the match the opener next day.
so lets uncork one and have a toast, heres to Britain (to everyone except those whom work for their tabloids) 
and if you ask me, THIS was the reason UEFA was reluctant to wait a qtr century to put it back there. and its a damn shame.
because if youre going to sit there and talk about the logistics and everything which goes into HOSTING such a tourney. England is 1A. the infrastructure already there. no need to  BUILD new stadiums. every city basically within driving distance. (give or take the lovely traffic jams London now has. and you dont have to worry about catching a flight between stadiums. and Brits could fill up the stadiums even when their beloved Lions werent playing. (didnt they break the overall attendance record back then? at that time). and it suprises me those greedy b*stards in the UEFA offices refused/continued to look the other way.
so, heres to England & our good friend up there, whom might not have his fingernails to type with in a few weeks.

my "Continental Pride" kicks in. this has always been the toughest tournament - including the WC - on the planet. every 4 years, the bulk of the Top 20 in FIFA's BS rankings are involved. reason which makes this soo difficult is the familiarity. from the players: many are club teammates. knowing tendencies, strengths/weaknesses. stuff which can be recognized when ur out there practicing together, playing together practically everyday. even coaches are releuctant to allow their normal PK-taker to step up to the spot if the GK is their club teammate. even within the coaching ranks is a lot of familiarity.
however. UEFA......like always, somehow managed to scr*w this up too. got bored, created Nations League. and 'lets give some of these countries access to Euros' no disrespect to their fans, but if you think Macedonia are more worthy than Serbia, Romania or those Irish lads then you need to have a 2nd thought. even the Scots got in through the backdoor for godsakes.

Hosts dont Hoist?   , dont hate me for saying that; hate the stats. hate the history. hate the results. but for me, in all honesty, good thing too, cause Im having a hard time ignoring what Southgate has done with/for your Lions.
but even THIS thought process is kind of 'weaker' this year. One of the hardest things to overcome when ur the host has nothing to do with the opponent. its the media pressure, fans, family, demands of your time and zero privacy 24hr non-stop. We laugh when listening to people comparing (or trying to) to the World Cup. Euros are NOTHING like the WC; and some of these countries have incredibly loyal fan bases WHOM TRAVEL WELL. the Roligans of Denmark, Oranje Nation, the 1895ers up there in Belgium, and Blighty is lucky the Serbs didnt get an invite. can fill ANY stadium in europe if youd let them. and those are just a few of the 'smaller' countrys; do I really need to xplain how well Brits and Germans travel? and the British media are every bit as bad, nasty, nosy, analytical, over-critical, and unforgiving as ours.

but Covid took care of all that though. Lions might have caught a huge break in that regard. so this could finally be the year where the hosts reign the land?     as well, you might want to keep track of the Quarantines and positive tests, im getting a nasty feeling this is going to rear its ugly head. 

Nations League:
Its funny listening to these 'experts' in media. ripping into the Nations League from here to kingdom come when created. its meaningless for 3/4 of the countries. GLORIFIED Friendlies which cluttered the schedule that was already packed like a can of sardines. the behemoths with rosters filled with Power-5 league giants more concerned with their upcoming CL match or domestics for their club could have cared less about participating in a competition which UEFA promoted a 2nd option into Euros, and option WHICH THEY ALREADY Qualified for. you think a player will be excited to be up in Kazakistan when his club will be in Camp Nou in 5 days? the motivation is considerably higher. h*ll........most head coaches treated UNL like an assessment process for the selection of their roster for Euros.
yet.... there those "experts" in the media using stats from Nations League to support plays/predictions for Euros. and to a lesser extent, those Qualifiers. its apples and oranges. and just because someone banged in a few or lost a match playing up in lithuania,azerbajan,or faroe in middle of november means absolutely NOTHING to us. certain stats.......... mean nothing for this thing.
Azzurri are on a nice unbeaten run. sure, we are happy about it, but as we all agree....... just 4 of those were top 20 opponents, or even in this thing. so its just pretty on paper.

right away, few tourney props. as we all listened to our 'savior' hold court last week, proof positive of his phrase "gli statistici non vanno mai in pensione". getting bored from kicking our butts every year in fantasy ehh???

Total Goals: for those of you whom love stats. historically speaking, this is NOT the tourney to be taking overs. (im speaking of the 2.5 lines)

2008: 31/77 (2.48/game)
2012: 31/76 (2.45/game)
2016: 51/108 (2.12/game)

again, this goes directly into that 'familiarity' thing. but also, as typical of any major tourney. for the behemoths, getting 3 pts is more important than looking "pretty". for the 2nd tier & longshots, goal difference is MASSIVE in regards to the tiebreakers. losing 0-1 to a power is a HUGE + for them. and they tend to play that way; falling behind 0-1 at the half wont change a thing in regards to their strategy. get your melon wrapped around those two things. its important. (especially those opening round matchups when they have a month to prepare for ONE opponent)

in any case: as always, first 'auto' play:
total tourney goals U125 @+140 51 matches (theres no 3rd place game) x 2.5 = 127.5. so getting '+' money sounds about right. if memory serves me right this blew 20 under the total 4 years ago.

and as we just listened to, heres one to really sink your teeth into:
Cards/Suspensions:

2016 (51 games) - 15 suspended, 205 yellows, 3 reds
2012 (31 games) - 24 suspended, 123 yellos, 3 reds
2008 (31 games) - 18 suspended, 121 yellows, 3 reds

theres been at least 3 reds/suspensions in every Euro since start of century.

and when you toss in the knowledge we have of the list of refs assigned to this thing this year:

Felix Brych (Germany)
Cüneyt Çakir (Turkey)
Carlos Del Cerro Grande (Spain)
Andreas Ekberg (Sweden)
Orel Grinfeeld (Israel)
Ovidiu Alin Hategan (Romania)
Sergei Karasev (Russia)
Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Bjorn Kuipers (Netherlands)
Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)
Antonio Miguel Mateu Lahoz (Spain)
Michael Oliver (England)
Daniele Orsato (Italy)
Artur Manuel Ribeiro Soares Dias (Portugal)
Daniel Siebert (Germany)
Anthony Taylor (England)
Clément Turpin (France)
Slavko Vincic (Slovenia)

aside from our "beloved" Michael (they better not assign him to Rome), thats a solid group they selected this time around. heap of them whom are quick to take control of the matches, whom raise their arms, get their pencils out FIRST and THEN have a "discussion". lets see what books hang out for total cards, it should blow over that number. immediately..... thy melon zooms right onto those two Romanians + Orel (Israeli)

EDIT: agree with the group, whats this doing at 185? lets get the hammer out for this one: over 185 total yellow cards @-105.

Total Red Cards: Less than 6 @+110 ( do NOT confuse this with yellow card/suspension accumulations)

(only going in-depth with our Azzurri. skip over if desire)

Group A: 

Group A: cazzo! first Group, 1st match? guess we got to do this one first.
Azzurri - (taking off tinted glasses) sorry guys; well, my melon thinks "you dont go from missing the WC to winning Euros in 2 years time" it dont work that way. with THAT being said, I also dont think any of the actual favs will want to see us in KO's either. Azzurri arent your typical 'once every generation' kind of country. we are talented. we have experience. and a coach the players enjoy playing for.and most importantly, we still have that presence in the locker room (Giorgio); the one whom everyone listens to. binds them together, tosses the club rivalries out of their heads whom everyone have been programmed into hating another to come together. outsiders might think its crazy to say such a thing...... but they have NO IDEA how problematic that can become for a coach. not saying we are more 'prideful' than other countries, and we might not be as talented overall as some of these other rosters im looking at, but we are loaded with forward-thinking strikers capable of dribbling thru traffic. forward thinking midfielders skilled with ball posession and making those 20-30m runs. and tho father time is catching up with Giorgio, when hes out there, our backline is straight as an arrow and everyone will be where they are supposed to be, which is th true value of that armband. and dont ever underestimate that patch on the chest. and you wont see a car on the streets when theyre playing.
anyways, back to reality..... if everything goes as planned. we are stuck on teh Waffles half of the bracket (Qtrs), it certainly throws a wrench into those 'dreams'. Belgium will/should/most likely be keen to remember '16 (see thy Belgian writeup). got that unbeaten run going, pfft... means SQUAT (if youre going to hang ur hat on that then you might as well want to take a peek & start talking about whom we played too). and lastly, our "HOME" games will be played @Olimpico. ***EDIT*** for the sake of this forums sanity I will spare you the details, but there was a LOT of political arm-twisting going on, that north-south "thing" Rome might be our capital, but it isnt our 'futbol' capital. that, ... is Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) a stadium built upwards and we'll give any visiting team a "proper" Italian welcoming, its intimidating. Olimpico? first of all, to put things into perspective, since the previous euros back in '16, Azzurri have had 29 "home" games...... and have played @Olimpico just ONCE (vs Greece in qualifiers i think). and theres that stupid track around the pitch, seating spread outwards. our "home" advantage isnt what people are perceiving it to be. and practically every man on this roster (save the 5 from Lazio/Roma) has expressed dislike of that place. hope they get it out of their systems quickly.

this time around, our strength is not in the back, its in midfield. and since midfields win titles, its a good place to have your strength. Verratti, Jorghino, Locatelli, Barella, Pell, Sensi, Chiesa(sort of) etc etc. these guys are not afraid to get their shorts dirty & play well together as a unit. and more importantly, they can play both ways. you want to run? we'll run with you; but at the same time, these guys all know the little things which go into parking a bus and protect leads. outsiders all know about Jorg and Verratti, theyll get all the attention. not many know or heard of him, but within these borders, within the team, Manuel is the rising star. makes all our forwards 'happy'. best passer of the group and makes everyone else around him look better. tho they got hammered with Covid this year theres a reason Sassuolo has turned Serie A upside down. knock on him tho is hes YOUNG, and has little Intl experience (at THIS level for THIS position? not good. but hey, maybe hes TOO young to understand) the problem with our attack up front is we have far TOO many strikers whom play the same way.and we lack size. Insigne & Cirro cant get out of each others way; and theyre both from club teams whom offenses were designed around their skillsets, thats not the case with Mancini's setup. Insignes always cuts to the middle and cant use that left foot. and we've discussed this from here to kingdom come, i know - kicking a dead horse - the bigger the match? the harder it is to find Cirro. his 13 goals in 3100+ mins covering 46 appearances pretty much sums it up. and you can count on one hand how many actually gave us the lead. our backline is solid but Giorgio & Leonardo cannot do 3 in 9 days. so getting a result in the opener is actually pretty important. our GK Donn is FUN to watch ehh??? . hes still young and has much to learn still, especially positioning. after 2-3 years, Gigis "heir" STILL struggles with via air crosses into the box. and has this annoying habit of brainfarts. we SHOULD win this group, but nobody will/should be crying sour grapes for finishing 2nd. that path to the semis is 10x easier. cazzo!!!

Futures:
Italy outright @+1200   - the big Capt Obvious one ehh?  NOT taking this is worse than losing  it
Azzurri to reach semis @+275 (this is actually a cr*p price)
Leading goalscorer: agreed. Belotti @+550 - his size gives him the advantage on corners and set pieces, and the man has a nose for the ball. he still bangs in 15+ yearly in Serie A without a half-decent MF feeding him. one of our leading scorers during stupid Nations League and Qualifiers as Mancini has set plays for him & Giorgio designed specifically as the 1st option.

Jorghino @+2800 - as long as hes on the pitch, our designated PK taker. (end of discussion).

Berardi O1.5 goals - when one of your best passers (Locatelli) and his favorite target(Domenico) are club teammates.... this is always worth a shot. no matter what country you play for actually.

Italy over 7.5 goals @+115 (tourney) - this is NOT the Azzurri of yesteryear. we can get up the pitch, create chances, and a bunch of 2-way players in the middle whom function as a unit and can play all 4 positions. and unlike previous versions, the offense starts from whomever has the ball at his feet. what we lack is that 'proven' world-class striker whom has size. but i have my concerns if the pressure of playing at home will get to them

Switzerland: to me, experience counts a ton in this thing, and I like this Swiss side, they might not grab the headlines like others but a very solid group whom have been through the wars Intlly and their Bosnian coach Petkovic has been there for quite some time. Xhaka headed to Roma, so he will have incentive to do well vs us. theyve played all the big boys in europe on the road the past few years (this is a key stat for me, and one which I will be referencing a lot) and have held their own; eliminataed by the Swedes in KO's of WC few years ago; holding Brazil to a draw in their opener. Our neighbors to the north could actually overtake us for the top spot (which would be a blessing in disguise). theyll advance, and will be a tough nut for anyone to crack in KOs but another deep run doesnt seem possible with the thin bench.

Turkey - now heres a REAL wildcard. if you take the time to run thruough the whole tourney you will quickly realize 2nd in this group is going to be a much easier path to the semis. and ever since Gunes took over ..... yes, this is the SAME coach whom led them to a 3rd place finish in the WC at turn of century ...... has a stadium named after him already for godsakes, and hes brought back that PRIDE we always discuss. and we all know what a young bunch of 'nobodies' can do with a heapfull of pride playing for a beloved coach can do. Demiral was a fairly solid defender for us, Cal led Milan to a 2nd place CL slot, and their Captain (Yilmaz) led Lille in scoring for their first Ligue I title in years knocking off PSG. thats 3 players, right smack down the middle of the backbone of your formation. the h*ll with the Nations League, I think these guys lost just once on the road since he took over; and walking into Paris in Euro Qualifier and holding a full strength Les Bleus side to a point validates their strength. will be watching them closely in the opener, they have the luxury of getting the Swiss @home but thats not always a big advantage in these major tourneys, especially with a young team. & for teams whom havent been here. a wee-bit juiced, but the 3.5 is kind of a low # when you consider their style and the decent possibility of playing 4 games. so tossing some on Turkey TT O3.5 @-135

Wales - biggest news coming out of Wales of late has nothing to do on the pitch. Giggs sacekd after a domestic violence. and if theres one thing I absolutely hate..... its those last minute coaching changes before a major (aka within the year). not sure if these guys can rekindle that magic from previous Euros where everything fell into place. theyre getting older, and good lord have their stars been injury prone.they might have come in 2nd to qualify directly but I think they also had the lowest total goals of anyone in this thing (10). watching this team is like watching those Irish lads up there, tough nut to crack. Wales plays to their strengths (aka... an eyesore to watch). quick peek at their roster Page submitted, half of them pulled paychecks from EPL clubs. tho I have zero clue as to how much playing time they received, they were still there practicing vs top notch talent. so simply brushing them aside is foolish. I WEIGHT the EPL heavily come Intl tourneys. they could squeeze into that 3rd slot via goal difference.

have a ton of Azzurri specific individual props from minutes played to cards to passes. wont list them here.   

Group Prediction: 
Italy/Switz @+170 - dont know WHY everyone giving us soo much love, we are NOT cakewalking thru this group. Gunes is a MASTER tactician, and going up against him when he has a month to prepare is the worst of the 3 options to have faced for an opener. but I just have to sdie with the Swiss, splitting hairs here, experience..... counts. and they have this over the Turks.

Switz to reach Qtrs @+275 - again, im going to be hammering at this comment right on thru this thing... take the time to do a dry run. you will notice quickly that 2nd place (ASSUMING the Belgians dont scr*w up) is a much easier path. I actually wouldnt mind us finishing 2nd (will xplain in Group B writeup)
note: taking Turkey to reach Qtrs is decent value too.

getting late. tired. will put rest of this stuff up tmrw  

GL Spec

sorry backing the Italians here based just on value & my father in law

so much to unpack here, some great stats and writeups

spec, i'm dating myself here but i remember euro 96, it was one of the best years of my life! And the song football is coming home was coined there as it was 30 years of hurt since the 1966 world cup, 25 years on, still no major win so why should this year be any different! But yes, england has a great infrastucture in place to host something every year! 

So true about unders especially the first game which noone wants to come away from empty handed. If Oliver is assigned any Italian games, I will literally be ROFL, surprised only 3 "espulsos" in previous tourneys.

BOL with all your bets, i wish i had the same confidence in my national team!

Hi spec, thanks for all the insight.great job as always.

silent reader here.

Do you mind to tell me which website do you use? My book doesn’t have a Lots of props like you mentioned above.thanks

FRZA !

BOL this year Spec 

DJ, being italian myself. and seeing your attempts/willingness to remain on ur father-in-laws good side. id have to commend you for such a decision. GOOD JOB and im at that stage in life where I dont have to worry about those decisions. i can now "MAKE" those decisions.

Boll, as always.   confidence?? when you dont qualify for the WC, trust me, "confidence" disappears. "so much to unpack here"... we havent even gotten past the socks yet. you have NO IDEA. and youre about to find out too. (laughing) i fell lucky to have been in a group of really good friends whom share a similar passion for the sport, different nationalities/cultures. and whom follow their own teams/countries religiously. give out some, but take even more in. wont always be right tho.
on the futbol side:
best year? obviously was 2006.
worst? '94 with Baggio, that effin' HURT. took a wee-bit of time to overcome i am not afraid to admit.  everything else comes in between those two points of the futbol emotions-universe.
betting? hands down (and its not even close).... THIS D*MN THING back in '04 (Greece). lessons from that one i still carry with me today. 
twin
schmeto i am cautiously hopeful. win, lose, or draw; booted before groups or in the final? wont matter. FORZA. regardless of what happens.
BigD hope all is well and tks fer stopping by.

toss up the rest of this. hope it dont put you to sleep. 

Group B: i like to use this as a comparison to show everyone just how certain countrys paths can go in completely opposite directions. and it all started on June 13, 2016.
Belgium -well, for me? weakest FIFA #1 roster have seen in quite some time, whom also happen to be one of the oldest in this thing. Unfortunately for everyone else, 26 players dont play at once. unlike previous "versions" of #1's.... Waffles heavily dependent on their stars (which is actually one of the reasons which prevent me from taking them on the outrights) 5 years ago, in the opener we were there; a young Waffles with Wilmot leading them were #5, walked into Lyon; a wee-bit too confident if you ask me, having spent the previous 18 months listening to everyone telling them how good they were. to play our "lowly ranked" but experienced squad with Conte directing. physically abused them, pushed them around. Luk had his worst game wearing his countrys colors and put up a 2-0 cleansheet; thaks for the copy of that interview of Kev afterwards..... promsied to 'never let that happen again'. its safe to say hes kept his word ehh?  fast-forward 4 years later, beating the Waffles got our guys heads swollen, and we didnt even make the WC whilst this SAME Waffle roster just basically got older, more experienced and now sitting on the perch of the futbol planet. and since we are in a collision course in Qtrs, some of you might want to dial down that enthusiasm cause that is one hell of a 4-year IOU coming. and Waffles have ... arguably... 3 players whom are the best at their positions (or at least the Top 3). Kev,Luk,& Court. right smack down the middle of the formation. thus, they are on my short list to hoist. my reasonings for NOT choosing them? (again, this is FUTURES, re-wire your brain a second and think the WHOLE tourney) 1) too top-heavy for me, and with yellow accumulations, injuries its not a pleasant thought. come to think of it, took a peek at Martinez roster submittal, that backline isnt a pleasant thought either. and he prefers playing with 3 in the back quite often, and i just thinks too risky at this level. 2) brackets. with the possibility of having to play Portugal, Italy, and Lions/France/Spain just to get to finals those prices suddenly dont look very good. should breeze through this group and make yet another deep run. but going against a few of you here but im passing on futures.

Belgium 9 pts @+330, 7 pts @+250 (i think this is actually fairly safe thing to snatch some profit from which might offset other future losses. I simply cannot see them dropping points in 2 of the 3 games.(fyi, regarding the '7'? tho #1s dont play for draws (its a mental thing), besides - its the other way around) but I can EASILY see Martinez settling for a point in Parken vs the Danes, especially if they thump Russia in the opener. so that '7' is a safety net and @ that price? ill take it. (it will probably be the same as the draw option before gametime anyways)

here comes "Darkhorse #1"
Denmark - Kasper is a newbie to this thing, so right away theres cause for concern. took over last August, and has a nice collection of players on that roster of his. they seem to only qualify every 8 years for this thing. Eriksen is a solid MF and their Captain Kjaer anchored Milans backline for the Serie A runners up along with a mass of players whom pulled paychecks from Power 5 leagues. one thing worth mentioning, as with any major tourney, which should always be looked at is how certain countries have fared to get this far. some got here by performing/winning their home games, but are poor on road (see the Czechs)
and out of all of them, Denmark has put together a pretty impressive run both home/away. Parken typically is not a fun place for anyone to visit and the Danes are bloody tough over there, have lost just once here in past few years (Belgium, its funny how this stuff pans out sometimes). and to further bolster that comment, 10 of those were opponents whom are in this thing. but again, theres no way to gauge some of the results of bulk of those UNL/Qualifier matches as the lineups were mixed. on the road? they went to Switz & Ireland (not easy places) and came away with a point for euros, and in WC Qual went to Wien & and blew the Austrians away. might have beat the Lions up @Wembley (UNL), looks nice on paper ehh? Macguirre getting a red at the half hour mark helped matters tho. anyways, they get all 3 in Parken, so you just have to give them the nod over Russians whom have to make that LONG trip from Petersburg for that final match on short rest.***** the knock with the Danes through the years is come tourney time theyve struggled to create chances and take on a completely different personality. only scored 3 in their 4 WC matches few years ago. so, up comes another red flag in my melon.
had the Waffles played these guys in the opener, with 1 month to prepare? it wold have been my upset special. but Danes still going to give Martinez lads a run for their money in the 2nd round. (not sure if thats the correct phrase)
Prediction: cazzo!! Danes got more than 'just a chance' to reach the semis. another serious 'darkhorse' contender whom - judging by the format layout - have it served on a platter for them to make a very deep run in this thing dont they? i dont know, but at those prices, sure as hell worth a shot IF Danes finish behind the Waffles. tho not as strong away from Parken, theyre going to be a tough out. Danes to reach Qtrs @+150, Semis @450

Russia - dont know why, just dont like this Russian sides chances. first of all, being in THIS group, they simply wont have the luxury of playing behind the ball and their system under Cher, they take FOREVER to build up a play. at same time, if the opponent sits behind the ball the Russians dont know what to do. I think theyre in a transition phase, problem is theres nobody coming up to fill those shoes. mixed bag of results (depending on how you want to look at it); only beat ONE team whom is in this thing in the past 18 months (8 matches) and theyve been dreadful on road. yeah, I know, but Kazak, Cyprus, San Marino Moldova dont count. and that LONG trip to Parken on short rest pretty much cements the #3 or lower spot out of this group.

Finland: everyone keeps talking about how Huuhkajat are happy to just be here; i think only Macedonia is ranked lower. but they didnt get in through the backdoor; finished behind us in Qualifiers and we had the chance to watch them twice. first of all, they found the net in all but 1; and they are a pretty organized with their counter-attacking and with Pukki leading them up front at least they can be dangerous. but this roster is from all over the h*ll though, just 4 play in Finnish league, the rest from lower divisions. Finlands problems arent finding the net, its the other end; they cant keep anyone out in their travels. were royally thumped by the Bosnians when it really mattered.
one play I really like here: Finland TT over 2.5 @+140 - getting what might be an already-qualfied Waffles team last sure helps. and this Group overall doenst have steller defenses.

Dual:
Belgium/Denmark @-130 - I know this is juiced. but this is a strong one. (another 'safety net' in case some of the others scr*w up)

Group C: if we Top our group, we'll face 2nd here)
(heres an intresting one, a possible nomination for thy "Wall of Shame". THANK YOU for the input)
Ukraine: decided to uncork a possible gem (or lump of coal?) here. have never qualified for KO stage, but this is just their 3rd time in it too. 4 years ago they came home with their tails between legs, not only finished the bottom of their group but had a goose egg in the Pt column. AND another goose egg in the GF column (they actually have 5 consecutive euro matches of being cleansheeted) hired their legend Shev to take over and rolled through the Qualifying Round coming in 1st. got toseed into a tough Nations League group to test their progress but as we listened to Marco 'holding court' last week, thats a cr*pshoot as the teams werent able to field full strength sides. the results might not be pretty but they have that mentality up there, and its perfectly suited for such tourneys as theyve steadily improved since Shev took over. I think these guys advance out of this group somehow/some way. and its not some stretch of the imagination to see them come out on top. agree with you all of the 24 teams, Ukraine are one of the best at set pieces, something Marco explained about Shev dedicates an awful lot of time practicing. and we all know about something which the rest of europe doesnt yet......Malinovskyi, is one h*ll of a good set piece specialist. came to Atalanta from Belgium, banged in 8 two straight years and the bulk of them with that wall standing in front. and Shaparenko (Kiev). is a young midfielder whom is about to start getting calls from all the big-boy clubs. the star of this team is Andriy tho (you uys whom follow the EPL probably know/heard about his as he plays over there). might not do well at the club level, but as Marco reminded us, there are some players in europe (actually a LOT) when when they pull that jersey over their head and that patch over the heart, they just play on a whole nother level. the fact that hes getting close to breaking his own Head Coaches goal-scoring record for his country is self-explanatory. on a side note, if you like card props, take the under with them as a team or game or whatever; these guys dont foul often. anyways with THIS group, along with the strong possibility of playing 4 games. this line should be juiced so Ill gladly toss some on Ukraine TT goals O4.5 @+115
and taking a risk here, Ukraine to win Group C @+450

Austria: most confusing team for us ehh? they have just as good of a chance of winning all 3 as they do of losing all 3. one of the better mid-tiers tho; 3/4 of their roster pull paychecks from the Bunde and Alaba still leading htem, so theres quite a bit of quality on this roster. just can never figure them out, Danes went to Wien a few months back for WCQ, blew them away & they havent beaten anybody in the Top20 in their travels for several years now. avoiding placement, with Macedonians in this Group, everyone should hit their TT. cant put a future on them simply because cannot figure out their Groups placement. finish 2nd? theyll most likely get us. finish 3rd? Belgium or whomever wins "F". Austria TT O3.5 @-135 and this is actually a fairly strong one as they could hit this when facing the Macedonians again.

Holland: like everyone in here, we are "old school". there used to be a time when players would be on their deathbed and STILL want to be there for Euros. so Virgil making that announcement of not trying to get healthy in time and focus on club team? , keep that stuff to yourself Virgil. i "get" his injury, it was a serious one, and hes got a future to think about. and the people in media whom are complaining about his decision are the ones whom are sitting there on their couches whom never got picked to play for anything in their lives. but I agree with rest of you, no need to make an announcement; its "insulting" to those countrymen whom wore/bled the colors yesteryear. isnt he the same guy whom left their team due to 'personal' reasons during qualifiers when Oranje were battling for 1st place in their Group? and I really dont care if get ripped into for that comment.
postitive thing is theyve had plenty of prep time. at least they still have DeLigt back there, he has the size/speed to mark the best europe has to offer. toss in DeVrij over there from our Scudetto champs and thats still a pretty decent backline the Oranje has. but we all agree, this Midfield of theirs is amazingly not getting the attention they deserve. deJong, deRoon, Winj might be a notch below and no real world class striker up front but Depay is much improved. and as discussed many of times this year, when DeLigt had to shift over in Giorgios absence he struggled in that CB role. this is where missing Virgil will hurt them come KO's vs frontlines playing a few levels higher.
Netherlands to reach semis @+225 - risky, again, they might end up playing us in KO's, im keenly aware of this. & if they get stuck with one of those behemoths from 'F' in opening KO's theyre scr*wed. so lay off the juice on the Qtr prop. and a head-on collision with the Dane wager above as theyd meet in the Qtrs if everything goes "as planned". those prices going to nosedive if they advance though.

Macedonia: no disrespect to their fans, but they shouldnt even be in this thing. came in through the UNL backdoor and can leave through it. could only grab 4 wins out of their 10 EC Qualifiers from a rather weak Group. when ur armband holder is a 37 year old whom banged in just 7 goals in just 1500 minutes of Serie A action and hadnt played a full 90 all year isnt too uplifting. managed to beat a disinterested & rotated German sqaud back in March but aside from that they are poor on the road and have just a few on that roster whom play in Power 5 leagues. and with opponents motivation being ramped up a few notches along with everything else, dont expect much from them. Under 1.5 goals @+140 is worth a shot for fun.

Group D: England has provided me with some of my most EMBARRASSING writeups (Intl comps have a way of doing that.... can make one look stupid) so even I admit theres some hesistation to this Group.
England - now heres another team I really like. problem is, theyre hosts. and that "Hosts dont Hoist" thing you keep reminding me about. and thats one hell of a nasty Qtr UEFA assigned them. so I guess they can share that pitchfork with France, youd think hosts be given the "easier" route? sweet mother of god.
George, I absolutely LOVE this reference (didnt know Tolkien was a Brit)...... getting philosophical on me this year ehh?

“One Ring to rule them all,
One Ring to find them,
One Ring to bring them all
and in the darkness bind them.”

curious. you talking about Gareth or Harry?

Ive always felt The Lions biggest probelms thru the years were cohesion. theyve never really had a lockerroom presence like we had with Andrea & Gigi, which "binds" them all together and toss those club rivalries out the window. and if theres ONE thing ive learned in my lifetime about British football....well, thats a good place to start. Lions always talented. always - at the very least - a darkorse to win major comps - nobody will argue with me on that. but holy h*ll England always had some internal distractions to tear them apart. but from afar? i like what Southgate has done, and I also like Harry. there was that moment a few years ago, I swear it was the loss to belgium during groups, but at the end there was Harry - armband and all - standing there near touchline locker entrance making it a point to shake each and every teammates hand as they walked off. some of you might laugh at my stupid memory, but that image just STICKS in my melon. call it whatever you want, but to me? thats leadership. THIS Lion squad looks like they finally enjoy playing together. that cohesion theyve been missing in years past is now there. it showed in the WC & getting booted in the semis is a blessing in disguise. thats my/our take on them. not going into the player details or anything. I guess my only gripe is how Walker keeps locking down the starting job back there (please dont get me started with him) and Harry should be on everyones short list of Golden Boot possibilities. man has a gps tracker in that noggin of his and I still think he holds down PK duties for a country whom have a boatload of forwards/MF with the skillsets to make constant runs into the box with the ball at their feet. which is the prime reason for PK's being awarded. their MF might not be as "known" as others whom picked up their paychecks in the EPL, but the fact they all can/have held their own going up against the sheer QUALITY of midfield playing up there..simply put, if you can hold your own in the EPL youre prepared for anything Internationally. now, only if their media would leave Southgate alone long enough to......
Prediction: for futures only? agreed. forget about them. with the possibility of have to beat France-Spain-Belgium just to get to the finals? in 10 days?? 450 is cr*p.

Croatia - thats one h*ll of an IOU to start a major tourney off with. these aging veterans dont have the legs anymore for that 3-match/9 day grind; so getting the Lions in their opener is the WORST possible scenario for them simply because of the necessary rotations later on. after that one, two very winnable matches. this is an experienced veteran-filled roster whom have been thru all the wars. i still think Rakitics decision to retire from the team is a big blow for them but these guys are still loaded with talent, especially the younger generation. enough to beat any favorite if they dont bring their 'A' game. was advised to ignore the meaningless UNL results, they already qualified for this thru ECQ's and didnt even use their full strength side. and with Luka still around & playing at a high level the Croats will always remain dangerous; but I just dont know if Luka has the legs for the grind anymore. and tho theyre getting the Lions in the opener with several weeks of preparation. another darkhorse? perhaps. but finishing behind the Lions means theyd get 1st of Group F in qtrs. beating Lions? means they get 2nd of Group F. have to hold off on anythingwith them.

Scotland - another country whom came in thru the UNL backdoor beating the Serbs on PK's, failing to nab a spot thru the Qualifiers, might have won half their matches but in a Group with Cyprus/Kazak/Marino 5 wins suddenly doesnt look too great. Robertson holds the armband for Pool and for his homeland too, so the squad has leadership. a quick peek at Clarkes roster submittal several pull paychecks from the EPL clubs while over half their roster comes from SPL (Bollox' favorite). 5 from Celtic, just 2 from Rangers?? judging by the seasons those clubs just had am I the only one wondering why those numbers arent swapped around? but this squad have been poor travellers; vs the mid-tier in europe they can hold their own. but when the opposition skill sets are up a few more notches on the Euro/Intl level? theyve failed miserably. blown away by Waffles & Russians while managing to score just 2 vs San Marino? should be embarrassed. so that opener vs the Czechs in Glasgow is going to be massive for them (they also get Croats there too) but just dont see that as the kind of advangtage everyone perceiving it to be.
i think books screwed up here: the odds on team points (3) +300 is lower than draw (1) @+330. yet.... Scots are juiced to finish in cellar. and to make things even more confusing is their TT is juiced to the moon. how many cellar dwellers in our lifetime finished with 3 pts? we all know its exremely RARE. (its happened just 3 times in the past few decades+ in this thing). and in a group with Lions (at Wembley for godsakes), getting 3 draws isnt likely. so whom they going to beat? i just dont see enough quality on that roster. Scotland to finish last @-118

(tailing. "stealing" a writeup)
Czech - now heres a real longshot for those whom like to take chances. and one we spent a lot of time discussing. finished behind Lions in Qualifiers and as a reward get put in same Group again, come on UEFA??? Czechs fall into that category of difficult to figure out. these guys are dreadful in their travels, rode their home strength to nab that qualifying spot. heres why theyre a longshot: held #1 Waffles to a draw in WCQ last March - and that was an important enough of a match for a FULL strength side Martinez put out there (scratching chin). when you hold Waffles to UNDER 10 shot attempts you must be pretty well organized. and Czech also beat Southgates FULL squad in the ECQ's?(be advised, they also were thumped by Southgates FULL squad in the ECQ's too. 5-0) so theres some decent quality in the roster to at least bea able to hold your own vs the best in europe. ignore the Nations League results, they already qualified via ECQ's and as Marcus explained, Jaro used the UNL as a testing process to fill out his roster. this roster Jaroslav submitted, half from the Czech league, and 5 from same club (Slavia). from the Intl level, unity, cohesion, and familiarity with another should NEVER be disregarded. its one of the first things we look at picking out a possible longshot. and these Czechs fit the criteria. but cazzo, they are bad travellers. at least theyll get the Croats on short rest and 'MIGHT'get the Lions when theyre already through to help that goal difference. if you peek at brackets, theyll get 2nd from 'E' (Poland or Swedes) in KO's. best of the longshots to reach Qtrs ehh?? for fun, toss a little on the Czechs to reach Qtrs @+400 and pray to god they dont get stuck with Belgium in KO's.

Summary: Id hate to think what the British media will do if they dont top this Group. could win it all but UEFA gave them no favors with that KO pairing. Lions have had far far far more talented rosters than this one before whom self exploded tho. Croats on paper should finish behind them an then the Czech.
what the are the Lions tourney TT doing @ 8.5 guys? i know its juiced. agreed, pressure is going to be a major obstacle but they might have fun out there vs this Group. and you know they wont let their foot off pedal vs their neighbors to the north. realistically, ur going to get at the very least 5 games out of each these two so lets combine them to knock all that juice down:
Belgium TT O7.5 + England TT O8.5 +154

Group E: for me, of all the Groups this is probably the toughest to figure out.

Spain: now, I understand WHY Enrique elected not to name Ramos to the squad. injuries and all. but I still disagree. with UEFAs approval of expansion for roster size, truth of the matter is.... just 16-18 players will be used for most coaches; and to leave someone of Ramos' stature, the experience, the knowledge, and the respect he has gained wearing that armband previously for his country. in my opinion... stupido. (especially when Enrique STILL has two spots left to fill) it makes me think we arent hearing the WHOLE story here. and from what we hear over in Spain, itss become quite a distraction. because experience, is huge in this thing, just having him around is a bonus. in regards to thoes other Madrid players, people are blowing this waaay out of order, Ramos (along with Virgil up there, are those "special" ones, not to mention, they anchor the backline for their countries, at any cost they should at the very least be on their rosters. as for the rest? if you arent fit... its not like their cupboard is dry. Spain is young and talented up front, and thats a solid collection in MF (Rodri, Pedri, Busquets, Thiago, Koke, Fabian, Llorente) got put in a winnable Group here but being tossed into that bottom half with Waffes & Lions makes me think twice of any semi-finalist play. theres going to be a ton of value with them the deeper they go anyways. at the SAME TIME, im extremely leery of all this commotion over roster selections. if they dont get a result in their opener vs the Swedes, I can see them blowing up internally. history has proven this time & time again, a young squad, with a coach already under fire from everywhere in Spain. im staying away for anything on them for now.

EDIT*** another blow for Spain. armband holder Busquets tested positive. dont know how long he will be out.

Poland: initially were my darkhorse but listening in to the feedback made me change my stance. Lew - along with our Cirro over here - are prime examples of how club success doesnt always transfer over on Intl level. Lew is a product of Bayerns system, with Poland? he just doesnt have those midfielders with the skillsets which makes a world class strikers job easier. their defense is solid tho and you all know how many times Woj saved our a**es back there the past few seasons. after years under Gigis mentoring he's now in the convo of Top 5 GK in europe; but I got to agree with you all.... St Petes - Seville - St Petes. in 9 days? the Swedes will be waiting for them there after they get back from facing Enriques boys. not good. and their midfield is below par. theyll go as far as Lews boots let them.

Sweden - well, I dont know. I DO know Zlat coming off one of those knee injuies which take a wee-bit of time to recover from. and as a coach, at 39 when youre faced with a 3-in-9 sched its probably the best decision. besides, motor-mouth burnt quite a few bridges up there with those comments he made a few years ago. theyll still miss his presence tho they DID get here w/out him didnt they? yet another solid veteran led roster the Blagult have. but their stars have been around forever it seems Berg leads the front and Dejan still finding his way with Juve a threat when his head is on straight. with Mikael & Andreas in the back and their GK Olsen picks up paychecks from the EPL. seems like ive been typing that same sentence for a few decades. (laughing) im clueless with their chances. the grind of a tourney might be too much for these guys as their bench is thin. but theyre the ones whom get the first crack at Spain with a heapful of distractions; healthy rested, months prep? Im smelling a possible upset in first round. but overall. difficult to back them for the ENTIRE tourney.

***EDIT*** DeJan just tested positive and might miss entire group stage.

Slovaika - they were paired in same Group as Hungary in Qualifiers, both didnt make it directly. both got in thru the UNL backdoor. Slovaks eliminated NI to get here. and typical with most of the nations up over there, they lack the scoring up front, decent in the middle and solid in the back. but thats an awful YOUNG roster Stefan submitted. Im counting half 25 years and under. dont know what to make of these guys either; good enough to beat the Russians in WCQ and Scotland too. but then cant beat Cyprus, Malta? going to take a shot with these guys only because theres a lot of question marks from the other 3. Sloviaka to advance @+160

Spain. Swedes. Poland. Slovaks. splitting hairs and Lew could very well carry them, a sweet price to finish 1st. but thats nasty schedule theyre faced. and this is a pretty tough group when considering LaRoja isnt as strong as years past and constant grilling over Enriques roster selections is the last thing a coach wants to be dealing with leading into this thing.
**EDIT** and now he has to look for another armband holder***

Group F: right away, when doing futures, two Captain Obvious things glaring: 1) 2nd place gets the Lions. 2) 3rd place only assigned to TWO slots in KO's, one of them are Waffles. what the h*ll UEFA? first KO round can have England vs France & Belgium vs Portugal (or just flip-flop the teams and toss in Germans if you wish for godsakes) the heck with figuring this out. so from the future standpoint, toss in the Germans & im just going to eliminate ALL 5. will deal with that migraine later. and maybe toss something on an outright champion after the first round results are in. tho those prices will obviously come down, this Groups winner will have a far easier path to the finals. h*ll, we could actually see the two finalists from this group is not some stretch of the imagination either.
if you want to get picky about this & understand why im annoyed with UEFA, 6 of the top 7 teams on the planet will/could be in same half of bracket. what the....

Portugal: so, ur the defending champs and UEFA sticks you with Germany & France? dont laugh guys, you would be ****-off too. glad to see those UEFA idiots chew on their own rules/decisions. not sure why Portugal is being overlooked, a part of me thinks its cause of their 'defending champ' status so nobody picks them. forget about that for a minute, just look at this roster, compare it to what everyone else has, and tell me they shouldnt be at the very least 'title contenders'. thats an ABOVE average midfield theyve assembled, an experienced backline perfect for such tourneys - Portugal knows HOW to win ugly. two years of watching him intently & father time might be catching up with CR7, but hes still dangerous. and in a tourney where scoring chances are typically tough to come by, having one of the absolute best strikers with one of the lowest chance/conversion rate in the past decade+, youve got to include Portugal in that list. but sweet mother of god, picking 1-2-3 from this Group is a cr*pshoot.

Germany: Low announced this is his last ride. dont know why books put them ahead of France. ehhh, they seem disinterested these past few months. and like most of the other contenders, UNL was a joke as they already qualified. testing, experimenting with the formations/lineups, roster selection for this thing. put a gun to my head and I got them to top the Group. but we are seriosusly splitting thin hairs. Germans as always technically sound and just dont think THIS squad has any real superstar on it. at the same time, you cant really pick one thing or one player to stifle them. perhaps, all-around their starting 11 is just = up and down the pitch. solid. at a high level too. but again, cazzo!!! opening a major tourney having to play France & Portugal consecutively in 4 days? pfft. PASS

France - Our Golden Pitchfork Winner: the country whom got it shoved up 'you-know-where' the farthest. previous versions finalist, done with that and what you do? nothing much... just win the WC ehh? lose just 3 of your next 30 matches. same roster. same coach. and the best ranking gets given to one of your neighbors. an on top of that, UEFA tells you you have to pack your bags and do some travelling. while someone like Scotland can take a bus to their games if they wanted to. its insulting.
France - when the Qualifiers were done and teams announced they were thy odds on favs to hoist. again, forget their UNL stuff, if one cannot distinguish the motivational difference between a glorified friendly and a major Intl, ehhh  never mind.    I love their backline, size/mobility and experience. best collection of striking talent in all of europe and heres the KEY thing about them, each one does something different very very well. (aka, they arent all the same style). but if we are going to nitpick and find a "negative" i STILL dont like that midfield (and this is only because they are stacked in the other two sections of the pitch). splitting hairs but dont get me started on Pogba & Adrien I know ALL TOO WELL Siss & Kante hold their own in EPL, need not say any more. their GK Lloris is quality & has been around FOREVER too. its "weird" thinking the titlists might not even win their own group. but it is what it is.

Hungary - Id tell anyone to heed caution if you think Hungarians will get thumped 3 times. first of all, theyre coached by one of our own (Rossi) whom took over duties after they failed to reach WC. and hes one of those old-school, defensive minded types. after Hungarians success in previous euros, they plummeted due to all that infighting within their federation, dropped 30+ spots and in an absolute mess. Rossi has provided stability and Hungarians have steadily been improving since he took over in '18. but they wont have their best player and leading scorer for this tourney (Dominik); for those keen to remember, he was one of Haavlands running mates when Salzburg was tearing up europe few years ago (hes now with Leipzig). Hungarians are very well organized in the back, but for THIS group? if Andorra, Bulgaria, Latvia, & Azerbajan can score against them.... (voice falling off) I could see them catching those Portuguese draw specialists in the opener. and who knows, if Germans win their first two they could 'relax' in final match vs Hungarians. problem is, I cant see them scoring, not with Rossis setup. unless he woke up this week and decided to switch things around.

no props from this group. can either be the highest scoring Group as everyone plays for goald difference vs teh Hungarians or the lowest if you think Hungary bus-park can slow everyone down + their desire to simply get the '3' points and save energy.