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Offensively, Atlanta is 4th in above the break three frequency while the Valkyries above the break three defense ranks 10th in that area, promising to stretch the floor and create driving lanes for Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. With Golden State’s road efficiency lagging, 2–5 SU and 3–4 ATS on the road, and their defense slipping to eighth on the road, the Dream should come out with an easy victory. 

Game: (623) Dallas Wings at (624) Phoenix Mercury

Play: Phoenix Mercury -6.0 (-110)

Enough is enough for Phoenix, which will look to avenge a 98-89 loss at Dallas as an 11.5-point favorite last week.

After six straight wins, the Mercury have cooled off with back-to-back losses as favorites, but I think that Satou Saballay and company will not only avenge their loss in Dallas, but do so in blowout fashion now here at home on Monday night.

I'm primarily a situational capper, and these are the types of circumstances that I'm constantly keeping my eyes open for during the season. Yes, the Wings are playing well right now as they've won three of their last four as a big underdog.

Dallas, though, is still just 6-13 overall this year, including only 2-7 on the road.

And despite their two-game slide, the Mercury are still 12-6 overall, including 7-3 at home.

Paige Buekers and the Wings have a much more "winnable" game at Chicago up after this, followed by a much more high-profile game at Indiana after that.

Not only does this set up as a natural ledown spot for the visitors after back-to-back wins as a big underdog in my opinion, but also a "look-ahead" spot.

And when you add those two factors together, you get "TRAP" game.

I say the hungry and revenge-minded home side snaps out of it, and keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Kahleah Copper and Satou Saballay were announced out this morning for the Mercury. That really made this line move dramatically. I like at -6 despite Copper being out. It's going to have a “next man up” mentality.

Lay the points with confidence on the MERCURY.