State of Origin 3 - Analysis + Conspiracy

Ok....Lets look at the first 2 games...

Lets call a spade a spade here and lets all admit that QLD havent really turned up this series. Slater dropping bombs in game 1 (2 in one game, never happens). QLD ONLY got in NSW 20 in the second half with 10 mins left...

In game 2, Dave taylor dropping balls, Thurston playing like absolute shit, Slater playing at only 50% (medial), Parker missing 39 mins of the second half...

Dont forget Thaiday wasnt there, he is huge with all the work he does in the middle and his tip on plays (inside ball) in attack are outstanding. He is back.

QLD havent turned up this series....especially Thurston. Smith has also been quiet.

NSW have in my opinion, have pretty much played to there best ability in both games.

Game 1 and 2 were very tight, despite NSW playing pretty much to peak, and QLD only at 50%.....yet they were only small margins...

I heard Rod say that they lost one last year and they will be better off for it...

Carney wasnt there (he can be a head case), T Rex wasnt there, Tamou, Grant, Farah wasnt there, J Moz wasnt there. Only half the team was there....where as pretty much every QLD has experience from last years big game 3,....

Tonight...They will comemorate Artie Beetson (emotion will get going there), Petro's last game (more emotion).

If NSW win the penalty count, i will give up gambling...There is NO WAY ON EARTH NSW will win the penalty count - NO WAY, NO CHANCE, NADA, FORGET IT...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE of snake starting off his new thread without using the word "well"....

It just wont happen.

Penalties are like gold in this game.

People will say that Uate was a defensive liability...does anyone remember Brett Morris in game 1 last year.....

What does this all mean....fucked if i know...I know the refs will favour QLD up there and fellow refs know this and will bet based on this inside info...Does that guarantee a QLD win? No, it doesnt, but it tilts the odds in their favour..

I just think QLD with all the emotion, artie plus petro, that home ground, the refs and the fact that they havent played anywhere near there best means they should win well tonight...

What is my bet? well, i think half time is the best...

I'd give NSW a slight advantage in the backs.

QLD much more controlled and experienced in the halves.

Packs are about square.

NSW better bench.

Which coach is a bigger headcase? Coin flip, but I'd have Mal slightly in front given his paranoid ramblings of the past fortnight and the surprising coherence of Ricky's comments.

Skill wise, the halves are very very similar between the blues and maroons...no real difference...

The boggest difference however between teh 2 is the composure f the halves...

Cronk and Thurston and masters in that area....Carney is not too bad, but Pearce is awful in that area...

He just doesnt seem to have a plan...He wants a checkmate straight away, where as Thurston nows exactly the steps needed...

Thaiday a big in, Petero's last game, Scott emotional etc etc.

That's all