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Copa America Thread....

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Posted: #1
I was trying to make a long writeup - but just ran out of time.  Real life getting in the way.

I will post all of my Copa picks here - and hope to have a longer writeup up for the Euros this coming week....

I always post current widely available lines as of time of posting...

I am going to take a very small shot with Colombia to win the tournament at 11-1.  Risking .5 unit.

Carlos Bacca to be leading scorer at 20-1 for .2 unit

Mexico to win Group C at +110 for 1 unit

Colombia to win Group A at +135 for 1 unit

In tonights (Fridays) opener...

I got Columbia at basically a dead PK before the recent line move.  At PK -130 it is hard to recommend.  Heart says USA but head looks at the defense and wonders how we will cope with Colombia.  So at PK -130, it is a 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit.

Saturday:

Paraguay PK -121 to win 2 units
Peru / Haiti over 2 and 2.5 +101 risking 2 units
Ecuador +.5 -102 to win 3 units

I will be updating the thread throughout the tournament.  

GL all.





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Posted: #2
With you on Colombia PK.
BOL Vanzack 
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Posted: #3
Welcome back mate this guy a class act tailing for sure.
 
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Posted: #4
i was just about the bet Colombia to win Group A but thought i'd check this forum first.  good to see you like it.

good luck.  
 
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Posted: #5
GL Vanzack 
 
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Posted: #6
BOL Vanzack

Say can you answer a question for me?

If I win a BOMB play at the casino worth over 10k do I have to pay taxes on it? Even if I spent the winnings on Tilapia 
 
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Posted: #7
Vanzak       Always appreciate your insight. Im with you on all except Ecuador. Love Bacca for Top Goal scorer, although im seeing a few of us with similar sentiments ( Bubba is also lovin Bacca ).

Enjoy and good luck

 
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Posted: #8
Neymar's replacement...

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/36442925
 
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Posted: #9
No tax bro. I used  to cash ticket 20.000 k
 
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Posted: #10
Thanks all.

Colombia with a big late line move here - down to about +135.

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Posted: #11
BOL Vanzack

 Have a great Copa & Euros
 
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Posted: #12
Bol van 
 
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Posted: #13

Always look forward to Van's thread in the major soccer tournaments.  

Had Colombia in today's game, but came away thinking that the U.S. had competed better than most people thought.  A corner kick & PK was the difference in tonight's game.  Besides, the U.S. had countless free kicks in vulnerable areas , but could not capitalize. 

Will look forward to Van's thoughts, but think U.S. played much better and competed  than the final score indicated.   In other words, if not for the set pieces, they could have won this game.

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Always look forward to Van's thread in the major soccer tournaments.  

Had Colombia in today's game, but came away thinking that the U.S. had competed better than most people thought.  A corner kick & PK was the difference in tonight's game.  Besides, the U.S. had countless free kicks in vulnerable areas , but could not capitalize. 

Will look forward to Van's thoughts, but think U.S. played much better and competed  than the final score indicated.   In other words, if not for the set pieces, they could have won this game.

 


Honestly, I see things 180 degrees the other way.

I saw an uninspired, tactical disgrace.  I heard what some of the announcers - and what Klinsman said afterwards - but I totally disagree.  It wasnt just "two set pieces that made the difference" for me.

Everyone seems to forget that the reason the USA had possession for stretches of the game is because Colombia allowed them to.  It wasn't dangerous possession for the USA - it was a lot of useless possession.  The game has changed in the last 10 years - since Spain and Barca play the way they do - the counterattack has become a strategy instead of the only option available to some teams.  Colombia chooses to play this way.  So it was Colombia who dictated the whole game and allowed the US possession - because it was harmless - and when you are up 2-0 - you can sit back and watch the clock tick as your opponent fumbles around with as much possession late in the game as they want.

Some of the most disturbing passages of play for me were the times that Colombia did choose to possess the ball - and just sat back and had passing drills with their center backs WITH ZERO PRESSURE from the US attack.  At one point (around the 60 minute mark), I think Colombia strung together like 30 passes or so - just bouncing it around their backfield - with absolutely nothing from a team that was down 2-0 at the time.

The high press will win this tournament.  It is the strategy du jour in football - and until teams adjust (which they haven't) - it is what will likely win these tournaments.  It is also particularly hard to play against a high press in these international tournaments because there is such a short amount of time to organize and get to know your teammates.  So why didnt the USA press last night?  You can bet your a*s that Colombia - if they didnt score 8 minutes in to the game - would have terrorized the USA defensive line with a high press - BUT THEY DIDNT HAVE TO.

If the game was 0-0, you would have seen a whole different Colombia strategy.  But at 2-0 - you saw nothing from the US in terms of strategy - it was almost like they were OK with losing 2-0.  Klinsman waited for the 60th minute (or so) to make any changes - and they were largely ineffective.  

Saying the USA played even is almost the American Football equivalent of a team that goes up 28-0 and then coasts to a 42-14 win.  Did they really play even for most of the game or did the team in the lead always have control?

I will be looking for teams that actively high press and counterattack to bet on in both tournaments - especially early.  I watched Chile do this against Mexico the other day - and for 65 minutes of the game Mexico looked helpless (mexico won 1-0 on  a late goal for what I felt was a very lucky result).  

For the first time - I feel like Klinsman needs to go.  We arent making progress.  He is a tinkerer - and we have players who need to get consistent experience.  But most of all - he has no plan B.  When things go sideways - the best managers adjust - he doesnt.  And his idiotic comments in the press dont help with confidence that he actually knows what he is doing.
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Honestly, I see things 180 degrees the other way.

I saw an uninspired, tactical disgrace.  I heard what some of the announcers - and what Klinsman said afterwards - but I totally disagree.  It wasnt just "two set pieces that made the difference" for me.

Everyone seems to forget that the reason the USA had possession for stretches of the game is because Colombia allowed them to.  It wasn't dangerous possession for the USA - it was a lot of useless possession.  The game has changed in the last 10 years - since Spain and Barca play the way they do - the counterattack has become a strategy instead of the only option available to some teams.  Colombia chooses to play this way.  So it was Colombia who dictated the whole game and allowed the US possession - because it was harmless - and when you are up 2-0 - you can sit back and watch the clock tick as your opponent fumbles around with as much possession late in the game as they want.

Some of the most disturbing passages of play for me were the times that Colombia did choose to possess the ball - and just sat back and had passing drills with their center backs WITH ZERO PRESSURE from the US attack.  At one point (around the 60 minute mark), I think Colombia strung together like 30 passes or so - just bouncing it around their backfield - with absolutely nothing from a team that was down 2-0 at the time.

The high press will win this tournament.  It is the strategy du jour in football - and until teams adjust (which they haven't) - it is what will likely win these tournaments.  It is also particularly hard to play against a high press in these international tournaments because there is such a short amount of time to organize and get to know your teammates.  So why didnt the USA press last night?  You can bet your a*s that Colombia - if they didnt score 8 minutes in to the game - would have terrorized the USA defensive line with a high press - BUT THEY DIDNT HAVE TO.

If the game was 0-0, you would have seen a whole different Colombia strategy.  But at 2-0 - you saw nothing from the US in terms of strategy - it was almost like they were OK with losing 2-0.  Klinsman waited for the 60th minute (or so) to make any changes - and they were largely ineffective.  

Saying the USA played even is almost the American Football equivalent of a team that goes up 28-0 and then coasts to a 42-14 win.  Did they really play even for most of the game or did the team in the lead always have control?

I will be looking for teams that actively high press and counterattack to bet on in both tournaments - especially early.  I watched Chile do this against Mexico the other day - and for 65 minutes of the game Mexico looked helpless (mexico won 1-0 on  a late goal for what I felt was a very lucky result).  

For the first time - I feel like Klinsman needs to go.  We arent making progress.  He is a tinkerer - and we have players who need to get consistent experience.  But most of all - he has no plan B.  When things go sideways - the best managers adjust - he doesnt.  And his idiotic comments in the press dont help with confidence that he actually knows what he is doing.

Well said.  

Clearly our level of talent is not of that with most teams of the Caliber of Colombia.  But I question whether Klinsman has any real idea of how to form a plan of attack with these players.  You used a football reference so I will as well.  If you have the personnel for a 3-4 but you play a 4-3, you aren't going to get favorable results.  I not only agree with you that Klinsman has no plan B, I question whether he has an effective plan A.  

I have realistic expectations with the talent that is on the American squad.  Our best athletes are not playing soccer, I can live with that.  But I expect a better showing than I saw last night. It wasn't the 2-0 scoreline that got me, it was the way they played the entire game.  

Sorry to hijack your thread bud. I just had to get that off my chest after listening to that annoying bs spewed by those biased American announcers last night....  

Nice hit and BOL in the rest of the tournament  
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by wheaty :


Well said.  

Clearly our level of talent is not of that with most teams of the Caliber of Colombia.  But I question whether Klinsman has any real idea of how to form a plan of attack with these players.  You used a football reference so I will as well.  If you have the personnel for a 3-4 but you play a 4-3, you aren't going to get favorable results.  I not only agree with you that Klinsman has no plan B, I question whether he has an effective plan A.  

I have realistic expectations with the talent that is on the American squad.  Our best athletes are not playing soccer, I can live with that.  But I expect a better showing than I saw last night. It wasn't the 2-0 scoreline that got me, it was the way they played the entire game.  

Sorry to hijack your thread bud. I just had to get that off my chest after listening to that annoying bs spewed by those biased American announcers last night....  

Nice hit and BOL in the rest of the tournament  

Great comments - always welcome.

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Posted: #17
That early score put the weaker team at a disadvantage.  Columbia was smart and took the weak team to the woodshed. They would love the draw.  The weak team couldn't give that to them so they just won it outright.
 
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Posted: #18
Totally agree with your analysis of last nights game, I thought the USA had one of the worst performances I have ever seen from them and the quality gap between the sides was in fact massive. Colombia walked through the game and barely broke a sweat and at no point did it appear the USA were getting back into the game. When you look at these two teams one is loaded with CREATIVITY, and one ISN'T. Creativity is the factor in this sport that gives any team, no matter how things are going, the opportunity to create a special moment out of nothing. There was never an inkling that the USA team had the creativity to create anything from nothing, so all we got was nothing...I can't fathom how anybody saw the game differently, but who knows, and this is coming from somebody who expected a much tighter game...
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:

Totally agree with your analysis of last nights game, I thought the USA had one of the worst performances I have ever seen from them and the quality gap between the sides was in fact massive. Colombia walked through the game and barely broke a sweat and at no point did it appear the USA were getting back into the game. When you look at these two teams one is loaded with CREATIVITY, and one ISN'T. Creativity is the factor in this sport that gives any team, no matter how things are going, the opportunity to create a special moment out of nothing. There was never an inkling that the USA team had the creativity to create anything from nothing, so all we got was nothing...I can't fathom how anybody saw the game differently, but who knows, and this is coming from somebody who expected a much tighter game...
Just seen the highlights pretty much what I expected from this USA team "no guts no glory".

Agree with you on creativity < fundamental in beating any half decent organised unit.

 
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Posted: #20
Great analysis Van..  I think it all starts with the midfield.. Michael Bradley needs to be a leader and play better.. He is a disgrace... how did he ever play at the international level is beyond me.. He looked like he came straight out of the rec league... If I was Klinsman, I would bench him and make him earn his spot back.. Playing for the national team is not a right, its a privilege.. Klinsman needs to show some balls and clean house... I honestly thought we would've had a better showing in this tournament than the world cup.. we are on our own turf for God's sake.. we are certainly not there yet and I'm still waiting for a country with 300 million+ to field a better team than these clowns.. 
 
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Posted: #21
Future Bets:
Colombia to win the tournament at 11-1.  Risking .5 unit.
Carlos Bacca to be leading scorer at 20-1 for .2 unit
Mexico to win Group C at +110 for 1 unit
Colombia to win Group A at +135 for 1 unit

Game Bets:
1.  Colombia PK -130 1.3 unit bet to win 1 unit (WIN)
2.  Paraguay PK -121 to win 2 units  (PUSH)
3.  Peru / Haiti over 2 and 2.5 +101 risking 2 units  (LOSS)
4.  Ecuador +.5 -102 to win 3 units  (WIN)

Sunday:
5.  I really like Jamaica today.  Why would I take a concacaf team when so far they are 0-3 with 0 goals scored?  Because Venezuela.  Jamaica is really organized in the back (even though Wes Morgan probably wont play today) - and can complete in low scoring grind it out type of matches.  Venezuela is very leaky at the back - conceding 17 goals in 6 games so far in qualifying for WC2018.

Another low scoring match likely - with a draw a likely result.

Jamaica +.5 -107 for 3 units

6.  I wish Suarez was playing today.  But even with him on the sideline - I am going with Uruguay here against an in form Mexican side.  I have seen something in Mexico several times that makes me think they cant handle high pressure - and Uruguay (would be much better with Suarez) should be able to press them in to mistakes.  Too much value here in a veteran team.

Uruguay PK +125 2 units.

7.  I am an idiot for betting another over - but if any match is going over it is this Bolivia Panama game.  I am sure I will learn my lesson with betting any over in first rounds of these tournaments - but cant resist.

Bolivia Panama over 2 -105 1 unit

8.  Is it possible that Argentina is underpriced here?  I think so.  If there is one team that can handle the Chilean blitz up top it is Argentina - no problems here laying the .5 goal +106.

Argentina -.5 +106 2 units

GL all.

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Posted: #22
A few thoughts...

It is really tough to watch 6 hours of soccer and only 1 goal.  The Brazil / Ecuador match was good - but the other two were pretty terrible - with the CR / Paraguay match topping the list of why most Americans can't stand soccer.

The announcers are just awful.  I realize they get spread thin during these tournaments - but the in game commentary is silly.


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Posted: #23
Hey Van... I'm new to betting soccer but Ive been watching for many years... You stated above your paraguay PK was a push... Paraguay ended up 0-0.. is there a way you can choose a side and push? like I said, I am new to this and thought possibly it was like most other sports.. thanks in advance.. 
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Day-trader1:

Hey Van... I'm new to betting soccer but Ive been watching for many years... You stated above your paraguay PK was a push... Paraguay ended up 0-0.. is there a way you can choose a side and push? like I said, I am new to this and thought possibly it was like most other sports.. thanks in advance.. 

Yes - when you bet "PK" or on any 2 way line that is even - you push on a draw.

Today - I also bet Uruguay PK - that means I am protected by the draw.

It is really important when betting soccer to understand the different wager types.  I would have not bet Paraguay -.5 yesterday because I thought the draw was also a high probability.

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Posted: #25
thanks so much Van... 
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