Euro 2012....

Like I said earlier in this thread - they gave up 5 to Switzerland WITHOUT THE BAYERN PLAYERS.  Thats 8 guys.  thats like saying the Heat lost without Lebron, Wade, and Bosh. 

Marco Van Basten is entitled to his opinion.  Im not a fan of Mertesacker either.  But to bring up the Switz game and ignore all of the qualifying games is just selective memory.

We're do you live Van?  You're profile says Equitorial New Guniea.  Just Curious.  Great Writeups by the way.

GL Van.

Much appreciation for all you do on Covers.

I live in the US most of the time.

Honestly, I dont see much of a quality difference between these two team.  Yes, Poland probably has better finishers than Greece.  But they are almost mirror images of each other.

I think of it like this - if Poland had to go through qualification, would they even be in the tournament?  Im not sure you could make a strong argurment that they would have beaten out any of the teams that are there.  Yes - they are at home - but that can only go so far.

GL

I might disagree with you again.  Poland made last 2 World Cups and last Euro.  Most feel that this team is much better than others in previous 10 years.

Also they are the 2nd youngest team behind Germany @ this event. 

-obviously this is just a discussion and opinions.  We will see the true colors on the field tomorrow.

Van-very good article. (read below)

It remains to be seen how the process of today’s Euro 2012 draw will be structured, although we can assume it will be convoluted and drawn-out – certainly with long speeches and explanations, and possibly cultural dances from the two host countries.

Often, the first draw involves deciding which groups the seeds go into – A, B, C or D – before determining which sides anyone will actually play. As it happens, this time around Poland have already been assigned to group A, whilst fellow hosts Ukraine have been placed in group D.

When this first draw is made, the commentators often say something along the lines of “At this stage the draw means nothing, it doesn’t really matter which group we’re in, it matters which sides we play.”

But is that true? There is surely a clear advantage (whether or not you’re the seeds) from being in Group A rather than in Group D. For this tournament, a side in Group A that progresses to the final will play six times in 24 days – for a side in Group D, it will be six times in 21 days.

Of course, the obvious counter-argument is that a side in Group D has extra time to prepare for the tournament, which is certainly true. But then, so will that team’s group opponents, so it’s no real advantage. Besides, whenever a player is interviewed before his first game of the tournament, he almost always speaks of the frustration of watching everyone else play whilst sitting around, and is desperate to go out there and get his own campaign underway.

Spain won Euro 2008 despite being in Group D (and did the same in World Cup 2010 from Group H) – which indicates that starting late isn’t a barrier to success. However, there’s too many variables to say that this disproves the theory that going first is better.

Semi-finals crucial

Because of the structure of this tournament, being drawn in Group A or B will be particularly important at the semi-final stage. The two sides that get to the semis from A and B (they could, of course, be from the same group) will face a side from groups C and D having had two extra days’ rest between the quarter-final and semi-final stage.

The first semi-final on the 27th June will be played between a side who played on the 21st against a side who played on the 23rd. Likewise, the second semi-final on the 28th of June will be played between a side who played on the 22nd against a side who played on the 24th. The tournament is structured this way to prevent it being spilt into two halves (which would mean certain combinations of finalists aren’t possible from the start, like in World Cup 2002 or Euro 2008), but two days’ extra rest is a huge difference at that stage.

In fact, no knockout games will be held with both sides having had the same amount of time to prepare. The graph below shows how many days rest each qualifier will have compared to their opponent going into each game.

the semi-finals of Euro 2004. Then, the two sides with more rest, Portugal and Greece, beat the two side with less rest, Holland the Czech Republic. We ended up with a final featuring two sides from Group A.

Summary

If you win group A, you have, in total, four days rest against your three knockout opponents. If you win Group D, you’re always having to play catch-up.

Its possible.  Lets put it this way - I can get 1750 now and Im not adding on.

Im not thrilled about it, and Im not bailing out either. I still think at their price they are probably a decent bet.

Luke - already read that article.  I read every word on that site every day.

The funny thing about that theory is that Spain won the WC out of the very last group - so the most recent evidence we have is that it didnt matter.  But it is interesting.

Poland did not make WC2010.    But I understand your viewpoint. 

Great question Van...and to me the answer is absolutely not. Here are the WC 2010 qualifying groups for Greece and Poland:

con'td

Greece finished a close second to Switzerland and WON 1-0 away at Ukraine in the playoff.  The Greeks are no strangers to big games. 

Poland finished only ahead of San Marino in their group.  Yes, this was three years ago but not that much has changed that would allow for such a huge swing. 

The ELO ratings are much more accurate than FIFA's rankings and those have the Greeks at 25 and Poland at 35.  Is homefield really worth that much?...I guess we'll see in less than 24 hrs.