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The Atlanta Dream are coming off a narrow loss to Seattle, but enjoying a two-day rest advantage and the comfort of their third straight home game. The Valkyries however will be playing their 2nd game in the east coast. Historically, home favorites with at least two days’ or more extra rest over their opponent and are coming a loss as a favorite cover 68.8% of the time since 2018, and tonight’s spot fits that situation. Atlanta ranks fourth in the league in defensive rating at home and excels on the glass—boasting the NBA’s best defensive rebounding rate—which should neutralize Golden State’s strength on the offensive boards. Also, the Dream take care of the ball with the lowest turnover rate in the WNBA, so extra opportunities on the offensive boards and off turnovers that the Valkyries rely on will likely not be there.

Offensively, Atlanta is 4th in above the break three frequency while the Valkyries above the break three defense ranks 10th in that area, promising to stretch the floor and create driving lanes for Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. With Golden State’s road efficiency lagging, 2–5 SU and 3–4 ATS on the road, and their defense slipping to eighth on the road, the Dream should come out with an easy victory. 

 

Game: (623) Dallas Wings at (624) Phoenix Mercury

Play: Phoenix Mercury -6.0 (-110)

Enough is enough for Phoenix, which will look to avenge a 98-89 loss at Dallas as an 11.5-point favorite last week.

After six straight wins, the Mercury have cooled off with back-to-back losses as favorites, but I think that Satou Saballay and company will not only avenge their loss in Dallas, but do so in blowout fashion now here at home on Monday night.

I'm primarily a situational capper, and these are the types of circumstances that I'm constantly keeping my eyes open for during the season. Yes, the Wings are playing well right now as they've won three of their last four as a big underdog.

Dallas, though, is still just 6-13 overall this year, including only 2-7 on the road.

And despite their two-game slide, the Mercury are still 12-6 overall, including 7-3 at home.

Paige Buekers and the Wings have a much more "winnable" game at Chicago up after this, followed by a much more high-profile game at Indiana after that.

Not only does this set up as a natural ledown spot for the visitors after back-to-back wins as a big underdog in my opinion, but also a "look-ahead" spot.

And when you add those two factors together, you get "TRAP" game.

I say the hungry and revenge-minded home side snaps out of it, and keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish.

Kahleah Copper and Satou Saballay were announced out this morning for the Mercury. That really made this line move dramatically. I like at -6 despite Copper being out. It's going to have a “next man up” mentality.

Lay the points with confidence on the MERCURY.