Game: (611) Los Angeles Sparks at (612) Indiana Fever
Date/Time: Jul 5 2025 7:00 PM EDT
Play #1: Total Over 164.5 (-113)
These teams have been playing in several lower-scoring games of late, including in the Sparks' 85-75 win here a week ago as a nine-point dog.
The Sparks then went out and lost back-to-back games to Chicago and New York.
But now the revenge-minded home side comes in on fire, fresh off the upset win on the road in Minnesota in the Commissioners Cup, it then beat Dallas 94-86 and Las Vegas 81-54.
The Sparks are led by Kelsey Plum, and while they're managing 81.8 points per game, they're still just 5-13 overall this season.
LA's weakness is for sure on the defensive end, where it concedes 86.8 points per game. And with forward Cameron Brink out for this game, LA's defensive unit becomes even more of a liability here on the road.
You'd think that Caitlin Clark would be a key part during this recent Fever surge, but she's been sidelined with injury. And whether Clark plays in this one or not, I like Kelsey Mitchell and the rest of the Fever to keep the momentum rolling and overall pace really high in this contest as they try to avenge last week's loss.
So with each team pushing the pace like I believe they will, I'm expecting this total to fly well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.
Play #2: Los Angeles Sparks +5.5 (-110)
The Sparks arrive in Indianapolis off a stretch of mixed results but with key pieces Julie Allemand and Rae Burrell back in the fold. In their win over the Fever earlier this season—an 85-75 upset as road underdogs—the Sparks showcased their ability to overwhelm Indiana’s shooters, limiting the Fever to just 25% from three despite committing 19 turnovers themselves. Kelsey Plum and Azura Stevens combined for 44 points that night, and with most of their weapons fully available now, Los Angeles should once again challenge Indiana’s perimeter defense and attack the paint effectively.
Meanwhile, the Fever, despite winning the Commissioner’s Cup and easing past the Lynx and Aces, remain without Caitlin Clark and have shown offensive inconsistency without her. Their recent success has come primarily on the defensive end, but against a Sparks lineup riding momentum and benefiting from improved health, Indiana’s scoring and defense will be tested. Historical trends bolster the Spark’s cause: road underdogs playing at least a second straight away game against a team on at least a three-game cover streak are 22-6-1 ATS since 2019. All signs point to another tight affair where the visiting Sparks can cover the +5.5 spread.
Hot Forum Topics
