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– Adelaide have won and covered three straight against Richmond.
– The Crows have posted scores of 128 and 140 in their last two against the Tigers.
– Richmond have covered 12 of their last 14 at the MCG.
– The Crows have covered just 3 of their last 9 at the MCG.
– The under has hit in 9 of the Tigers’ last 12 at the MCG.
– The over is 11-6 in Adelaide games at the MCG since 2012.
– Richmond have covered 11 of their last 15 games as an outsider at the MCG.
– The under has hit in 11 straight when the Tigers have been underdogs at the MCG.
– Richmond are 25-15 under in day matches at the MCG since 2012.
– Adelaide are 41-23 over interstate since 2012.
– The Crows have covered just three of their last eight as an interstate favourite.
– Outsiders have covered 57% of finals since 2012.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Adelaide 16-8, Richmond 18-6
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 10-14, Richmond 8-16

What To Expect
It is impossible to go past the Tigers here. Their momentum seems irresistible. They have been a brilliant defensive side all year but have made their attacking bones over the back end of the season. They get a huge advantage playing at the MCG, their home ground, with every neutral cheering on the Tigers. Adelaide have looked a little shaky on the road lately and the Tigers continue to cover at the MCG. It’s the year of the Tiger.

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 8

Recommended Bet
Richmond +6.5 ($1.91)

– Melbourne are 15-11 ATS with a 14-12 under record while North Queensland are 17-10 ATS with a 17-10 under record.

– The Storm have won five straight and 17 of their last 22 against the Cowboys, including 23-22 and 26-8 wins this year.

– Seven of the last nine meetings have failed to break 35 points.

– The under has hit in eight of the last nine Grand Finals.

– Favourites have won and covered seven of the last nine Grand Finals.

– Double digit favourites are 3-4 ATS in finals since 2008.

– Melbourne have covered just three of their last nine finals games.

–  As an interstate outsider of more than a converted try, the Cowboys are 9-3 ATS.

– North Queensland have covered 10 of their last 13 finals.

– The Storm are 1-2 ATS at ANZ since 2014 while North Queensland are a perfect 6-0 ATS.

– The Storm have covered five of their last six as a favourite of 8 or more.

– The Storm have covered 4 of their last five night games.

– Backs have won 16 Clive Churchill Medals with forwards 15.

– Three players have won from a losing team.

– No winger, centre or bench player has ever won the Clive Churchill Medal.

Final Thoughts
The Wolf is sticking with the fine-tuned machine that is the Melbourne Storm. They’ve been the benchmark all season and won’t let the opportunity slip to make amends for last year’s grand final loss. In terms of betting angles, the Cowboys have been very gutsy throughout the final series and shouldn’t let this one get out of hand. The Cowboys have covered in 10 of their last 13 finals, making the Storm 1-12, The Wolf’s best bet. The unders is also a strong play, with the unders hitting in eight of the last nine Grand Finals. Players like Cameron Smith ($3) and Cooper Cronk ($5.50) are the obvious choices to win the Clive Churchill Medal, but The Wolf is keen on a few players at value. Cameron Munster ($11), Felise Kaufusi ($26) and Dale Finucane ($67) are all in with a strong shot at man of the match honours and at a good price.

How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 6

Best Bet
Melbourne 1-12 ($2.80)