OSU4life

I bet this too right before Angel Reese was declared out and the line moved to +11. 

Game: (601) Indiana Fever at (602) Connecticut Sun
Play: Indiana Fever -15.0 (-110)

 The Indiana Fever are a confident pick to cover the -15.5 spread against the Connecticut Sun, riding a red-hot offense and facing a depleted opponent. With Caitlin Clark back in the lineup, the Fever have won and covered their last two games, scoring 99 and 102 points, respectively, while ranking second in the WNBA in offensive rating over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Sun, with only three wins this season and the league’s worst defensive rating, are further hampered by the absence of Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles playing at less than 100% due to a shoulder injury. This mismatch sets up Indiana to dominate from start to finish.

Game: (603) Washington Mystics at (604) Los Angeles Sparks

Play: Washington Mystics -115

Normally, I like betting against super-hot teams. I know a lot of people like riding hot streaks, but I'm of the opposite, though, in wanting to predict when that overvalued team on an extended run will finally lose.

But that won't be for this selection, as after winning three in a row, I think the 11-10 Mystics will keep that momentum rolling here. And then they'll play LA again at home next week after the All-Star break.

The Sparks enter 7-14 and having traded wins for losses over their last four games. Off a tighter-than-expected 92-88 win over Connecticut at home as a 10.5-point favorite, I think the injury-plagued Sparks will have difficulty keeping pace with the suddenly surging Mystics.

The Washington defense has been particularly sharp of late, and there's no reason not to think that the Mystics won't be able to carry that momentum over here, as they've held back-to-back tough offensive opponents to 70 points or less, giving up 68 to Las Vegas and then 69 to Seattle.

Not only are the Sparks missing a few key pieces, but they also rank 12th in the league in defensive rating.

I lost against the Mystics in their last game against Seattle, as I had the Storm -6.5. I don't usually "flip-flop" on teams from one game to the next, and that's not the case here.

Each game, of course, though, has to be looked at as its own entity, and for me, I love the way this one sets up for Washington. I'm also "looking ahead" here, though, as well. If the Mystics do stumble here, I'll almost assuredly take them at home in this matchup next week as well in the revenge spot.

Play: Total Over 163.5 (-110)

Look for a high scoring game here as my system in this one averages 176 points per game. I am playing the over for ANY home team off a home favored win and spread loss if they are not laying more than 7 points and are taking on a team like Washington that is off a road dog win in their last game and the total is less than 184. This the first meeting between the two teams this season. LA has gone over in 3 straight and likely plays Washington into a fast paced game that plays over the total.

Adding: 

Play: Phoenix Mercury +2.5 (-110)

Just a really good spot for the Mercury here in my estimation. They're 5-3 SU on the road and off back-to-back home wins, most recently a 79-71 win over Minnesota. They beat Golden State by a score of 86-77 at home back in early June and I predict a similar final outcome here as well. Clearly, Golden State has exceeded expectations this year. The Valkyries are 10-10 overall and 7-3 at home, but look for the red-hot Mercury to exploit this matchup again and to not only cover, but pull off the slight upset in the process. That said, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Game: (629) Minnesota Lynx at (630) Chicago Sky

Play: Total Under 162.0 (-110)

Minnesota is 7-4 SU on the road, while Chicago is 4-4 SU at home.

The Lynx will be eager to avenge an 87-81 loss here on Saturday, as this is the second game of a back-to-back against each other in Chicago.

Minnesota is currently just 1-2 on its road trip, and it lost the first game here on Saturday by a score of 87-81 as an 11.5-point favorite. The total blasted past the posted number of 181.5 in that, but now I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here in the rematch.

With a home game against the 14-6 Mercury up next, which is a revenge game from a 79-71 loss at Phoenix on July 9th, the Lynx have to be careful here.

Angel Reese and the Sky have been playing a lot of better of late, but after back-to-back SU victories, and after covering the spread eight games in a row for bettors, something has to give here between these clubs.

Can Chicago continue its recent up-swing in play, or will it get caught "looking ahead" to its home game against the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed Atlanta Dream on Wednesday night?

Probably pretty difficult to look past the Lynx ever, but I do feel that it's the Sky could potentially suffer a massive letdown here.

When betting totals (in any sport), I like to bet what I perceive to be great "situations," and that's indeed the case with this selection.

I expect a very low-scoring defensive battle in this one, so the play is on the UNDER

The Minnesota Lynx are a strong play to cover the -10.5 spread against the Chicago Sky, backed by their dominant response to losses and a favorable historical trend. This season, the Lynx are 4-0 straight-up and against the spread after a loss, winning by an average of 13.2 points per game. Coming off an 87-81 upset loss to the Sky as double-digit road favorites, Minnesota is poised to bounce back as the league’s best team on both offense and defense. With equal rest and no travel for either team, the Lynx are in a prime spot to make adjustments and dominate, as they’ve done consistently after setbacks.

In their previous matchup, the Sky exploited the Lynx’s interior defense, outscoring them 44-28 in the paint and 28-10 on second-chance points, the positive for the Lynx defense was that they forcing 19 turnovers. This time around, I think the Lynx are expected to counter by focusing on rebounding and shutting down the paint. The Sky’s poor 27% three-point shooting (4/15) suggests they’ll struggle if Minnesota forces them to rely on outside shots. A historical trend further bolsters the Lynx: since 2015, road favorites off a loss as road favorites are 49-22-2 ATS (69%), including 14-4-1 when favored by at least 8 points. Expect the Lynx to make this game uncomfortable for the Sky and cover the -10.5 spread comfortably.

ADDING:

Wings v. Fever

FG Under 175 points

FH Wings +6

Both half units.

I am least confident on the Atlanta Dreams pick. Almost went Liberty ML but didn't want to pay the juice. So, play carefully on that pick.

Game: (625) Connecticut Sun at (626) Los Angeles Sparks

Play: Los Angeles Sparks -10.5 (-110)

Just a great situational play here. Connecticut is just 1-10 on the road, while LA is only 1-8 at home. The Sun, though, have a "look-ahead" game here vs. Indiana and Caitlin Clark on Tuesday, though. LA beat the Fever 89-87 in Indian last week, but then fell to a determined Minnesota team here 91-82. The Sparks have been playing a lot better of late, and I think that offensive progression continues here against the putrid Sun. Lay the points with confidence!

Game: (627) Washington Mystics at (628) Seattle Storm

Play: Seattle Storm -6.0 (-110)

Seattle is coming off a home-and-home set against the Sun, somehow losing in Connecticut, but then bouncing back in a 79-65 victory at home on Friday.

I think the Storm carry over that momentum here and not only win this first matchup of the year against Washington, but do so in blowout fashion.

Just a great "situational" play here, as I anticipate Washington to have a letdown here on the road after back-to-back home wins as a favorite and with a game on Tuesday to "look ahead" to in LA.

The Mystics are just 3-7 on the road. The Storm are 7-3 at home.

Look for the STORM to rumble to a comfortable win and cover.

Game: (623) Atlanta Dream at (624) New York Liberty

Play: Atlanta Dream +4.0 (-112)

At 3 eastern the WNBA power system play is on Atlanta. The Dream have played the Liberty tough this year splitting a pair of games and winning the last one. They apply to 2 undefeated WNBA Systems today. First we are playing on road dogs at 14 or less off a road dog loss allowing 90+ points vs a team off a home favored win, if they won the last game in the series as a home favorite. These teams have covered the only 6 times and all of them one as a straight up dog. The Liberty and any home favorite off a home favored win with 4+ days rest are 0-5 straight up vs a team off a loss if they have road dog loss . revenge. Atlanta has covered 5 straight as a road dog of 2 or more. Take the points with Atlanta.

@OSU4life

 **CORRECTION** - This should have been OVER. Sorry for any confusion.

Game: (619) Golden State Valkyries at (620) Las Vegas Aces

Play: Total Under 155.0 (-110)

More plays later...

Game: (613) Atlanta Dream at (614) Indiana Fever

Play: Indiana Fever -142

The Fever are 9-10 and coming off a humbling blowout loss to Golden State, but with Caitlin Clark and Damiris Dantas returning to form like I suspect, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done on Friday night.

Indiana has definitely looked shaky at times this year, but also fantastic in winning the Commissioner's Cup.

The Dream are 12-7 and fourth in the WNBA overall. They're already 2-1 against the Fever this year. They've been alternating wins/losses over their last four games, though, and I believe this pattern continues here against Indiana, who is looking to snap a two-game slide.

Keep your eyes on Clark, though, because when she has played this year, she's been great by averaging 17.4 points, 8.6 assists, five rebounds, and 1.5 steals, while making 30.1% of her 3-pointers.

The fact of the matter is that both teams have a lot of talent. The Dream are led by Allisha Gray, who averages 19.4 points per game.

Kelsey Mitchell actually leads Atlanta in scoring this year at 18.9 per contest.

With upcoming games against the lowly Wings and Sun, the Fever have a legitimate shot at putting together a three-game win streak.

Atlanta has another big game in New York on Saturday, so could also be caught "looking ahead" in this one.

I say the hungrier and revenge-minded home side finds a way to get the job done. Instead of laying the points, though, let's instead lay the reasonable moneyline option on INDIANA to win straight-up.

Game: (615) Connecticut Sun at (616) Seattle Storm

Play: Total Under 158.0 (-110)

At 10 eastern the WNBA Late night Bailout total is on the Under in the Connecticut at Seattle game. Right back revenge game here for Seattle who lost as a huge road favorite to the Sun last out. So we looked at home favorites of 10 or more  off a road favored loss at -8 or more are 7-0 under if the total is between 152 and 180. Connecticut put up 90 against the Storm last out but will have a much tougher time here a we expect a top level defensive effort tonight at home for Seattle. The Storm likely wins here in a game that stays under.

@OVLIVINLEGEND3

 Yes.

Adding: 

609) Minnesota Lynx at (610) Los Angeles O164.5 (-120)

Adding: 

Game: (611) Las Vegas Aces at (612) Washington Mystics

Play: Total Over 157.5 (-110)

A'Ja Wilson and the Aces are slight dogs here in Washington. Las Vegas has been trading wins/losses over its last six games, and off an 87-78 loss at New York last time out, they'll be hoping that trend continues in the Nation's capital on Thursday night.

Washington snapped a two-game slide with an 81-79 victory over Chicago here and I'm expecting it to carry that momentum over here at home.

Las Vegas plays with the added incentive of revenge as well here after a 94-86 home loss to Washington in late June as an 8.5 point favorite.

They blasted past the total of 160.5 in that one, and everything points to a similar final combined score here as well now in Washington in my opinion.

This number is low, the play is on the OVER.

Game: (609) Minnesota Lynx at (610) Los Angeles Sparks

Play: Minnesota Lynx -6.5 (-110)

Absolutely ridiculous. At about the 1:30 mark I started getting a bad feeling. Luckily Chicago covered which brought by day to 2-2 and just lost the juice. But could have been so much better.

@dktt

 Yea, guess they aren't used to playing this early - defense is optional today.

Adding Suns +17 FG

Game: (607) Dallas Wings at (608) Chicago Sky

Play: Chicago Sky pk -115

Chicago has convincingly beaten Dallas twice this season and dating back a year ago to May 18, 2024 they have beaten Dallas 5 straight times. They definitely have Dallas's number and without Dijonai Carrington and Arike Ogunbowale this team looked got blown out on the road in Phoenix few days ago and now u gotta travel to Chicago to play an angry Chicago squad that lost in Washington yesterday. They are playing on a back to back however they should be able to take care of a short handed Dallas team to get back on track.

Game: (607) Dallas Wings at (608) Chicago Sky

Play: Total Over 166.0 (-110)

The WNBA Totals Play is on the OVER in the Dallas at Chicago game at 8 eastern. From the database Rob notes that Home favorites with no rest like Chicago with a total of 152 or more are Perfect to the Over if the total is 152 or more and they have a losing record. Both games between the two have flown over the total with over 170 in each. Dallas is on a 5-0 over run on the road. Chicago is on a 5 of 6 over run. Play this one Over the total tonight

Game: (601) Seattle Storm at (602) Connecticut Sun

Play: Total Under 155.5 (-110)

Back on June 27, 2025 Seattle won 97-81 and game went over 156.5 and now in the rematch the total has dropped a full point. First of all that tells me Connecticut wont't put up 81 points or more in this game and secondly Seattle will apply some heavy defence to prevent that from happening. Seattle will definitely get their share of points but Connecticut will struggle offensively to score. Keep in mind this is a late morning game which both teams are not use to playing that early so I expect this to be a struggle offensively and more of a defensive battle. Take a look at the under in this matchup.

Possibly more later...

@LONG-TU

(621) Golden State Valkyries at (622) Atlanta Dream