Always a fun event with the stadium atmosphere. Pretty straightforward course this week at TPC Scottsdale. This is a tournament that we usually see a winning score around 18-20 under par and is pretty balanced in terms of not having one statistical category being overly important. This is a par 71 that measures out at 7,261 yards, although it is at elevation so it will play a little shorter than that. Very driver heavy golf course off the tee and playing out of the rough is extremely easy, ranking dead last on the pga tour in rough penalty. The only concern is the big miss as there is some water on 5 holes and the desert areas can be very penile but only come in play with very wayward drives. The majority of approach shots will come from 150-200 yards so middle iron play is very important, and we do pretty consistently see elite approach players win at this event. It’s also imperative to capitalize on the par 5’s as they are quite easy and reachable in 2 shots. In terms of around the green and putting, this course ranks below average in difficulty in both and poor putters have frequently won here, which will lead me to be much more keen to dial in on elite ball strikers first and foremost. Course history has been pretty predictive here as well as guys tend to play well here year after year. So to recap I want to play good total drivers off the tee, very good approach players particularly with the middle irons, and guys who have played well here and on tpc courses in the past. Guys who play well on desert courses is something I’ll look at as well given the somewhat unique conditions.
The first bet I made is Kurt kitayama, who is a vegas guy thus very familiar with desert conditions. Has an 8th and 23rd finish here in his 2 starts. He ranks 6th in this field in approach play for last 36 rounds, as well as 4th in this field in strokes gained off the tee. Also has a good track record on tpc courses ranking in the top 20 in this field. Checks all the boxes for me and loved the price. Thinking on a couple others will be back
Kurt Kitayama (65-1)
I agree on the woodland look as well. Dudes striking the ball quite well right now, if he can get the putter going I’d expect to see him in the mix. GL dude 
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