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pumas +9.5

crusaders win 1-12

gold coast win 1.32

A couple of critical factors:
- No team has crossed the Indian Ocean (Either way) and won a Super Rugby Final
- Ellis Park will be jam packed, a sell-out and a daunting atmosphere for the Saders
- The Lions are bidding farewell to Ackers, the man that took them from relegation to back-to-back Super Rugby Finalists
- Always back the + in finals, if it is a home + then its golden!

The only worry for me is that the Saders are defensive geniuses! The Landers didn't score a single point against them and the Chiefs managed one try.

I fancy the Lions here to win outright with a small bite on the Saders ht / Lions ft

Big thanks to Oracle for his preview of the Super Rugby final which would appear to be powered by a cuddly toy and a bottle of J&B

What a final we are set for. Two attacking team who have more than proven themselves in 2017, on a fast track in Jo’burg, in a winner takes all battle. The Wolf could not be more excited! For the record The Wolf feels the travel factor will have a big say in deciding the game, and therefore the 2017 Super Rugby champions. The Crusaders have to overcome a 16 hour flight mid week flight from Christchurch to Johannesburg, thus the Wolf feels they won’t have the stamina to keep up the power and pace this Lions side possesses. The change from a neutral referee to a South African one will also help the hosts along with the kick off being at 2am New Zealand time. All the cards have been dealt to the Lions and they will make it count.

Final thoughts

Lions by 1

Recommended bets

Best Bet:Over 53.5 points ($1.87)
Value bet: Lions 1-12 ($3.10)

Super Rugby BuildABet

Lions to convert all TRIES at 100% ($1.90)
Crusaders to convert all TRIES at 100% ($1.90)
Lions HT/NT, over 53.5 total points ($5.00)
Lions 1st try & lead by 6+ pts HT & win by 13+ pts ($6.50)
Crusaders 1st scoring play Pen Goal, Crusaders lead by 3+ HT, Lions win by 1-12 pts ($12.00)

Last time they met

23/7/2016: Lions 42–25 Crusaders

This looks like a team peaking at the right end of the season, and they have a run home that gives them every chance of a top four finish. Their performance against the Broncos was (probably) their most impressive this season. As the game wore on they looked stronger, and they kept the Broncos pointless for the last 70 minutes of the game. Their under-rated pack needs to match it with the Dogs, but I think they can, and I'll back the Eels backline to outscore the Bulldogs every day of the week. I'm not going to say this is a foregone conclusion, but there's only one team you can tip on Thursday night.

Verdict – Eels by 10

Eels by 4 I think the Eels will get home aganist Bulldogs

Eels - Methinks that Baggy’s BOYS might just be the real deal. They look like they’re coming good at the right time of the year if last week’s effort against the Ponies is anything to go by. I was somewhat surprised with the Doggies last week. They had a pretty decent crack at it but all to no avail and unfortunately I reckon they’re gawn. This might be close but I’m tipping the Eels to get in here.

Definitely Eels, I saw them last week....unstoppable

My round 22 tips:
Bulldogs by 4
Dragons by 16
Cowboys by 2
Knights by 10
Broncos by 10
Sharks by 4
Roosters by 6
Panthers by 7

NRL.com predicts: Based on what we've seen this season, the Dragons should win. But that's what we said last week and we were left with plenty of egg on our face. Can the Rabbitohs produce the same sort of fight that the Knights showed last week, or will the Red V put the foot down with so much to play for? It has to be the latter, doesn’t it? Dragons by 14

Cowboys +6.5 at $1.70, Melbourne played on Sunday travelling to North Queensland is a long trip, change of climate from cold to hot will not help as well. Cowboys played a day earlier in Sydney and although they lost against the Roosters a game they should of really won. Cowboys have impressed me without JT and they will be looking for revenge from their golden point loss earlier in the season. Melbourne are due for a let down especially after Cameron Smith's 350th last weekend

Agree cows plus not bad atall....will be close battle.. either team win by 7...

thanks R3V3

I have to agree with the Oracle here. Bookmakers in Australia have given the Lions no respect either. Last year they were finalists, and deserved to be there, and this year they had a pretty favourable draw so why would they not also be priced as one of the favourites early on. Back in Mid March I got odds of 10:1 on the Lions to win the S18. Don't get me wrong I support the NZ teams but I picked last week that the Hurricanes would struggle to beat them and look what happened. Last week I even flew over from Australia to Christchurch to support the Crusaders, however, I also think with the travel factor, playing at altitude, and at Ellis Park amongst 60,000 Lions supporters, and with Ackerman leaving this makes it a very tall task for the Crusaders and yet they are favourites at 1.82:1 against the Lions at 2:1 here in Australia. This just doesn't make sense.

Nth Queensland Cowboys (+15.5)Nth Queensland Cowboys v Melbourne Storm		More Info
1.23 | Win | Fixed Price
St George Illawarra Dragons (-3.5)St George Illawarra Dragons v South Sydney Rabbitohs
1.63 | Win | Fixed Price                       parlay @2

Cowboys +6.5 Sydney 1-39 

75 minutes  gone dragon was 24-14..  then  dragon lost  24-26 the game..NRL

Bulls -11.5 should be free money.. again lions is B team.. bulls 20+ for me..

Over 53,5 lions vs crusaders ht 3:15.    Lions is garbage and fade team

How It’s Shaping Up
West Coast by 7

Recommended Bet
Under 172.5 points ($1.88)

etting Data
2017 Line: Richmond 13-5, Hawthorn 9-9
2017 Over-Under: Richmond 4-14, Hawthorn 5-13

What To Expect
The total on this should jump about 140 even if it is a beautiful sunny day. These two are a combined 27-9 under this year and all the angles suggest this will be a low-scoring affair, heightened by the stakes of the match. Richmond are a huge under team at the MCG and big under team off a good attacking performance while the Hawks are a big under team in the rare situation as an underdog. The under can be bet with total confidence.

How It’s Shaping Up
Richmond by 13

Recommended Bet
Under 162.5 points 

  this week  all 6  AFL games totals gone under..

Betting Data
2017 Line: Adelaide 12-6, Port Adelaide 10-8
2017 Over-Under: Adelaide 8-10, Port Adelaide 7-11

What To Expect
It is hard to go past Adelaide in this one. They have been the form team of the season and have an excellent recent record over Port. The Power have underachieved this year and have had a habit of struggling against the top teams. The Crows tend to hold their form at home after a good attacking showing. The Crows have too much firepower.

How It’s Shaping Up
Adelaide by 21

Recommended Bet
Adelaide -10.5 ($1.91)

Prediction

Manly have been in truly dreadful form lately. Their most recent win an unconvincing one against the lowly Wests Tigers and have leaked 92 points in their last two games while the Roosters have secured a convincing win over a spirited Knights team and a comeback win over a Cowboys team that had won 4 straight games.

If Manly can rediscover their form of a few months ago then they’re in with a good chance of beating the Roosters. Otherwise it’s hard to see the Roosters losing this one if their forwards play like the way they did against the Cowboys. The potential return of Jake Friend would give their side a massive boost as well. Roosters by 8+

one says  like this.. manly must win game..  you better win manly.. go manly.. why cant you win at home..