Posted:
#26
The rest of the first round match analysis would be great. Thanks Van
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Euro 2012....
Posted:
#30
Great thread Van!
A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.
Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.
Thanks and good luck!
A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.
Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.
Thanks and good luck!
0
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:
Great thread Van!
A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.
Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.
Thanks and good luck!
Great thread Van!
A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.
Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.
Thanks and good luck!
Pinny has them all up. Take a look under "Euro 2012 Futures". All there and more...
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0
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:
Great thread Van!
A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.
Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.
Thanks and good luck!
Great thread Van!
A couple of questions....what book would you recommend for your futures? Pinny doesn't seem to have any of them up yet. 5D has most of them but seems to be missing England under 5.5 points and England not to win the group.
Also, is 3 units likely to be your largest bet of the tournament? I'm trying to scale my bets accordingly.
Thanks and good luck!
Usually 5 would be my largest. I have 5 on France vs England in the opening game of Group D.
Game bets usually range between 1 and 5 units.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#41
Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:
hey captain, germany -107 vs portugal seems too easy. what do you think?
hey captain, germany -107 vs portugal seems too easy. what do you think?
First game for both, otherwise I would say yes. In form, Germany is better than a half goal better than Portugal - but this game has me nervous.....
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0
Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:
thoughts on wc qualies tomorrow?
World Cup Qualifying South-America
thoughts on wc qualies tomorrow?
| 151 Venezuela (WC-Qual) | +1044 | |||||
| 152 Uruguay (WC-Qual) | -325 | |||||
| +432 | ||||||
| 154 Chile (WC-Qual) | pk -128 | +151 | ||||
| 155 Bolivia (WC-Qual) | pk +113 | +192 | ||||
| +235 | ||||||
| 157 Ecuador (WC-Qual) | +1348 | |||||
| 158 Argentina (WC-Qual) | -427 | |||||
| +485 |
I would lean to all 3 dogs on the asian.
Vene +1.5
Bolivia PK +115
Equador +2
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0
Posted:
#45
Tell me I'm reading too much into this...
Netherlands / Denmark: Over 2½ +106, Under 2½ -118
Netherlands Team Total: Over 1½ -123, Under 1½ +109
Denmark Team Total: Over ½ -133, Under ½ +118
I'm only asking because I've found team totals to be a relatively effective way of capping game totals whenever there's a major discrepancy in the line like this, and you're obviously more versed in "hidden messages" from the linesmakers than most of us...
Netherlands / Denmark: Over 2½ +106, Under 2½ -118
Netherlands Team Total: Over 1½ -123, Under 1½ +109
Denmark Team Total: Over ½ -133, Under ½ +118
I'm only asking because I've found team totals to be a relatively effective way of capping game totals whenever there's a major discrepancy in the line like this, and you're obviously more versed in "hidden messages" from the linesmakers than most of us...
0
Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by hugh613:
Tell me I'm reading too much into this...
Netherlands / Denmark: Over 2½ +106, Under 2½ -118
Netherlands Team Total: Over 1½ -123, Under 1½ +109
Denmark Team Total: Over ½ -133, Under ½ +118
I'm only asking because I've found team totals to be a relatively effective way of capping game totals whenever there's a major discrepancy in the line like this, and you're obviously more versed in "hidden messages" from the linesmakers than most of us...
Tell me I'm reading too much into this...
Netherlands / Denmark: Over 2½ +106, Under 2½ -118
Netherlands Team Total: Over 1½ -123, Under 1½ +109
Denmark Team Total: Over ½ -133, Under ½ +118
I'm only asking because I've found team totals to be a relatively effective way of capping game totals whenever there's a major discrepancy in the line like this, and you're obviously more versed in "hidden messages" from the linesmakers than most of us...
Before I get off on a tangent in the wrong direction with math - tell me specifically what you are thinking......
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by steinmans80:
Thanks for all the info Van!!!
Any insight on who you think will be the top goal scorer?
And do you think Benzema has a chance?
Whoever will play in the most games is where I would start. Benzema have a chance? Sure. About the same as anyone up there I guess.
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0
Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I just meant it's odd to see the game total juiced under, yet have both team totals suggest the game is going over (obviously, that's not the way it typically is).Before I get off on a tangent in the wrong direction with math - tell me specifically what you are thinking......
So I guess my question is: do you think the linesmakers sometimes inadvertently tip their hands, or am I seeing something that isn't really there?
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Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by hugh613:
I just meant it's odd to see the game total juiced under, yet have both team totals suggest the game is going over (obviously, that's not the way it typically is).
So I guess my question is: do you think the linesmakers sometimes inadvertently tip their hands, or am I seeing something that isn't really there?
I just meant it's odd to see the game total juiced under, yet have both team totals suggest the game is going over (obviously, that's not the way it typically is).
So I guess my question is: do you think the linesmakers sometimes inadvertently tip their hands, or am I seeing something that isn't really there?
Not tipping their hand at all; do the math.
Let's say that (for simplicity) each line is at -120 ish, implying that there is around a 55% chance of that bet being a winner. Thus, the Expected Value of both the Netherlands total goals and Denmark's total goals are going to be just slightly over 1.5 (maybe 1.65) and 0.5 (0.65) respectively. Adding them together, you would still get a total Expected Value for the game below 2.5 (2.30). You could do the actual math if you wanted but I think the point is illustrated just fine with estimated numbers. You can't just say that Over 0.5 Denmark goals is juiced -133 therefore the books expect them to score.
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