NRL Friday Night R21

Dragons -5.5 over the Storm

 

I’m going to keep riding this train till it at least changes tracks. Why are the Dragons only -5-5? I’ll tell you why. Because you think Storm and you think Slater, Ingles, Smith and the last couple of years. Well this team has been heading south since last year and they are no longer the team people think they are. Sure they are still a good team but their history is keeping this line low.

My key points are as follows:-

The Dragons are a better team in most positional player personnel and have a stronger bench.

This is probably their most difficult game (for the Dragons, on paper at least) for the rest of the home and away season. I think they want t o make a statement to themselves.

In their last 6 games the Storm have only scored over 18 points once, and that was against the Sharks last week.  And that game blew out late as the Sharks were losing troops at the back end of the game. Best thing to happen which kept this game at only -5.5 and now they face the No. # 1 defence.

In round 1 The Storm won this game at home 13-12. Back then the Dragons were ordinary on offence and they had quite openly admitted they spent the majority of the off season working on defence and as coach Bennet stated that the offence will come, it has.

Last week the Dragons had an ordinary 2^nd half against the Warriors. And with about 10 mins to go and leading by 12, they pop over a field goal. Why? The game was never in doubt. Because it was a drill for this week’s game against the Storm. Dragons will take a field goal if on offer tonight, so if you want some value you can get better than $3 for 13+ on the Dragons and they are a good chance to do it as well. This line should be up above 10 based on form.

My pick Dragons by 13. Not so much for the reasons stated above but I believe they have the greater motivation to win this game.

 

Best of luck!

Correction: Storm won 17-16 in round 1.

Gold Coast -5.5

Looking for the best bet in this game and based on form most everyone should be on the -5.5 on the Coast. Not sure why I have slight doubts about it as the Coast really is dominant in the forward pack and can more than match it with the cowboys in the backs. they are also undefeated at home and would love to keep pace with the dogs for that 2nd place. NQ has allowed min. 30 points in their last three away games, all losses, and failed to score more than 20 all season when they have lost. If NQ has had a look ahead at their schedule which I know they have, it is quite obvious that they have the toughest run home and they know it.

So how much fight do they have in them? No one really expects them to head south and beat the Coast so maybe they don't have that pressure on them. They still have the pressure to make the top 8 but I believe thaty they really believe it is beyond them and they are hoping Thurston or Bowen can do something about it.

They really are undermatched in the forward pack and a bit of complaining by their coach during the week about how they got the rough end of the stick against Penrith last week, may see the refs go easy on them in the early stages of this game. They need help from somewhere.

The Coast have not put 2 wins back to back in the last four games and they are just riding the wave at the moment.

Gold Coast by 8.

"Not sure why I have slight doubts about it"

I fucking hate when I go against one of my golden rules and get burnt.

Rule: If in doubt, leave it out.

And all because I wanted action on both games. That's why I can never get ahead. No discipline.

Thanks AM .

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