Posted:
#701
Man its like a pro team vs a highschool team
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Euro 2012....
Great call on a high scoring game!
Posted:
#705
Quote Originally Posted by genederble:
so what do we need to happen for Italy to advance to the knock out round??
so what do we need to happen for Italy to advance to the knock out round??
I believe Italy must win their game and hope Spain wins. If Croatia ties, it should come down to goal differential. Typical Italians, although I don't understand the breakdowns in their defense. No Maldini or Cannavaro in sight to fortify that back line.
0
Posted:
#706
Results:
10 - 2.5 - 1 WLP
+12.00 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
Futures:
Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 units
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 units
England not to win the group at -210. 2 units
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 units
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 units
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units
Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units.
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.
Upcoming:
15. Ukraine / France
- I keep hearing how France played vs England - the slow pace - the inability to create etc. But clearly the pace of that game was dictated by England - not France.That is not how France wants to play. And that is not how the Ukraine plays either. This theme of this game will be space. There will be space to operate where England allowed very little. Ukraine gives up the space in a trade off with their counter abilities - and they dont mind just trying to outscore you. Gusev goes up just about as much as anyone in football - and leaves space behind him willingly.
I do think France has the advantage here - and will win - but in a choice between the side and the total I decided to keep it all on the total. I was very surprised to see this at 2, was expecting to see 2.5 juiced to the over. But I was tempted to put money on France as well. So for me it is Ukr / Fra over 2 -120 for 3 units. Most likely result France 2-1.
16. Sweden / England: England has me nervous. I am still a big seller on their talent - but I do believe they are playing a system - the only system - that they can possibly have success with - and they seem to be playing it well. France had no ideas in the second half - and resorted to just shooting from range. France simply could not break down the 2 banks of 4 for England - which by the way have been the most organized of any team in the tournament. Every time France came down - you could freeze your dvr and count "1, 2, 3, 4" times 2 sitting back, compact, and no space between. That is hard to break down.
But it is also hard to score out of that formation - unless you are OK with getting 3 shots hoping to score on 1 of them. The balls came out of the back up to Young or Wellbeck who were often left facing 5 defenders by themselves. Not going to work too often.
Sweden looked dangerous to the extremes against Ukraine - dangerous in the form of Ibrahimovic - and dangerous also in the back as they gave up way too much space and too many chances for the Ukraine. This is not the Swedish way.
So for me - if England come out - play the same style - play for a draw and hope Rooney against Ukraine is their ticket to the next round - they will be hard to score on. But being able to take a half goal in this one with Swe - I fell pretty good about that. I only hope that when England get their limited chances - Sweden limits the quality of those chances - which definitely scares me.
Im going with Swe +.5 -130 for 1 unit. Most likely result 1-1.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#711
My opinion on Fridays game, not like you asked or care,
France - Ukraine analysis spot on love it and im gonna take half the money I was put on England and put it on this game.
I think Englands strategy was to hold the fort and steal a quality point from the group favorites and I dont think any other team in the group will. Nasri and Benzema will be set loose, look out. England think they have the advantage getting the point from France and will look to attack Ukraine and Sweden. Sweden are dangerous but I think the French attack is better and they couldnt win. I think England will dominate the game and win with the speedy wingers feeding Welbeck and Lampard in the middle. 2-0 England. The draw with France settled the nerves and I look for England to push forward through the holes in the Swedish defense.
just my opinion, Vans the man no doubt in my mind. I usually hit the plays we agree on hard and take it easy on the ones we dont because Vans the man. I just dont see England coming out in that formation or mindset they had with France. Ukraine beat Sweden 3-1...If England cant beat Sweden they dont stand a chance beating the Ukraine which means they are out.
I respect Vans picks alot and since he belive it will end in a draw or Sweden, then I will cut my wager on England in half and thank him later I guess. Good luck to all. Feel free to point and laugh now or after the game plays out just like Van said.
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Posted:
#714
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Kinda like asking "how much is a half point worth in the NFL?"
Its complicated.
First off - your lines are not unfair. But just like the NFL, a half point on a total is worth more on a game where the total is 30 than the total at 55. And then, it is worth more if it is on a key number.
In soccer - 2 is definitely a key number.
So it really comes down to your tolerance. Remember - if you bet it at -170 at 1.5 and 2, and it goes to 3 - you have done yourself a disservice. Bettors rarely look at it this way - but if you risked 170 to win 100, and it goes to 3 - you COULD HAVE made MORE profit for the same risk. So while it is impossible to maximize your profit all the time - I think this game has a good chance of going to 3 - so for me I would rather lay 2.5 and get odds than lay 1.5 and give odds.
But once again - your lines are not unfair - it just comes down to tolerance. If it lands right on 2 - you will be a happy man - but remember - 2 is the ONLY number that it could land on that would make your wager worth doing. At 1, you lose more. At 3, you win less.....
Let me thank you again for your advice----your sentence at the end--"At 1, you lose more. At 3, you win less."---simplifies things. I only will have made a good bet if the total is exactly 2 goals. This is a fascinating tournament!
You're a fan of "Mad Men"----another AMC program to check out that you probably like is "Breaking Bad"---the new season premieres mid-July, something to look forward to (which is what life's all about?)
0
Posted:
#720
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Results:
10 - 2.5 - 1 WLP
+12.00 units
1. Greece +.5 at +112 1 unit - WIN
2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units - WIN
3. Dutch -170 for 2 units - LOSS
4. Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit - WIN
5. Germany under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit - WIN
6. Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units - WIN
7. Croatia -.5 +120 for 1.5 units - WIN
8. France PK -120 5 units - PUSH
9. Swe/Ukr over 2 -126 3 units - WIN
10. Russia +142 3 units - LOSS
11. Czech PK and -.5 +108 1.5 units - WIN
12. Portugal -.5 +102 for 2 units - WIN
13. Italy Pk and -.5 for 4 units - HALF LOSS
14. Spain -1.5 -110 for 2 units - WIN
Futures:
Italy to win the tournament +1425. 2 units
England to come in last in group D anywhere from +500 to +600. 3 units
England not to win the group at -210. 2 units
England to go under 5.5 points in the group anywhere from PK to -150. 3 units
Ukraine to advance from group D +145. 2 units
Russia to win group A +170. 3 units
Republic of Ireland to finish last in Group C -125. 3 units.
Denmark to finish last in group B -167. 2 units.
Upcoming:
15. Ukraine / France
- I keep hearing how France played vs England - the slow pace - the inability to create etc. But clearly the pace of that game was dictated by England - not France.That is not how France wants to play. And that is not how the Ukraine plays either. This theme of this game will be space. There will be space to operate where England allowed very little. Ukraine gives up the space in a trade off with their counter abilities - and they dont mind just trying to outscore you. Gusev goes up just about as much as anyone in football - and leaves space behind him willingly.
I do think France has the advantage here - and will win - but in a choice between the side and the total I decided to keep it all on the total. I was very surprised to see this at 2, was expecting to see 2.5 juiced to the over. But I was tempted to put money on France as well. So for me it is Ukr / Fra over 2 -120 for 3 units. Most likely result France 2-1.
16. Sweden / England: England has me nervous. I am still a big seller on their talent - but I do believe they are playing a system - the only system - that they can possibly have success with - and they seem to be playing it well. France had no ideas in the second half - and resorted to just shooting from range. France simply could not break down the 2 banks of 4 for England - which by the way have been the most organized of any team in the tournament. Every time France came down - you could freeze your dvr and count "1, 2, 3, 4" times 2 sitting back, compact, and no space between. That is hard to break down.
But it is also hard to score out of that formation - unless you are OK with getting 3 shots hoping to score on 1 of them. The balls came out of the back up to Young or Wellbeck who were often left facing 5 defenders by themselves. Not going to work too often.
Sweden looked dangerous to the extremes against Ukraine - dangerous in the form of Ibrahimovic - and dangerous also in the back as they gave up way too much space and too many chances for the Ukraine. This is not the Swedish way.
So for me - if England come out - play the same style - play for a draw and hope Rooney against Ukraine is their ticket to the next round - they will be hard to score on. But being able to take a half goal in this one with Swe - I fell pretty good about that. I only hope that when England get their limited chances - Sweden limits the quality of those chances - which definitely scares me.
Im going with Swe +.5 -130 for 1 unit. Most likely result 1-1.
Doesn't playing half a unit each on Sweden and Draw get you the same thing? Also, those are +200 or more.
0
Posted:
#721
Quote Originally Posted by YouHaveHIA:
Doesn't playing half a unit each on Sweden and Draw get you the same thing? Also, those are +200 or more.
No, it does not.
A +.5 line means that you will win in case of a draw and in case of a Swedish win.
In other words, you cover two of three possible scenarios.
Were you to play both Swedish win and a draw separately, you would look at a win and a loss or if you are unlucky, at two losses.
I am playing Sweden as well tonight on the Handicap and am obviously looking forward to a good clash!!
0
Posted:
#722
Quote Originally Posted by Bepster:
No, it does not.
A +.5 line means that you will win in case of a draw and in case of a Swedish win.
In other words, you cover two of three possible scenarios.
Were you to play both Swedish win and a draw separately, you would look at a win and a loss or if you are unlucky, at two losses.
I am playing Sweden as well tonight on the Handicap and am obviously looking forward to a good clash!!
My book has sweden +.5 (-150), sweden win +240, draw +225. A sweden win or draw stilll nets me positive money. I lose 1/2 unit on one bet but win 1.125 or 1.2 units on the other. If sweden loses, i lose 1 unit. But if i play +.5 (-150) and sweden loses, i lose 1.5 units. If they win or draw, i win 1 unit.
0
Posted:
#723
Quote Originally Posted by YouHaveHIA:
My book has sweden +.5 (-150), sweden win +240, draw +225. A sweden win or draw stilll nets me positive money. I lose 1/2 unit on one bet but win 1.125 or 1.2 units on the other. If sweden loses, i lose 1 unit. But if i play +.5 (-150) and sweden loses, i lose 1.5 units. If they win or draw, i win 1 unit.
Wow, yes. In that case I believe your calculations are correct. The line as moved quite dramatically since Van posted and current line is actually at +.25 which in my opinion is not acceptable.
I'll definitely look into splitting my wager as well. Good catch!
0
Posted:
#724
Quote Originally Posted by YouHaveHIA:
My book has sweden +.5 (-150), sweden win +240, draw +225. A sweden win or draw stilll nets me positive money. I lose 1/2 unit on one bet but win 1.125 or 1.2 units on the other. If sweden loses, i lose 1 unit. But if i play +.5 (-150) and sweden loses, i lose 1.5 units. If they win or draw, i win 1 unit.
Quickly, your math is wrong. At +240 and +225, it is -151 to take +.5.
Work through your math again. Not enough time for me to explain where you went wrong.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#725
Quote Originally Posted by LuckyLuke:
van- I know it's a day early but what you think of Poland vs Czech Rep and Russia-Greece. You agree that Pol and Rus win?
van- I know it's a day early but what you think of Poland vs Czech Rep and Russia-Greece. You agree that Pol and Rus win?
I am leaving tomorrow early hence the question.
Waiting to hear definitive news on Rosicky.... Will comment on these games right after todays games - if not earlier.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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