The NRL Experiment

I decided midway through last season that the NRL just wasn't worth my while betting wise. For me, there's far better money making opportunities at this time of year in other sports / leagues but I'm never one to completely write off anything in terms of finding a method that will yield a +ve, so I've decided to experiment on a couple of things.

As was the case with "The 'A' League Experiment" there will be no real money involved in this, its all "paper" bets with fictional units wagered.

The first experiment will be a flat stake on every underdog each week to win at the 1-12 margin.

The second experiment will be a fade of "steam" moves, ie where the weight of money moves a line one or two points. I didn't track this trend last season but I did notice that a lot of games where money moved a line significantly went up in smoke.

So here goes, I'm a little late with tonight's games obviously but don't hang me for after-timing because, as mentioned, this is a paper bet experiment only.

Dogs at the 1-12 margins

Dragons $3.50 (1)

Cowboys $3.30 (1)

Knights $5.55 (1)

Raiders $4.50 (1)

Sharks $4.15 (1)

Warriors $4.90 (1)

Roosters $4.10 (1)

Sea Eagles $3.45 (1)

Steam move fades

Dragons +3.5 over Eels ($1.95) (1)

Broncos -1.5 over Cowboys ($1.91) (1)

Knights +12.5 over Bulldogs ($1.91) (1)

Warriors +10 over Titans ($1.91) (1)

* I'll make the criteria for a "steam" move, a movement of 1.5< points in favour of one team.

Steam move fades

Dragons +3.5 over Eels ($1.95) (1)

Broncos -1.5 over Cowboys ($1.91) (1)

Knights +12.5 over Bulldogs ($1.91) (1)

Warriors +10 over Titans ($1.91) (1)

Round 1 = 4-0 (+3.64)

Dogs at the 1-12 margins

Dragons $3.50 (1)

Cowboys $3.30 (1)

Knights $5.55 (1)

Raiders $4.50 (1)

Sharks $4.15 (1)

Warriors $4.90 (1)

Roosters $4.10 (1)

Sea Eagles $3.45 (1)

Round 1 = 2-6 (+1.05)

Round 2 Dogs at the 1-12 margin - YTD 2-6 (+1.05)

Bulldogs $4.05

Titans $3.50

Sharks $4.20

Knights $3.85

Panthers $3.60

Sea Eagles $4.45

Roosters $3.60

Broncos $3.50

Steam move fades Round 2 - YTD 4-0 (+3.64)

Titans +3.5 over Rabbitohs ($1.91)

Broncos +2.5 over Raiders ($1.91)

Round 2 Dogs at the 1-12 margin - YTD 2-6 (+1.05)

Bulldogs $4.05

Titans $3.50   

Sharks $4.20

Knights $3.85

Panthers $3.60

Sea Eagles $4.45

Roosters $3.60  

Broncos $3.50

Round 2 = 2-6 (-0.90)

Season = 4-12 (+0.15)

Steam move fades Round 2 - YTD 4-0 (+3.64)

Titans +3.5 over Rabbitohs ($1.91) 

Broncos +2.5 over Raiders ($1.91)

Round 2 = 1-1 (-0.09)

Season = 5-1 (+3.55)

   let me grab a seat....

nice work

Round 3 Dogs at the 1-12 margin - YTD: 4-12 (+0.15)

Cowboys $4.55

Tigers $3.90

Knights $3.85

Raiders $4.55

Warriors $4.05

Bulldogs $3.35

Sharks $3.50

+ Panthers $3.50

No steam move fade games weekend

Steam Move Fades Round 3

Roosters ML over Bulldogs ($1.90) (1)

* sneaks in, given the line opened at +/-1.5 and is now a pk

Above play is for the purspose of this experiment, in reality I'm over the Bulldogs this afternoon.

rare NRL play for me but can't resist this one