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@AMD what about the Dolphins who are a bottom 5 offense in terms of point production and sit in a strong AFC east division.
A tough schedule overall where in the first 4 weeks they play NE,HOU,SD. Miami wins 3-5 games IMHO. what do you guys think? |
amd | 121 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio: Would lean towards the UN but not enough to make it a play for me at least. UNDERS with a chance COL/FLA CLV/MIN PHI/STL TOR/K.C.
Thanks KS, always looking at your threads and a few others (kane, target9, pucku, webble, megamaniak) for insight as to what i should be on or stay farrrr away from if you happen to be on the other side! BOL tonight and always. |
KingScorpio | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane: JZA - Very good mojo for both Pujols & Holliday during this stretch of games. I never fade the Cardinals when both those guys have good mojo. The Cardinals' offense can be streaky. This seems to be the week where their offense picks up. Thanks kane. anything of substance as to the under 9 in wsh/cincy?....i like it a lot, just looking for a reason to drop the hammer |
HappyKane | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio: Overall Record 240-252-14 +11.27 Units PIT ml +118 WSH ml +160 CLV ml +165 ARZ ml +110
GL
no unders tonight? any thoughts as to the under 9 in wsh/cincy since you took twsh? |
KingScorpio | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JZA: Hey Kane, always a follower of your threads, just looking for some insight from you as to the following: Under 9 in reds/nationals...leake's last 3 home starts have been rough, although the nats bats don't worry me so much especially since he scattered 7 hits over 7 innings in a start against them in June (5-1 final score) atliano also had a quality start against the reds in that game scattering 6 hits over 7 innings...........is it simply a matter of you seeing the same thing happening here, or is there more to this play?.....i like it, i want to drop the hammer but i want to here your thoughts. Phillies lost 4/5, been hitting the ball each game (not pounding, but putting up enough hits to get runs)....CC on the mound for the cardinals at home always attacks $$$, so I think there is a lot of value in taking philly here........any insight? Thanks and BOL your insight would be greatly appreciated here...i like to hear your angle as to a particular play/side....thanks |
HappyKane | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane: 2-2 on Monday.
5u 3-1 *** GAME OF THE MONTH ***
3u 6-6 *** GAME OF THE WEEK *** 2u 30-30 *** PICK OF THE DAY *** 1u 87-75
YTD +$1700 100/119 Pittsburgh Pirates +119
110/100 Nationals/Reds Under 9 -110
Will add the Over in the Rangers/Tigers game but i'm going to wait for the line i want.
Hey Kane, always a follower of your threads, just looking for some insight from you as to the following: Under 9 in reds/nationals...leake's last 3 home starts have been rough, although the nats bats don't worry me so much especially since he scattered 7 hits over 7 innings in a start against them in June (5-1 final score) atliano also had a quality start against the reds in that game scattering 6 hits over 7 innings...........is it simply a matter of you seeing the same thing happening here, or is there more to this play?.....i like it, i want to drop the hammer but i want to here your thoughts. Phillies lost 4/5, been hitting the ball each game (not pounding, but putting up enough hits to get runs)....CC on the mound for the cardinals at home always attacks $$$, so I think there is a lot of value in taking philly here........any insight? Thanks and BOL |
HappyKane | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JZA: Red Sox are always publicly backed at home, that's a given regardless of the %'s you see on this website. I'm banking on the following: -T.Hunter gets supreme run support from his lineup. -T.Hunter is 5-0 and has yet to pitch himself out of a game. -Red Sox are very very banged up. -Rangers lost 4 in a row vs. Balty and will show up for this series, period. (many will argue to not bet on any team with a loosing streak) That's why I'm wondering why Kane is leaning Boston...I would actually have expected him to make Texas a POD, or at least a 1 unit play... Also, Target-9 has a 3unit play on Texas, and he has been rolling for weeks now... I don't think this smells like a trap on the Texas side at all here...if anything, I would argue that the line is begging for Boston action. I'm dropping the hammer. |
HappyKane | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by flyp: The public points to the Red Sox, but my initial lean was Rangers right out of the gate. I feel something shady about this game Red Sox are always publicly backed at home, that's a given regardless of the %'s you see on this website. I'm banking on the following: -T.Hunter gets supreme run support from his lineup. -T.Hunter is 5-0 and has yet to pitch himself out of a game. -Red Sox are very very banged up. -Rangers lost 4 in a row vs. Balty and will show up for this series, period. (many will argue to not bet on any team with a loosing streak) That's why I'm wondering why Kane is leaning Boston...I would actually have expected him to make Texas a POD, or at least a 1 unit play... |
HappyKane | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by HappyKane: Thursday, July 15. American League:
TEX: Tommy Hunter R (5-0, 2.34) C- is 1-1 w/a 11.74 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox.
BOS: Tim Wakefield R (3-7, 5.22) B is 10-15 w/a 6.09 ERA in thirty-four appearances (twenty-seven starts) against the Rangers.
Ephemerides note: Hunter ^SUtJU _VEsSA, Wakefield ^ maybe
Run support for Hunter: 7.29
Run support for Wakefield: 4.38
TEX's BA against Wakefield: .287
BOS's BA aginst Hunter: negligible
Lean: Red Sox
CWS: John Danks L (8-7, 3.29) B is 4-6 w/a 5.03 ERA in fifteen starts against the Twins.
MIN: Kevin Slowey R (8-5, 4.64) C+ is 2-3 w/a 5.66 ERA in seven games (six starts) against the White Sox.
Ephemerides note: Danks ^SU*MA fair, Slowey ^SUtMA maybe
Run support for Danks: 4.32
Run support for Slowey: 5.33
CWS's BA against Slowey: .299
MIN's BA against Danks: .318 (Cuddyer 18-36 .500)
SEA: Doug Fister R (3-4, 3.09) C- is 1-0 w/a 2.51 ERA in two starts against the Angels.
LAA: Joel Piñeiro R (9-6, 3.95) B-/C+ is 1-1 w/a 5.87 ERA in three games (one start) against the Mariners.
Ephemerides note: Fister _MEsMA no^, Piñeiro _VEcSA
Run support for Fister: 3.46
Run support for Piñeiro: 5.00
SEA's BA against Piñeiro: negligible
LAA's BA against Fister: negligible Kane, Can you explain why you lean Red Sox when all the numbers (qualified statistics, nothing flukie) point to T.Hunter being a winning machine. |
HappyKane | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: I cant really argue any of this. You left out a very important part of the equation: The price. Van, i respect and appreciate the insight you have given on each match very much. I see that you are hoping for the Netherlands to hold Brazil to only 1 score in regulation. I have not seen any reason why this would occur, and simply put, I think that Brazil scores at least 2 goals within the 90 minutes and the Netherlands will finish with 1 goal. I am going to ask you this question; all things equal, does the price (not cheap, but not over the top) of Brazil to advance at -200 to -210 really matter? |
vanzack | 835 |
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Quote Originally Posted by freddiefan09: Juice is a bit high, but, if Haren is the DBacks Ace, then they really need an Ace : Haren has CC only in K/BBs. Of 76 games AZ has played, they've won 12 on the road and have one of the worse Pens in the league. When you go to his (Haren's) record: he's 7-6 and 7-9 Tm; 13-3 O/U and Tm has won only 2 away games w/ him, @ Houst and @ Col - some time ago. CC, on the other hand is: 9-1 12-4 Tm; 7-1 @ H and 8-2 @night. On top of all that: Stl is 18-7 in 1st game of series and 11-2 when they loose the previous game. Lastly, they have to be lickin their chops to get this team at home after having to play AZ in AZ 6 straight times TY.
I like it, freddiefan09. Your first statement about the juice being a bit high, actually speaks volumes to me when capping this game. if it was -130 to -150 everyone would jump on CC at home because of the short line, but since its -165 to -175 many people are thinking this one over, especially going against another teams best SP. The books don't want everyone on one side here, and even though your analysis points to taking STL, you still questioned the line being a bit high...that's why this line is perfect, that's why you pound a game like this one! BOL |
JZA | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by novascotia04: I am on STL .... I think they will have a strong performance after yesterdays disgrace against the Royals, and I think Carpenter will pitch well. same here - i can see CC pitching his game into the 7th/8th inning and if we are lucky enough to get into AZ's bullpen any earlier than that we should coast to a W. BOL |
JZA | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Izzy_Action: For a minute I began to think that CC Sabathia was a Cardinal. Nice Write Up. |
JZA | 20 |
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well said SHO. you are one of the cappers i always look to for insight when capping a game, although you don't post a write up, i always take into account your picks when looking to build a card for the day.
any leans / plays for tonights card? |
SHO | 30 |
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Quote Originally Posted by mrenigma: |
JZA | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer: Considering the fact that the Cards know Haren well... he still pitches well against them. I agree this will be a close game but Carpenters not invincible and you'll see a bit of that tonight against an underrated Dbacks lineup. I like a 3-2 game either way, so I'll take the + money. Fair enough. Thanks for the insight. One of us will come out a winner, BOL |
JZA | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by princeth: Cardinals win by 1. 'win' is all i need to cash it, doesn't matter if it's by 1 or by 10. i see a 4-1 or 3-1 type game here, in favor of STL |
JZA | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by SportsMoneyNow: |
JZA | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dj_destroyer: Well.... I also sprinkled the ML. I like Haren here. what makes you think Haren pitches as well or better than CC in this matchup? |
JZA | 20 |
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- STL Cardinals vs. AZ Diamondbacks -
Current line: -165 I have only seen a few cappers on this game and most are hoping for an upset special with AZ (some well respected cappers also took AZ to upset yesterday and ended up cashing a W). Many of the same cappers had STL as a lock yesterday, and they bombed to the Royals. That said, I want to see what people out there are thinking for today's matchup Here's my 2 cents of a write up: -A battle of ace's, STL has CC on the bump while AZ counters with Dan Haren -CC tossed a 3 hit shutout against the BJAYS and their ace R.Romero in his last start -CC is 3-1 (1 ND) in his last 5 starts at home. The home loss (also, CC's only loss this season) was caused by 1 inning in which all 4 runs were scored on a double and a home run. CC only received 1 run of support from his team on this day as well -CC has thrown for less than 7 complete innings in only 3 of his last 10 starts = he goes very deep into games giving his team a chance to win consistently -CC has only given up 1 home run in his last 5 starts = good news against a light hitting AZ team who needs the long ball to win these type of games -STL hasn't been getting much production from their lineup all season long but still has a 23-12 home record in 2010 -Haren is 4-0 lifetime against STL -Haren has won 1 game in his last 5 road starts (1-3, with 1 ND) -Haren has given up a HR in each of his last 3 starts and has given up 13 HR's in his last 10 starts -AZ are 10-22 in their last 32 overall -AZ are 12-28 on the road in 2010 Pick: The line opened @ -175 and has since dropped to -165. I am not worried about a 'trap' in this game because with CC at home his price ranges from -200 to -230...this line is adjusted because he is facing another ace in Haren. I don't think Haren is worth the 35-65 cent adjustment, not this season at all. Also, if this line were screaming trap it would beg for STL money only if it was less than -150, at -165 to -175 you are still paying a premium to have CC at home. Cardinals lost 2/3 to the Royals, they didn't show up yesterday at all. Diamondbacks won 2/3 from the Rays, yet they only managed to score 6 runs in those 3 games combined. Something gives here, and its CC rolling through the Diamondback lineup all night long. - STL Cardinals -165 - LOCKED IN |
JZA | 20 |
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