Game: (629) Minnesota Lynx at (630) Chicago Sky
Play: Total Under 162.0 (-110)
Minnesota is 7-4 SU on the road, while Chicago is 4-4 SU at home.
The Lynx will be eager to avenge an 87-81 loss here on Saturday, as this is the second game of a back-to-back against each other in Chicago.
Minnesota is currently just 1-2 on its road trip, and it lost the first game here on Saturday by a score of 87-81 as an 11.5-point favorite. The total blasted past the posted number of 181.5 in that, but now I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here in the rematch.
With a home game against the 14-6 Mercury up next, which is a revenge game from a 79-71 loss at Phoenix on July 9th, the Lynx have to be careful here.
Angel Reese and the Sky have been playing a lot of better of late, but after back-to-back SU victories, and after covering the spread eight games in a row for bettors, something has to give here between these clubs.
Can Chicago continue its recent up-swing in play, or will it get caught "looking ahead" to its home game against the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed Atlanta Dream on Wednesday night?
Probably pretty difficult to look past the Lynx ever, but I do feel that it's the Sky could potentially suffer a massive letdown here.
When betting totals (in any sport), I like to bet what I perceive to be great "situations," and that's indeed the case with this selection.
I expect a very low-scoring defensive battle in this one, so the play is on the UNDER
The Minnesota Lynx are a strong play to cover the -10.5 spread against the Chicago Sky, backed by their dominant response to losses and a favorable historical trend. This season, the Lynx are 4-0 straight-up and against the spread after a loss, winning by an average of 13.2 points per game. Coming off an 87-81 upset loss to the Sky as double-digit road favorites, Minnesota is poised to bounce back as the league’s best team on both offense and defense. With equal rest and no travel for either team, the Lynx are in a prime spot to make adjustments and dominate, as they’ve done consistently after setbacks.
In their previous matchup, the Sky exploited the Lynx’s interior defense, outscoring them 44-28 in the paint and 28-10 on second-chance points, the positive for the Lynx defense was that they forcing 19 turnovers. This time around, I think the Lynx are expected to counter by focusing on rebounding and shutting down the paint. The Sky’s poor 27% three-point shooting (4/15) suggests they’ll struggle if Minnesota forces them to rely on outside shots. A historical trend further bolsters the Lynx: since 2015, road favorites off a loss as road favorites are 49-22-2 ATS (69%), including 14-4-1 when favored by at least 8 points. Expect the Lynx to make this game uncomfortable for the Sky and cover the -10.5 spread comfortably.
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