And some early thoughts on today's CL action.... can you spell PUBLIC OVERREACTION? Those of you who follow me more closely know what will be going down, just waiting for the best lines.
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And some early thoughts on today's CL action.... can you spell PUBLIC OVERREACTION? Those of you who follow me more closely know what will be going down, just waiting for the best lines.
I'm taking this now as there is practically 0% these lines get better. Regarding the Arsenal game.... I don't care who's playing, I don't care about the form, I don't care what kind of records(good or bad) they have been breaking. The simple fact is Arsenal +2 opened at 1.30/-333 and now it's at 1.73/-138. That's a 2$ move on the spread!!!! On a knock out round CL game????? I love public perception. And were not talking some gigantic +2000 dog moving to +1800.
If that alone wasn't enough people quickly forgot Arsenal were the better team early in the first game and missed the penalty(OK Bayern missed one too later on) and that in this same spot last year Bayern, after crushing Arsenal in the first game, went through by the skin of their teeth on away goals.
Regardless of weather I win or lose this one, please God let me find a move like this every day and I know I will die a rich man. And for those of you who don't remember, I had the largest bet this year on Bayer ML in the first game, so I'm not biased and don't hate German teams either.
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Arsenal +2/PSG ML double 2.42
I'm taking this now as there is practically 0% these lines get better. Regarding the Arsenal game.... I don't care who's playing, I don't care about the form, I don't care what kind of records(good or bad) they have been breaking. The simple fact is Arsenal +2 opened at 1.30/-333 and now it's at 1.73/-138. That's a 2$ move on the spread!!!! On a knock out round CL game????? I love public perception. And were not talking some gigantic +2000 dog moving to +1800.
If that alone wasn't enough people quickly forgot Arsenal were the better team early in the first game and missed the penalty(OK Bayern missed one too later on) and that in this same spot last year Bayern, after crushing Arsenal in the first game, went through by the skin of their teeth on away goals.
Regardless of weather I win or lose this one, please God let me find a move like this every day and I know I will die a rich man. And for those of you who don't remember, I had the largest bet this year on Bayer ML in the first game, so I'm not biased and don't hate German teams either.
I really respect your write up and point of view, and the value of such bet on Arsenal.
But I consider myself an overreacting guy as I'm on Bayern -1.5
I think Arsenal can challenge Bayern during 60min but Bayern can score so much goals in no-time it's impressive, I can't go against them and I think they will smash Arsenal in the last 30 min.
Bayern -1.5 FT -127 and -1 2nd H +120
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I really respect your write up and point of view, and the value of such bet on Arsenal.
But I consider myself an overreacting guy as I'm on Bayern -1.5
I think Arsenal can challenge Bayern during 60min but Bayern can score so much goals in no-time it's impressive, I can't go against them and I think they will smash Arsenal in the last 30 min.
I already spoke about the situation in te Bayern.Arenal game and people are again mixing league form with internationals and those two don't mix well together. This is simple value betting 101. U3.5 opened at 1.50/-200, I got it at 1.87/-115. You can do the math.
AZ haven't been exactly convincing in their continental performances, but they do what they need to do to qualify for the next round and in this case, they need to win the home game to accomplish that.
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Bayern U3.5/AZ ML 3.31
I already spoke about the situation in te Bayern.Arenal game and people are again mixing league form with internationals and those two don't mix well together. This is simple value betting 101. U3.5 opened at 1.50/-200, I got it at 1.87/-115. You can do the math.
AZ haven't been exactly convincing in their continental performances, but they do what they need to do to qualify for the next round and in this case, they need to win the home game to accomplish that.
I can understand people taking Bayern. The stats say they will win this game. They have been killing everyone. But when book opened those lines they knew they won't have both sides in balance on this one and yet opened only at -1 juiced./-1.25 +money. That just has to be a red light. And in addition that I haven't seen or heard one bookie moan about the 80%+/90%+ action on Bayern (& over) they are taking. Not one single word in about three weeks. So I have to side with the quants in this one.
BOL.
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Vicente.....
I can understand people taking Bayern. The stats say they will win this game. They have been killing everyone. But when book opened those lines they knew they won't have both sides in balance on this one and yet opened only at -1 juiced./-1.25 +money. That just has to be a red light. And in addition that I haven't seen or heard one bookie moan about the 80%+/90%+ action on Bayern (& over) they are taking. Not one single word in about three weeks. So I have to side with the quants in this one.
No mixing league form here. Not sure if anyone told you yet.......Bayern are the defending Champions League Champions. They have their two best players back today in Ribery and Schweinsteiger. Are Bayern heavily juiced and Bet ? Of course they are. But it's for good reason. No PUBLIC OVERREACTION here. I don't bet on 9 good minutes of football at home either. This same Arsenal team lost 1 - 0 at Stoke and 5 - 1 at Liverpool in their last 2 road games. This ain't Kansas Dorothy, it's a HUGE step up when you travel to Munich.
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No mixing league form here. Not sure if anyone told you yet.......Bayern are the defending Champions League Champions. They have their two best players back today in Ribery and Schweinsteiger. Are Bayern heavily juiced and Bet ? Of course they are. But it's for good reason. No PUBLIC OVERREACTION here. I don't bet on 9 good minutes of football at home either. This same Arsenal team lost 1 - 0 at Stoke and 5 - 1 at Liverpool in their last 2 road games. This ain't Kansas Dorothy, it's a HUGE step up when you travel to Munich.
I feel like Bayern already had their let down last season against Arsenal and that they won't make the mistake twice
After this alert, they smashed Barcelona on BOTH 1st and 2nd leg without tanking like against Arsenal because they were aware that you have to play both legs 100%.
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Franz & Brit
I feel like Bayern already had their let down last season against Arsenal and that they won't make the mistake twice
After this alert, they smashed Barcelona on BOTH 1st and 2nd leg without tanking like against Arsenal because they were aware that you have to play both legs 100%.
I feel like Bayern already had their let down last season against Arsenal and that they won't make the mistake twice
After this alert, they smashed Barcelona on BOTH 1st and 2nd leg without tanking like against Arsenal because they were aware that you have to play both legs 100%.
.
Fact.......and once again, that loss was without Ribery and Schweinsteiger. I also love how people have to refer to a game played a year ago, to make a point. I guess when you only lose once a year, they have nothing else to draw from.
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Quote Originally Posted by Vicente87:
Franz & Brit
I feel like Bayern already had their let down last season against Arsenal and that they won't make the mistake twice
After this alert, they smashed Barcelona on BOTH 1st and 2nd leg without tanking like against Arsenal because they were aware that you have to play both legs 100%.
.
Fact.......and once again, that loss was without Ribery and Schweinsteiger. I also love how people have to refer to a game played a year ago, to make a point. I guess when you only lose once a year, they have nothing else to draw from.
Herr Franz, the line I took has moved from 77% chance of winning to 57% and you don't see a public overreaction in there?? You were expecting a full goal move an the asian lines for this game to hit fair value?? The bookies must be crazy, it's Xmass in March!! ... As I said in the original post, I pray to God I can find value as easily as this one each day(and if you are paying attention to my records, the heavy chalk is on I can side). BOL with your bet though.
Vicente, history has a way of repeating itself. But this shouldn't be the main point of view here, just an underlining one and looking at the bigger picture can never hurt you in the long run. One bet doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme, but constant disregard for stuff like this will eventually put you in a bad spot.
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Herr Franz, the line I took has moved from 77% chance of winning to 57% and you don't see a public overreaction in there?? You were expecting a full goal move an the asian lines for this game to hit fair value?? The bookies must be crazy, it's Xmass in March!! ... As I said in the original post, I pray to God I can find value as easily as this one each day(and if you are paying attention to my records, the heavy chalk is on I can side). BOL with your bet though.
Vicente, history has a way of repeating itself. But this shouldn't be the main point of view here, just an underlining one and looking at the bigger picture can never hurt you in the long run. One bet doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme, but constant disregard for stuff like this will eventually put you in a bad spot.
good points on both sides imo.. we are talking about a possible difference of say for example 3-1 or 3-2 for the 1.5 line.. could go either way obviously the diff is minimal esp when considering possible penalties etc.. at +2 hard to argue against arsenal generally speaking beating a team by 3 is difficult in basically any match… I for one can't go against BM simply bc they are machines and in any game can put up 5 in a blink.. thats just me though i never have a good enough reason to go against the best team in the world but i do understand it at line movement to +2, cant deny the overall wagering value esp long term..
I took the over 3 juiced yes but feel its a push at least… BM will light it up or will be at least 2-1 IMO…
BOL on both sides hope for a great game!
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good points on both sides imo.. we are talking about a possible difference of say for example 3-1 or 3-2 for the 1.5 line.. could go either way obviously the diff is minimal esp when considering possible penalties etc.. at +2 hard to argue against arsenal generally speaking beating a team by 3 is difficult in basically any match… I for one can't go against BM simply bc they are machines and in any game can put up 5 in a blink.. thats just me though i never have a good enough reason to go against the best team in the world but i do understand it at line movement to +2, cant deny the overall wagering value esp long term..
I took the over 3 juiced yes but feel its a push at least… BM will light it up or will be at least 2-1 IMO…
I like this play and am on it as well… strongest home field is serious plus the altitude and Velez sitting everyone cant see this not at least pushing..
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Quote Originally Posted by BritBull:
Libertadores: The Strongest -1 1.84 3 units
I like this play and am on it as well… strongest home field is serious plus the altitude and Velez sitting everyone cant see this not at least pushing..
A simple......." The line is being over bet, and I see value in backing Arsenal ".......should suffice.
Nobody is questioning the logic in doing so if " value " was your sole reasoning. But you certainly placed added emphasis on your posts, with plenty of bravado and innuendo. That's what I'm responding to. Then again, people actually booed Bobby Orr, Pele, Michael Jordan too. I just never saw the point personally.
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Post # 176 and #177
A simple......." The line is being over bet, and I see value in backing Arsenal ".......should suffice.
Nobody is questioning the logic in doing so if " value " was your sole reasoning. But you certainly placed added emphasis on your posts, with plenty of bravado and innuendo. That's what I'm responding to. Then again, people actually booed Bobby Orr, Pele, Michael Jordan too. I just never saw the point personally.
Franz & Vicente both on Bayern They re the best team in the world now !
BritBull on the gunners +2 is a big spread , I personally do think the gunners will put on a fight today . Even they probably will lose but I don't think they will lose by 3 .
It's a great discussion here & there's no right or wrong .
I just hope they'll score enough for my over
BOL today guys
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First time drop by BritBull's thread
Franz & Vicente both on Bayern They re the best team in the world now !
BritBull on the gunners +2 is a big spread , I personally do think the gunners will put on a fight today . Even they probably will lose but I don't think they will lose by 3 .
It's a great discussion here & there's no right or wrong .
Herr Franz, you should than try to read my posts twice before getting all worked up as I said:"I don't care who's playing, I don't care about the form, I don't care
what kind of records(good or bad) they have been breaking. The simple
fact is Arsenal +2 opened at..."
You seem very emotionally attached to your bets when it comes to Bayren games, which is never a good thing, but please do try to stick to the facts. They didn't lose their last game a year ago, they lost to City also at home in the group stage. So if I wanted some added emphasis I could easily come up with a theory that Bayern has problems with English team on home soil. If you remember they also couldn't beat Chelsea in 2012, etc.
However I couldn't make that connection, because if that were true, that would result in my wager being higher than just the 1 unit, as you can see in 3 I've got riding on The Strongest.
What does booing of Pele or Michael has to do with a bet on this game is beyond my comprehension though.
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onetime, happy
Herr Franz, you should than try to read my posts twice before getting all worked up as I said:"I don't care who's playing, I don't care about the form, I don't care
what kind of records(good or bad) they have been breaking. The simple
fact is Arsenal +2 opened at..."
You seem very emotionally attached to your bets when it comes to Bayren games, which is never a good thing, but please do try to stick to the facts. They didn't lose their last game a year ago, they lost to City also at home in the group stage. So if I wanted some added emphasis I could easily come up with a theory that Bayern has problems with English team on home soil. If you remember they also couldn't beat Chelsea in 2012, etc.
However I couldn't make that connection, because if that were true, that would result in my wager being higher than just the 1 unit, as you can see in 3 I've got riding on The Strongest.
What does booing of Pele or Michael has to do with a bet on this game is beyond my comprehension though.
So if I wanted some added emphasis I could easily come up with a theory that Bayern has problems with English team on home soil. If you remember they also couldn't beat Chelsea in 2012, etc.
Although you do have to go all the way back to '83 to find a match which Bayern won by more than 2, 17 games in between.
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Quote Originally Posted by BritBull:
So if I wanted some added emphasis I could easily come up with a theory that Bayern has problems with English team on home soil. If you remember they also couldn't beat Chelsea in 2012, etc.
Although you do have to go all the way back to '83 to find a match which Bayern won by more than 2, 17 games in between.
Once again you dodge your own responsibility and intent in post #177 with your reference "I don't care about the form, or what kind of records they have been breaking "
How about your closing statement.....
" And for those of you who don't remember, I had my largest bet of the year on Bayern ml in the first game! so I'm not biased and don't hate Germans either.
No inference of any kind .......Riiiiiggghhhht
As for all the other hype......I just assumed you were a car salesmen looking for an appropriate soap box, and Bam there was Covers
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Once again you dodge your own responsibility and intent in post #177 with your reference "I don't care about the form, or what kind of records they have been breaking "
How about your closing statement.....
" And for those of you who don't remember, I had my largest bet of the year on Bayern ml in the first game! so I'm not biased and don't hate Germans either.
No inference of any kind .......Riiiiiggghhhht
As for all the other hype......I just assumed you were a car salesmen looking for an appropriate soap box, and Bam there was Covers
Responsibility and intent in relation to what??? ROTFLMAO
The closing statement, as you refer to it, was aimed at you since you're the only person here accusing me of hating the Germans. And the winking thing at the end means I was kidding, but you do have to have a sense of humor to understand it. Unfortunately, your emotional evolvement is blinding you completely.
It amazes me to see you now refer to me as a car salesman, yet you "valued my opinion about the global game" until you misunderstood my bashing of Pep and Barca and took that as an attack on Bayern which in your case is the same as an attack on you. Funny how things change quickly around here.
And you've done all that without a single fact backing your arguments(and I don't even want to get into you not answering any of my questions). Well done sir. Well done indeed.
Now if you would please refer to post #1 which clearly states no bitching in here, so if you can't respect that please skip this thread completely.
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Responsibility and intent in relation to what??? ROTFLMAO
The closing statement, as you refer to it, was aimed at you since you're the only person here accusing me of hating the Germans. And the winking thing at the end means I was kidding, but you do have to have a sense of humor to understand it. Unfortunately, your emotional evolvement is blinding you completely.
It amazes me to see you now refer to me as a car salesman, yet you "valued my opinion about the global game" until you misunderstood my bashing of Pep and Barca and took that as an attack on Bayern which in your case is the same as an attack on you. Funny how things change quickly around here.
And you've done all that without a single fact backing your arguments(and I don't even want to get into you not answering any of my questions). Well done sir. Well done indeed.
Now if you would please refer to post #1 which clearly states no bitching in here, so if you can't respect that please skip this thread completely.
Responsibility and intent in relation to what??? ROTFLMAO
The closing statement, as you refer to it, was aimed at you since you're the only person here accusing me of hating the Germans. And the winking thing at the end means I was kidding, but you do have to have a sense of humor to understand it. Unfortunately, your emotional evolvement is blinding you completely.
It amazes me to see you now refer to me as a car salesman, yet you "valued my opinion about the global game" until you misunderstood my bashing of Pep and Barca and took that as an attack on Bayern which in your case is the same as an attack on you. Funny how things change quickly around here.
And you've done all that without a single fact backing your arguments(and I don't even want to get into you not answering any of my questions). Well done sir. Well done indeed.
Now if you would please refer to post #1 which clearly states no bitching in here, so if you can't respect that please skip this thread completely.
Exactly......... Check Post #1....You get back, what you put out. You chose to take the shots at me, not the other way around.
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Quote Originally Posted by BritBull:
Responsibility and intent in relation to what??? ROTFLMAO
The closing statement, as you refer to it, was aimed at you since you're the only person here accusing me of hating the Germans. And the winking thing at the end means I was kidding, but you do have to have a sense of humor to understand it. Unfortunately, your emotional evolvement is blinding you completely.
It amazes me to see you now refer to me as a car salesman, yet you "valued my opinion about the global game" until you misunderstood my bashing of Pep and Barca and took that as an attack on Bayern which in your case is the same as an attack on you. Funny how things change quickly around here.
And you've done all that without a single fact backing your arguments(and I don't even want to get into you not answering any of my questions). Well done sir. Well done indeed.
Now if you would please refer to post #1 which clearly states no bitching in here, so if you can't respect that please skip this thread completely.
Exactly......... Check Post #1....You get back, what you put out. You chose to take the shots at me, not the other way around.
I really respect your write up and point of view, and the value of such bet on Arsenal.
But I consider myself an overreacting guy as I'm on Bayern -1.5
I think Arsenal can challenge Bayern during 60min but Bayern can score so much goals in no-time it's impressive, I can't go against them and I think they will smash Arsenal in the last 30 min.
Bayern -1.5 FT -127 and -1 2nd H +120
Spot on man. Looking forward to the second half...have some change on BM as well and feeling as confident as if it was 1-0 :)
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Quote Originally Posted by Vicente87:
I really respect your write up and point of view, and the value of such bet on Arsenal.
But I consider myself an overreacting guy as I'm on Bayern -1.5
I think Arsenal can challenge Bayern during 60min but Bayern can score so much goals in no-time it's impressive, I can't go against them and I think they will smash Arsenal in the last 30 min.
Bayern -1.5 FT -127 and -1 2nd H +120
Spot on man. Looking forward to the second half...have some change on BM as well and feeling as confident as if it was 1-0 :)
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