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    All Forums | Rugby

    NRL Round 18 @ Super XV final

    blackcrow
    snake2710
    bluephinn
    Boydy5
    davopnz
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    Posts: 25
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 8, 2011 - 2:54 AM ET #1

    Warriors win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00 Centrebet
    Both teams are not in form, but of the two, the Warriors have most of their players available for this game, and look a much better chance of winning this than the Titans, who have been poor, and have not been helped by a big injury toll to their key players. Though the Titans have a 9-3 record against the Warriors, the NZers have won 12 of their 15 night games, and like them to edge this, as they look the team more likely to be able to grind out a win here.

    Eels win by 1-12 margin
    @ 3.30 Centrebet
    Another game with two teams struggling for form and not much separates them, as they both have decent forwards and a bit of quality in the backs. Of these, the Eels have a matchwinner in Hayne, but he needs to step here as he has had a disappoinging season by his standards, while the Tigers have looked rudderless and struggling for points without Marshall in their side. The Eels have won 5 of the last 8 meetings, as well as 4 of the last 7 at home to the Tigers, and like them to do enough here to gain that victory.
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    Warriors win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00 Centrebet
    Both teams are not in form, but of the two, the Warriors have most of their players available for this game, and look a much better chance of winning this than the Titans, who have been poor, and have not been helped by a big injury toll to their key players. Though the Titans have a 9-3 record against the Warriors, the NZers have won 12 of their 15 night games, and like them to edge this, as they look the team more likely to be able to grind out a win here.

    Eels win by 1-12 margin
    @ 3.30 Centrebet
    Another game with two teams struggling for form and not much separates them, as they both have decent forwards and a bit of quality in the backs. Of these, the Eels have a matchwinner in Hayne, but he needs to step here as he has had a disappoinging season by his standards, while the Tigers have looked rudderless and struggling for points without Marshall in their side. The Eels have won 5 of the last 8 meetings, as well as 4 of the last 7 at home to the Tigers, and like them to do enough here to gain that victory.
     
    snake2710
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    Posted: Jul. 8, 2011 - 2:57 AM ET #2

    Like the plays Mr Crow

    Nice write ups as well agree with what u have said.

    BOL to the both of us.

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    Like the plays Mr Crow

    Nice write ups as well agree with what u have said.

    BOL to the both of us.

     
    bluephinn
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    Posted: Jul. 8, 2011 - 3:59 AM ET #3

    Liking the canal dwellers also BC..BOL amigo..
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    Liking the canal dwellers also BC..BOL amigo..
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 2:48 AM ET #4

    Warriors win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00

    Eels win by 1-12 margin
    @ 3.30

    Did not expect both teams to win by 16 points


    Sharks -9.5
    @ 2.75 Centrebet
    Not much separates these two sides as they both have hit some form, have good and underrated backs while solid forwards who make some yards for their sides. However the Raiders are weakened without Learoyd-Lars and Shillington in the forwards while the return of Gallen from Origin duty will lift the Sharks even more, as they thrive on his enthusiasm, effort and energy. With the balance shifting in favour of the Sharks with the basence of the two Raiders forwards, Gallen is worth about 10 points to this side, in what he brings to them. Without him, it would be a toss of the coin, but like the Sharks to continue their roll here, and win another at home, where they are usually tough to beat. Also look to the Sharks to use their thrashing to the Raiders earlier in season as motivation to square it up here.

    Storm -13.5
    @ 2.75 Centrebet
    The Bulldogs are for the rubbish tip. They lack motivation and effort, and now without Ennis, they lack a player who can get them going forward. Hard to see them challenging the Storm based on recent games they have played, and like the Storm to win this pretty comfortably. The Storm are methodical and ruthless in exposing the weaknesses of the opposition, and with the Bulldogs making numerous mistakes in their game, like the Storm to make them pay.

    Reds -2.5 @ 2.85 Centrebet
    Should be a great decider between the best two teams in the competition and not much separates the two sides. The Reds will be even more encouraged for this game as they did beat the Crusaders 17-16 back in Round 15, and now look to win their third game in a row against the Crusaders at home. With halfback Ellis doubtful, then this may see Genia being the player who can give them the edge, as both number 10s are very good, with plenty of speed in the backs and mongrel in the forwards. The Crusaders edge the Reds in the centres but the Reds defence in midfield is very good, and they will be looking to lock up Williams early to prevent the offloads. Another thing that edges this in the Reds favour, besides the overwhelming home crowd support, is that the Reds should be fresh for this game, having recently had a free weekend for topping the ladder, while the crusaders have had to play the last two games on the road, and this may cause them to tire late on, especially if the Reds play their natural expansive game. Like the Reds to edge this and give the QLD'ers a big double win this week
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    Warriors win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00

    Eels win by 1-12 margin
    @ 3.30

    Did not expect both teams to win by 16 points


    Sharks -9.5
    @ 2.75 Centrebet
    Not much separates these two sides as they both have hit some form, have good and underrated backs while solid forwards who make some yards for their sides. However the Raiders are weakened without Learoyd-Lars and Shillington in the forwards while the return of Gallen from Origin duty will lift the Sharks even more, as they thrive on his enthusiasm, effort and energy. With the balance shifting in favour of the Sharks with the basence of the two Raiders forwards, Gallen is worth about 10 points to this side, in what he brings to them. Without him, it would be a toss of the coin, but like the Sharks to continue their roll here, and win another at home, where they are usually tough to beat. Also look to the Sharks to use their thrashing to the Raiders earlier in season as motivation to square it up here.

    Storm -13.5
    @ 2.75 Centrebet
    The Bulldogs are for the rubbish tip. They lack motivation and effort, and now without Ennis, they lack a player who can get them going forward. Hard to see them challenging the Storm based on recent games they have played, and like the Storm to win this pretty comfortably. The Storm are methodical and ruthless in exposing the weaknesses of the opposition, and with the Bulldogs making numerous mistakes in their game, like the Storm to make them pay.

    Reds -2.5 @ 2.85 Centrebet
    Should be a great decider between the best two teams in the competition and not much separates the two sides. The Reds will be even more encouraged for this game as they did beat the Crusaders 17-16 back in Round 15, and now look to win their third game in a row against the Crusaders at home. With halfback Ellis doubtful, then this may see Genia being the player who can give them the edge, as both number 10s are very good, with plenty of speed in the backs and mongrel in the forwards. The Crusaders edge the Reds in the centres but the Reds defence in midfield is very good, and they will be looking to lock up Williams early to prevent the offloads. Another thing that edges this in the Reds favour, besides the overwhelming home crowd support, is that the Reds should be fresh for this game, having recently had a free weekend for topping the ladder, while the crusaders have had to play the last two games on the road, and this may cause them to tire late on, especially if the Reds play their natural expansive game. Like the Reds to edge this and give the QLD'ers a big double win this week
     
    snake2710
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 3:04 AM ET #5

    Wow on the other side off all three mate.

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    Wow on the other side off all three mate.

     
    Boydy5
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 3:22 AM ET #6

    Sharkies

    Storm

    Reds


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    Sharkies

    Storm

    Reds


     
    davopnz
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 3:47 AM ET #7

    reds other plays
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    reds other plays
     
    davopnz
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 3:52 AM ET #8

    i have lived in the shaky city of christchurch since the beginning of all these quakes, i know how it feels, these boys are going to bring it home for our ravaged city
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    i have lived in the shaky city of christchurch since the beginning of all these quakes, i know how it feels, these boys are going to bring it home for our ravaged city
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 9:14 AM ET #9

    Sharks -9.5 @ 2.75

    Storm -13.5
    @ 2.75

    Reds -2.5 @ 2.85 


    Had a treble going and just needed the Storm to hold them out for another couple of minutes. They played beneath what they are capable, and surprised they allowed the Bulldogs to score 3 tries.
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    Sharks -9.5 @ 2.75

    Storm -13.5
    @ 2.75

    Reds -2.5 @ 2.85 


    Had a treble going and just needed the Storm to hold them out for another couple of minutes. They played beneath what they are capable, and surprised they allowed the Bulldogs to score 3 tries.
     
    snake2710
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 9:18 AM ET #10

    Still a good + night

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    Still a good + night

     
    davopnz
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 9:26 AM ET #11

    nice win on the crusaders....still shocked, cant sleep.
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    nice win on the crusaders....still shocked, cant sleep.
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 6:14 PM ET #12

    snake & davopnz

    Panthers win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00 Centrebet
    Panthers are climbing the ladder with 4 wins in their last 5 games, and with a new coach now looking for a hat trick of wins, they are starting to click. Though they are without Civoniceva and Lewis, they played well wittout them against the Bulldogs last week, while the Roosters were smashed by the Raiders on Monday night, and though they get their 3 Origin players back, they have not played well with them in the side during the course of the season. Expect the Roosters to lift though, as they look to put aside that poor performance on Monday night, and with the Panthers having just 1 win in their last 6 daytime games then the Roosters will have some edge here. However still think the Panthers have enough in him to edge this game.

    Sea Eagles -19.5 @ 3.00 cenrebet
    Sea Eagles are freshed for this game as they are coming off a bye and should be a primed for a big win here as they look to have too much class for a Rabbitohs side that were smashed by a Sharks side last week, and now face an even better side here. The Rabbitohs will struggle to compete with the Sea Eagles pack, especially as they are witout Asotasi, Burgess and Taylor, while their backs lack direction and conviction. Souths have lost 10 of their last 11 day games at Manly, and are hard to see them staying competitive, as the Manly backs should be able to use the roll on they get from their forwards to open the Souths side up.
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    snake & davopnz

    Panthers win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00 Centrebet
    Panthers are climbing the ladder with 4 wins in their last 5 games, and with a new coach now looking for a hat trick of wins, they are starting to click. Though they are without Civoniceva and Lewis, they played well wittout them against the Bulldogs last week, while the Roosters were smashed by the Raiders on Monday night, and though they get their 3 Origin players back, they have not played well with them in the side during the course of the season. Expect the Roosters to lift though, as they look to put aside that poor performance on Monday night, and with the Panthers having just 1 win in their last 6 daytime games then the Roosters will have some edge here. However still think the Panthers have enough in him to edge this game.

    Sea Eagles -19.5 @ 3.00 cenrebet
    Sea Eagles are freshed for this game as they are coming off a bye and should be a primed for a big win here as they look to have too much class for a Rabbitohs side that were smashed by a Sharks side last week, and now face an even better side here. The Rabbitohs will struggle to compete with the Sea Eagles pack, especially as they are witout Asotasi, Burgess and Taylor, while their backs lack direction and conviction. Souths have lost 10 of their last 11 day games at Manly, and are hard to see them staying competitive, as the Manly backs should be able to use the roll on they get from their forwards to open the Souths side up.
     
    davoz
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 8:01 PM ET #13

    Well done last night man and i like both plays today gl
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    Well done last night man and i like both plays today gl
     
    davopnz
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    Posted: Jul. 9, 2011 - 10:48 PM ET #14

    I have panthers 13+
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    I have panthers 13+
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 10, 2011 - 4:55 AM ET #15

    Panthers win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00
    Sea Eagles -19.5 @ 3.00 

    Some of the refereeing decisions in these games were poor.
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    Panthers win by 1-12 margin @ 3.00
    Sea Eagles -19.5 @ 3.00 

    Some of the refereeing decisions in these games were poor.
     
    davopnz
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    Posted: Jul. 10, 2011 - 5:04 AM ET #16

    hey man can I ask for your advice on a betting strategy, as in bankroll and amount per bet? i went all silly and blew everything this weeke
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    hey man can I ask for your advice on a betting strategy, as in bankroll and amount per bet? i went all silly and blew everything this weeke
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 4:07 AM ET #17

    Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:

    hey man can I ask for your advice on a betting strategy, as in bankroll and amount per bet? i went all silly and blew everything this weeke


    When i started out, tended to do the same thing. Now older, and hopefully wiser, trying to be smarter with the money management side of things

    Keep it simple and play with what you can afford. Should not be more than 10% of your weekly wage.

    The old adage is it is a marathon and not a sprint.

    Pretty much play the same amount on each game, but if i am more confident on a pick, i will put a bit (not much) more on them.

    Still a sucker for parlays, but usually doubles or trebles, and at the most 4 teams, but they are a fraction of the initial bets.

    Hopefully this may help. I'm sure there are others who can contribute to this.


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    Quote Originally Posted by davopnz:

    hey man can I ask for your advice on a betting strategy, as in bankroll and amount per bet? i went all silly and blew everything this weeke


    When i started out, tended to do the same thing. Now older, and hopefully wiser, trying to be smarter with the money management side of things

    Keep it simple and play with what you can afford. Should not be more than 10% of your weekly wage.

    The old adage is it is a marathon and not a sprint.

    Pretty much play the same amount on each game, but if i am more confident on a pick, i will put a bit (not much) more on them.

    Still a sucker for parlays, but usually doubles or trebles, and at the most 4 teams, but they are a fraction of the initial bets.

    Hopefully this may help. I'm sure there are others who can contribute to this.


     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 4:07 AM ET #18

    Knights win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 Centrebet
    The Knights are favourites for this given that Mullen and Gidley are paired up for this game in the halves while the Cowboys have a huge loss without Thurston there. So while the Knights have the edge in the backs, but still like the Cowboys forwards with Scott, Hall and Johnson there, and they will keep them competitive in this game. Like the Knights to edge this, as they have won 3 straight this season, as well as 10 of 13 games at home to the Cowboys, but their last 7 games this season has seen single figure wins and doubt that they will blow them out here.
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    Knights win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05 Centrebet
    The Knights are favourites for this given that Mullen and Gidley are paired up for this game in the halves while the Cowboys have a huge loss without Thurston there. So while the Knights have the edge in the backs, but still like the Cowboys forwards with Scott, Hall and Johnson there, and they will keep them competitive in this game. Like the Knights to edge this, as they have won 3 straight this season, as well as 10 of 13 games at home to the Cowboys, but their last 7 games this season has seen single figure wins and doubt that they will blow them out here.
     
    GSP10
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 4:12 AM ET #19

    Good luck man. I'm on the same bet.
     I got 3.10 for it i think its ok value 
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    Good luck man. I'm on the same bet.
     I got 3.10 for it i think its ok value 
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 6:50 AM ET #20

    Knights win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05
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    Knights win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05
     
    Boydy5
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 7:05 AM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by blackcrow:

    Knights win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05


    Sucks...
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcrow:

    Knights win by 1-12 margin @ 3.05


    Sucks...
     
    Seymour24
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    Posted: Jul. 11, 2011 - 8:47 AM ET #22

    Well, I've learned that picking winners always helps the money management! Now if I can just learn how to pick those winners.
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    Well, I've learned that picking winners always helps the money management! Now if I can just learn how to pick those winners.
     
    davopnz
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2011 - 12:31 AM ET #23

    thanks blackcrow do you bet on the ITM Cup?
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    thanks blackcrow do you bet on the ITM Cup?
     
    snake2710
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    Posted: Jul. 13, 2011 - 2:28 AM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by blackcrow:



    When i started out, tended to do the same thing. Now older, and hopefully wiser, trying to be smarter with the money management side of things

    Keep it simple and play with what you can afford. Should not be more than 10% of your weekly wage.

    The old adage is it is a marathon and not a sprint.

    Pretty much play the same amount on each game, but if i am more confident on a pick, i will put a bit (not much) more on them.

    Still a sucker for parlays, but usually doubles or trebles, and at the most 4 teams, but they are a fraction of the initial bets.

    Hopefully this may help. I'm sure there are others who can contribute to this.


    Could not have said it better myself.

    Yea agree with davopnz do u play the IT cup?

    Im going to give it a go but going to be a tough start not knowing some of the players and all that.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcrow:



    When i started out, tended to do the same thing. Now older, and hopefully wiser, trying to be smarter with the money management side of things

    Keep it simple and play with what you can afford. Should not be more than 10% of your weekly wage.

    The old adage is it is a marathon and not a sprint.

    Pretty much play the same amount on each game, but if i am more confident on a pick, i will put a bit (not much) more on them.

    Still a sucker for parlays, but usually doubles or trebles, and at the most 4 teams, but they are a fraction of the initial bets.

    Hopefully this may help. I'm sure there are others who can contribute to this.


    Could not have said it better myself.

    Yea agree with davopnz do u play the IT cup?

    Im going to give it a go but going to be a tough start not knowing some of the players and all that.

     

     
     
    blackcrow
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    Posted: Jul. 14, 2011 - 6:43 PM ET #25

    Giving the ITM cup a miss but will follow you guys if you have some good info


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    Giving the ITM cup a miss but will follow you guys if you have some good info


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