- STL Cardinals vs. AZ Diamondbacks - write up, pick, discussion...

- STL Cardinals vs. AZ Diamondbacks -
Current line: -165

I have only seen a few cappers on this game and most are hoping for an upset special with AZ (some well respected cappers also took AZ to upset yesterday and ended up cashing a W). Many of the same cappers had STL as a lock yesterday, and they bombed to the Royals.

That said, I want to see what people out there are thinking for today's matchup

Here's my 2 cents of a write up:
-A battle of ace's, STL has CC on the bump while AZ counters with Dan Haren
-CC tossed a 3 hit shutout against the BJAYS and their ace R.Romero in his last start
-CC is 3-1 (1 ND) in his last 5 starts at home. The home loss (also, CC's only loss this season) was caused by 1 inning in which all 4 runs were scored on a double and a home run. CC only received 1 run of support from his team on this day as well
-CC has thrown for less than 7 complete innings in only 3 of his last 10 starts = he goes very deep into games giving his team a chance to win consistently
-CC has only given up 1 home run in his last 5 starts = good news against a light hitting AZ team who needs the long ball to win these type of games
-STL hasn't been getting much production from their lineup all season long but still has a 23-12 home record in 2010
 
-Haren is 4-0 lifetime against STL
-Haren has won 1 game in his last 5 road starts (1-3, with 1 ND)
-Haren has given up a HR in each of his last 3 starts and has given up 13 HR's in his last 10 starts
-AZ are 10-22 in their last 32 overall
-AZ are 12-28 on the road in 2010

Pick:
The line opened @ -175 and has since dropped to -165.
I am not worried about a 'trap' in this game because with CC at home his price ranges from -200 to -230...this line is adjusted because he is facing another ace in Haren. I don't think Haren is worth the 35-65 cent adjustment, not this season at all. Also, if this line were screaming trap it would beg for STL money only if it was less than -150, at -165 to -175 you are still paying a premium to have CC at home.

Cardinals lost 2/3 to the Royals, they didn't show up yesterday at all.
Diamondbacks won 2/3 from the Rays, yet they only managed to score 6 runs in those 3 games combined.

Something gives here, and its CC rolling through the Diamondback lineup all night long.

- STL Cardinals -165 - LOCKED IN

Cardinals win by 1. 

Dbacks ML looks pretty tempting... but I just went with the U7.5 [-122]. GL

Well.... I also sprinkled the ML. I like Haren here. 

what makes you think Haren pitches as well or better than CC in this matchup?

'win' is all i need to cash it, doesn't matter if it's by 1 or by 10.

i see a 4-1 or 3-1 type game here, in favor of STL

Considering the fact that the Cards know Haren well... he still pitches well against them. I agree this will be a close game but Carpenters not invincible and you'll see a bit of that tonight against an underrated Dbacks lineup. I like a 3-2 game either way, so I'll take the + money.

Fair enough. Thanks for the insight. One of us will come out a winner, BOL

For a minute I began to think that CC Sabathia was a Cardinal.  Nice Write Up.

I am on STL .... I think they will have a strong performance after yesterdays disgrace against the Royals, and I think Carpenter will pitch well. 

Juice is a bit high, but, if Haren is the DBacks Ace, then they really need an Ace : Haren has CC only in K/BBs.

Of 76 games AZ has played, they've won 12 on the road and have one of the worse Pens in the league. When you go to his (Haren's) record: he's 7-6 and 7-9 Tm; 13-3 O/U and Tm has won only 2 away games w/ him, @ Houst and @ Col - some time ago.

CC, on the other hand is: 9-1 12-4 Tm; 7-1 @ H and 8-2 @night.

On top of all that: Stl is 18-7 in 1st game of series and 11-2 when they loose the previous game. Lastly, they have to be lickin their chops to get this team at home after having to play AZ in AZ 6 straight times TY.

 

 

same here - i can see CC pitching his game into the 7th/8th inning and if we are lucky enough to get into AZ's bullpen any earlier than that we should coast to a W.

BOL

I like it, freddiefan09.

Your first statement about the juice being a bit high, actually speaks volumes to me when capping this game. if it was -130 to -150 everyone would jump on CC at home because of the short line, but since its -165 to -175 many people are thinking this one over, especially going against another teams best SP.

The books don't want everyone on one side here, and even though your analysis points to taking STL, you still questioned the line being a bit high...that's why this line is perfect, that's why you pound a game like this one!

BOL

How anybody can bet against the cardinals in this spot is crazy.  You may get lucky, but odds are Cards cover the runline +125