Super 14 Wagering Strategy

Hi guys....this hit me this season, but not in time to pull the trigger.  Let me know what you think of this strategy.

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You wait until there are four round left in the S14.  You take a look at what the Top 4 teams are on the ladder.  You then choose by relative team strength and scheduled opponents remaining, one team which you think is a SOLID BET to remain in the 4 after the regular season ends.

Then, you bet that team HUGE to win the Grand Final.  With four rounds remaining, you can get some pretty impressive prices.  This season, the Chiefs were $4.50 and the Bulls were $6.00.

Now, if that team you chose makes the finals.......YOU WIN!!!

How?

Because of the structure of the S14 finals series, there are only two rounds, making hedging quick and easy.  You can either let you team ride in the semis to hedge for a big payout in the GF if they win, or hedge small to cover yourself in the semis, then hedge again for profit in the GF.

Example:

Bulls $500 to return $3000.

Versus Crusaders (Crusaders were $2.25).  Let it ride or bet $500 on Crusaders.  Saders win, get $125.  Saders lose, on to the GF.

Chiefs are $3.25.  Bet $500 on Chiefs if you bet the Saders.  Chiefs win, win $125.  Bulls win, win $1500.

You can't lose.

What do you think about this strategy for next season guys?

It only hit me after I felt like pounding the Bulls with four rounds remaining at $6.00 and balked.

They are now $1.30 to win the Final.

Nice.....

Thoughts please! 

In theory, yes.

But what happens, like in previous years, when you have a dominant side like the crusaders were? You are getting a price of under evens with 4 rounds to go

Going into round 10 the Sharks were leading or were second, or the Cheifs were leading. Bulls and the Tahs were also in the top 4 and they lost as well. So going into round 11 the top teams were all coming off loses, the Bulls were at home to the leaders. The Blues were lurking

So there were about 6 teams vying for the top 4, and you hope that one that you picked gets 1st (or 2nd and hope that the top team loses their semi).

Maybe backing a team to finish on top after the regular season, and then taking the profits before the semis and backing them to win the whole thing

 Haven't seen you in a while around these parts HOH,where you been?

go the tahs

ha.....what! they didn't make the finals

sigh.....next season maybe........

Losing my money in the NHL Playoffs. 

While tipping winners for shits and giggles in the AFL round-after-round.......

Five points.  FIVE POINTS!

ARGH!

i know    bloody crusaders

Got on the penguins to win the whole thing, only 2 units @ 2.38.

  these fuckers have toughened up from last year. 

Sorry chief, not to be a sour apple, but Wings take the Cup again.  Not a homer pick either.  They want it truly and pound-for-pound are better than Pitt.

Yep.  After their start to the season, I thought they were dead and buried.  But, being the Saders and all, they find a way to pull it off.

One win less than the Tahs and still get in.  ARGH! 

wings take game 1

It was fixed, stern wanted it that way eventhough he doesnt give a shit about hockey. What an asshole!

I believe hoh, i believe.

Watch the movie 'miracle'.......if the soviets can be beaten so can the wings.

Foolin around mate, i took the bet because the penguins had the tougher run to the finals then detroit. Still early days, lets see if they can steal one at detroit.

Stern?  Hahaha....you mean Bettman?  Hahaha....I understand though, everybody dislikes that bastard Stern and he basically gets Freudian Slipped into any conversation about cheating, conniving bastards.  Hahaha...

I think the Wings had the harder road with the Ducks and Hawks.  Jackets were pushovers.  Flyers were decent enough and Caps overextended.  Canes were pudding.  Pens haven't faced a defense and goaltending like they will with Detroit and Osgood.  Plus, Detroit rolls four lines, with all four massive scoring threats (Abdelkader, anyone?)...something the Pens have not faced yet.

Detroit basically beating Pitt with jersey flegg players now....

OUCH.

BTW....keep in mind this S14 wagering strategy for next season.  Bulls cruise to the GF win.  Would have been a $6.00 win.  Wow.

Let's see if this works for next year. 

Repeat score in game 2, same scenario as last year, birds cant win one in joe. I need orpik to body slam abdelkader & filppular out of the finals   not looking good so far for the pens but if they can hold their two games at home, i'll be on the pens to win game 5 at joe. Can't keep crosby down, watch the kid come to life in the next two games.


 

Game Three will be awesome.  It's the Pens' Game Seven and everyone knows it.

watch crosby


skate.....skate.....jump.....twist.......skate......  GOAL!



It'll be a great game, 4-2 pens.

btw that's not the game 3 scoreline but the series outcome.

hoh,

pens

what a game! wins game 7 at joe for the cup!

underdogs of the year, had to take some of the 2.70 start of the game as well. Faith paid off.

told ya these fuckers have toughened up.

sure did

They couldn't recover after the pen shocked them with the 2-0 lead in the 2nd. Fleury (pen's GK) was fantastic, one of the greatest comeback in the NHL finals history. Has to be!

hockey

makes you drink 10 in the mornin