All sports ( rygby, league, afl,basketball.....ect)
ireland +8.5 1.40
ireland +8.5 1.40
sunday afternoon footy at canberra can be deadly for any opposition.i think canberra is one of top four if not top eight and with the ropana leluia combo and new centre pairing for tigers this game is a blowout.The have inspirational captain crocker back on the paddock.my best prediction is a blowout but -8.5 is more than good enough
sharks -7.5
st george gave a false alarm that its a good team but they cannot win away games and the sharks have a full squad and back to the grinding hard football team they are.
GOODLUCK FELLAS.TIME TO EMPTY THE BOOKIES ON THIS ONE
sunday afternoon footy at canberra can be deadly for any opposition.i think canberra is one of top four if not top eight and with the ropana leluia combo and new centre pairing for tigers this game is a blowout.The have inspirational captain crocker back on the paddock.my best prediction is a blowout but -8.5 is more than good enough
sharks -7.5
st george gave a false alarm that its a good team but they cannot win away games and the sharks have a full squad and back to the grinding hard football team they are.
GOODLUCK FELLAS.TIME TO EMPTY THE BOOKIES ON THIS ONE
jagu win under 59.5 @2.50
jagu win under 59.5 @2.50
Onto week 5 and my quick views:
Saders v Force, if home side play first 40 like last 20 they should canter home here. Leaning towards Saders minus.
Rebels v Tahs, cap of around a converted try looks too much in my view, i’m firmly in home side camp here, showed plenty fight against high-flying Chiefs, Tah’s are on my hit-list right now, not sue Foley can even get them back on track.
Blues v Bulls. Blues were back to usual fragile self last week, should have won, expecting a fire to be lit by coaches, will be going home side here to win by a dozen+ points.
Brumbies v Highlanders, will wait to see what Highlanders injury list looks like, looks a choice match but i’d be leaning visitors at moment, despite Brumbies getting a good win in Sydney.
Wolves v Stormers, visitors need a fast start to take heart out Japan side, cap looks big but think the Sunwolves have put in a decent shift of late and could be some tired legs. Possibly Stormers on minus, or one for the exotics, 2nd half highest scoring could also appeal here.
Kings v Lions, like a few got burnt by Kings on weekend, i’m still waiting for the big blowout, am convinced it’s coming, Lions pace of play will be too much, am all over best Lions minus, just hope no Team B from Ackermann.
Cheetahs v Sharks, my side were dismal against Kings, leaving this one until sides announced, Sharks need to figure out who is their best 10 and soon.
Jags v Reds, seen the cap around 10 pts, in my view looks some value for home side and will be looking for best available.
Good punting.
Onto week 5 and my quick views:
Saders v Force, if home side play first 40 like last 20 they should canter home here. Leaning towards Saders minus.
Rebels v Tahs, cap of around a converted try looks too much in my view, i’m firmly in home side camp here, showed plenty fight against high-flying Chiefs, Tah’s are on my hit-list right now, not sue Foley can even get them back on track.
Blues v Bulls. Blues were back to usual fragile self last week, should have won, expecting a fire to be lit by coaches, will be going home side here to win by a dozen+ points.
Brumbies v Highlanders, will wait to see what Highlanders injury list looks like, looks a choice match but i’d be leaning visitors at moment, despite Brumbies getting a good win in Sydney.
Wolves v Stormers, visitors need a fast start to take heart out Japan side, cap looks big but think the Sunwolves have put in a decent shift of late and could be some tired legs. Possibly Stormers on minus, or one for the exotics, 2nd half highest scoring could also appeal here.
Kings v Lions, like a few got burnt by Kings on weekend, i’m still waiting for the big blowout, am convinced it’s coming, Lions pace of play will be too much, am all over best Lions minus, just hope no Team B from Ackermann.
Cheetahs v Sharks, my side were dismal against Kings, leaving this one until sides announced, Sharks need to figure out who is their best 10 and soon.
Jags v Reds, seen the cap around 10 pts, in my view looks some value for home side and will be looking for best available.
Good punting.
Sunwolves + 25.5: I think the wolves will take confidence from their improved showing in South Africa, back in front of their "home" fans, Stormers line-up depleted.
Sunwolves + 25.5: I think the wolves will take confidence from their improved showing in South Africa, back in front of their "home" fans, Stormers line-up depleted.
Rabbitohs - Hard to split on current form. Came down to Sutton being named at 6 who can often be a handful, at the very least attracting the extra defender. Johnston back to his preferred wing, and replaced by a more skilful Cody Walker (and who's State of Origin eligibility remains very unclear. More enquiries may follow the game)
rabbitohs +15.5 @1.50 free money![]()
Panthers - I still have severe doubts about Panthers not using Cartwright as their main attacking weapon. Without that they don't have the same aura they had last year, and opposing teams sense that.
So I wouldn't be surprised if they fall again, I mean they lose so many games they are favoured to win, but happy for this to be a true tipping comp tip.
panthers -6.5 for me![]()
Raiders - Broncos will struggle to manage the Raiders forwards and the different attacking style that they are coached to defend, especially Rapana. Broncos have their attacking options too, but will be under pressure if old Chicken Thaiday and CornCob Sims can't make the hard yards.
no way bris will kill raiders![]()
Bulldogs - Forward battle is David and Goliath stuff. Manly, you are David in case you were wondering. Sure, David came out on top in that scuffle so they say, but that wasn't a rugby league game. Will take more than a bloody slingshot to stop the Dogs here.
like doge.. but no bet for me![]()
Sharks - Much more like the makeup of the team that won the comp, albeit they aren't getting Barba and Ennis back. Although rather than the Sharks attack, I think it's their defence that will be more of a test to the Eels. They've lost attacking options, and so will regress back to their grinding days of old here. Wet weather only adds weight. Parra's attack just won't be as good in heavy boots.
no bet ![]()
Titans - The Coast make plenty of mistakes on their day, but mistakes are guaranteed from the inexperienced Cowboy combos. No Taumololo , no Scott, no Coote, take #2.
titans -3.5 @3 not bad atll.. but i will go titans +13.5 @1.50![]()
Storm - They haven't been as impressive as their undefeated record suggests, but Tigers defensive flaws will be exposed again eg targeting Brooks and Naigama. (not the coaches fault)
like mel and not bet for me![]()
Warriors - Finally leaving the cocoon that NZ soil has become in the last month may be a blessing. Expectation not as high, but plenty of wet ground underfoot will make them feel at home.
even this arshole win never bet them
dragon -6.5 @3 or dragon +6.5 @1.50![]()
Rabbitohs - Hard to split on current form. Came down to Sutton being named at 6 who can often be a handful, at the very least attracting the extra defender. Johnston back to his preferred wing, and replaced by a more skilful Cody Walker (and who's State of Origin eligibility remains very unclear. More enquiries may follow the game)
rabbitohs +15.5 @1.50 free money![]()
Panthers - I still have severe doubts about Panthers not using Cartwright as their main attacking weapon. Without that they don't have the same aura they had last year, and opposing teams sense that.
So I wouldn't be surprised if they fall again, I mean they lose so many games they are favoured to win, but happy for this to be a true tipping comp tip.
panthers -6.5 for me![]()
Raiders - Broncos will struggle to manage the Raiders forwards and the different attacking style that they are coached to defend, especially Rapana. Broncos have their attacking options too, but will be under pressure if old Chicken Thaiday and CornCob Sims can't make the hard yards.
no way bris will kill raiders![]()
Bulldogs - Forward battle is David and Goliath stuff. Manly, you are David in case you were wondering. Sure, David came out on top in that scuffle so they say, but that wasn't a rugby league game. Will take more than a bloody slingshot to stop the Dogs here.
like doge.. but no bet for me![]()
Sharks - Much more like the makeup of the team that won the comp, albeit they aren't getting Barba and Ennis back. Although rather than the Sharks attack, I think it's their defence that will be more of a test to the Eels. They've lost attacking options, and so will regress back to their grinding days of old here. Wet weather only adds weight. Parra's attack just won't be as good in heavy boots.
no bet ![]()
Titans - The Coast make plenty of mistakes on their day, but mistakes are guaranteed from the inexperienced Cowboy combos. No Taumololo , no Scott, no Coote, take #2.
titans -3.5 @3 not bad atll.. but i will go titans +13.5 @1.50![]()
Storm - They haven't been as impressive as their undefeated record suggests, but Tigers defensive flaws will be exposed again eg targeting Brooks and Naigama. (not the coaches fault)
like mel and not bet for me![]()
Warriors - Finally leaving the cocoon that NZ soil has become in the last month may be a blessing. Expectation not as high, but plenty of wet ground underfoot will make them feel at home.
even this arshole win never bet them
dragon -6.5 @3 or dragon +6.5 @1.50![]()
force +18.5
rebels +7.5
blues -11.5
highlanders win
sunwolves +24.5
kings +25.5
cheetahs +3.5
jaguares -11.5
force +18.5
rebels +7.5
blues -11.5
highlanders win
sunwolves +24.5
kings +25.5
cheetahs +3.5
jaguares -11.5
On your argument that bigger handicaps should be more secure, you are absolutely correct. but obviously for a lower return as is shown by having to pick 3 games together for that 15/10 return.
just want to point out that in the 2016 regular season if you look at the actual results vs the bookie handicaps (measured each Thursday night and looking at caps on 0.9 decimal odds) you will find
135 games played
the average actual result is 12.5 points away from the handicap however these include outliers i.e
about 10% (14 games) had a result of 2 points or fewer from the handicap and on the other end of the normal distribution 11% (15 games) the average is 33 points away, all of those came in over 27 points away.
47% (64 games) had result of 10 points or more away from the handicap.
there were no draws, but 6 games came in on 0.5 points away.
and the sweet spot in the middle? 60% of games (81 of the 135) had an average of 10.5 points away.
i see you're bargaining on about 6 or 7 points away from the handicap, in 2016 44 games came in closer than 6 points so that would've saved you 66% of the time assuming you have all the directions correct, which means every 1 in 3 you're bound not to be safe enough. How many games are you stringing together again?
LOL but these are just averages, the skill is in identifying the value and i agree (fingers crossed) with all 3 those bets of you guys, it's just that i prefer to go for the highest odds as it seems to me -12.5 or-11.5 is almost (two thirds) as likely to come in as -7.5 and -6.5.
HT/FT
Force/Crusaders @ 7.00
Draw/Crusaders @ 26.00
On your argument that bigger handicaps should be more secure, you are absolutely correct. but obviously for a lower return as is shown by having to pick 3 games together for that 15/10 return.
just want to point out that in the 2016 regular season if you look at the actual results vs the bookie handicaps (measured each Thursday night and looking at caps on 0.9 decimal odds) you will find
135 games played
the average actual result is 12.5 points away from the handicap however these include outliers i.e
about 10% (14 games) had a result of 2 points or fewer from the handicap and on the other end of the normal distribution 11% (15 games) the average is 33 points away, all of those came in over 27 points away.
47% (64 games) had result of 10 points or more away from the handicap.
there were no draws, but 6 games came in on 0.5 points away.
and the sweet spot in the middle? 60% of games (81 of the 135) had an average of 10.5 points away.
i see you're bargaining on about 6 or 7 points away from the handicap, in 2016 44 games came in closer than 6 points so that would've saved you 66% of the time assuming you have all the directions correct, which means every 1 in 3 you're bound not to be safe enough. How many games are you stringing together again?
LOL but these are just averages, the skill is in identifying the value and i agree (fingers crossed) with all 3 those bets of you guys, it's just that i prefer to go for the highest odds as it seems to me -12.5 or-11.5 is almost (two thirds) as likely to come in as -7.5 and -6.5.
HT/FT
Force/Crusaders @ 7.00
Draw/Crusaders @ 26.00
Crusaders
Crusaders
Form: The Crusaders made a nervy start to their campaign but eventually got over the line with a 17-13 victory against the Brumbies in Christchurch. In their next match, they were trailing 17-6 at half-time against the Highlanders before a second half resurgence helped them to a 30-27 win and in their next match, in Brisbane against the Reds, they fought back from a 20-5 defict at the break to claim a 22-20 victory. And last week, it was more of the same as the Crusaders came from 21-5 down at half-time against the Blues in Christchurch to clinch a 33-24 triumph.
The Force’s season has been less dramatic. After suffering a narrow 19-13 loss to the Waratahs in Round 1, they bounced back with a 26-19 home win against the Reds. In Round 3, they delivered a competitive performance against the Brumbies in Canberra but eventually lost 25-17. The Force had a bye last weekend.
Prediction: The Crusaders will have too much firepower for the Force, so don’t expect another second half fightback from the hosts. Crusaders to win by 10 points!
Form: The Crusaders made a nervy start to their campaign but eventually got over the line with a 17-13 victory against the Brumbies in Christchurch. In their next match, they were trailing 17-6 at half-time against the Highlanders before a second half resurgence helped them to a 30-27 win and in their next match, in Brisbane against the Reds, they fought back from a 20-5 defict at the break to claim a 22-20 victory. And last week, it was more of the same as the Crusaders came from 21-5 down at half-time against the Blues in Christchurch to clinch a 33-24 triumph.
The Force’s season has been less dramatic. After suffering a narrow 19-13 loss to the Waratahs in Round 1, they bounced back with a 26-19 home win against the Reds. In Round 3, they delivered a competitive performance against the Brumbies in Canberra but eventually lost 25-17. The Force had a bye last weekend.
Prediction: The Crusaders will have too much firepower for the Force, so don’t expect another second half fightback from the hosts. Crusaders to win by 10 points!
On your argument that bigger handicaps should be more secure, you are absolutely correct. but obviously for a lower return as is shown by having to pick 3 games together for that 15/10 return.
just want to point out that in the 2016 regular season if you look at the actual results vs the bookie handicaps (measured each Thursday night and looking at caps on 0.9 decimal odds) you will find
135 games played
the average actual result is 12.5 points away from the handicap however these include outliers i.e
about 10% (14 games) had a result of 2 points or fewer from the handicap and on the other end of the normal distribution 11% (15 games) the average is 33 points away, all of those came in over 27 points away.
47% (64 games) had result of 10 points or more away from the handicap.
there were no draws, but 6 games came in on 0.5 points away.
and the sweet spot in the middle? 60% of games (81 of the 135) had an average of 10.5 points away.
i see you're bargaining on about 6 or 7 points away from the handicap, in 2016 44 games came in closer than 6 points so that would've saved you 66% of the time assuming you have all the directions correct, which means every 1 in 3 you're bound not to be safe enough. How many games are you stringing together again?
LOL but these are just averages, the skill is in identifying the value and i agree (fingers crossed) with all 3 those bets of you guys, it's just that i prefer to go for the highest odds as it seems to me -12.5 or-11.5 is almost (two thirds) as likely to come in as -7.5 and -6.5.
HT/FT
Force/Crusaders @ 7.00
Draw/Crusaders @ 26.00
On your argument that bigger handicaps should be more secure, you are absolutely correct. but obviously for a lower return as is shown by having to pick 3 games together for that 15/10 return.
just want to point out that in the 2016 regular season if you look at the actual results vs the bookie handicaps (measured each Thursday night and looking at caps on 0.9 decimal odds) you will find
135 games played
the average actual result is 12.5 points away from the handicap however these include outliers i.e
about 10% (14 games) had a result of 2 points or fewer from the handicap and on the other end of the normal distribution 11% (15 games) the average is 33 points away, all of those came in over 27 points away.
47% (64 games) had result of 10 points or more away from the handicap.
there were no draws, but 6 games came in on 0.5 points away.
and the sweet spot in the middle? 60% of games (81 of the 135) had an average of 10.5 points away.
i see you're bargaining on about 6 or 7 points away from the handicap, in 2016 44 games came in closer than 6 points so that would've saved you 66% of the time assuming you have all the directions correct, which means every 1 in 3 you're bound not to be safe enough. How many games are you stringing together again?
LOL but these are just averages, the skill is in identifying the value and i agree (fingers crossed) with all 3 those bets of you guys, it's just that i prefer to go for the highest odds as it seems to me -12.5 or-11.5 is almost (two thirds) as likely to come in as -7.5 and -6.5.
HT/FT
Force/Crusaders @ 7.00
Draw/Crusaders @ 26.00
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