Game: (601) Indiana Fever at (602) Connecticut Sun
Play: Indiana Fever -15.0 (-110)
The Indiana Fever are a confident pick to cover the -15.5 spread against the Connecticut Sun, riding a red-hot offense and facing a depleted opponent. With Caitlin Clark back in the lineup, the Fever have won and covered their last two games, scoring 99 and 102 points, respectively, while ranking second in the WNBA in offensive rating over their last five games. Meanwhile, the Sun, with only three wins this season and the league’s worst defensive rating, are further hampered by the absence of Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles playing at less than 100% due to a shoulder injury. This mismatch sets up Indiana to dominate from start to finish.
Game: (603) Washington Mystics at (604) Los Angeles Sparks
Play: Washington Mystics -115
Normally, I like betting against super-hot teams. I know a lot of people like riding hot streaks, but I'm of the opposite, though, in wanting to predict when that overvalued team on an extended run will finally lose.
But that won't be for this selection, as after winning three in a row, I think the 11-10 Mystics will keep that momentum rolling here. And then they'll play LA again at home next week after the All-Star break.
The Sparks enter 7-14 and having traded wins for losses over their last four games. Off a tighter-than-expected 92-88 win over Connecticut at home as a 10.5-point favorite, I think the injury-plagued Sparks will have difficulty keeping pace with the suddenly surging Mystics.
The Washington defense has been particularly sharp of late, and there's no reason not to think that the Mystics won't be able to carry that momentum over here, as they've held back-to-back tough offensive opponents to 70 points or less, giving up 68 to Las Vegas and then 69 to Seattle.
Not only are the Sparks missing a few key pieces, but they also rank 12th in the league in defensive rating.
I lost against the Mystics in their last game against Seattle, as I had the Storm -6.5. I don't usually "flip-flop" on teams from one game to the next, and that's not the case here.
Each game, of course, though, has to be looked at as its own entity, and for me, I love the way this one sets up for Washington. I'm also "looking ahead" here, though, as well. If the Mystics do stumble here, I'll almost assuredly take them at home in this matchup next week as well in the revenge spot.
Play: Total Over 163.5 (-110)
Look for a high scoring game here as my system in this one averages 176 points per game. I am playing the over for ANY home team off a home favored win and spread loss if they are not laying more than 7 points and are taking on a team like Washington that is off a road dog win in their last game and the total is less than 184. This the first meeting between the two teams this season. LA has gone over in 3 straight and likely plays Washington into a fast paced game that plays over the total.
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