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    All Forums | Pro Golf

    Waste Management picks

    12 Next Last»
    alangrrbs
    jmitseff
    LeRinkRat
    AJLightning
    Wander Bread
    ...
    Participants:
    Search
    Views: 2599
    Posts: 44
    12 Next Last»
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 8:50 PM ET #1

    Podcast is up.  Jimitseff, let me know how we did with your challenge 

    Toooooons of picks I like this week.  Let's get to it!

    Brendan Steele ov Rickie Fowler

    In 2017, Brendan Steele has finished 20th, 6th, and 6th.  Fowler has finished 36th and a MC.  People are going to remember last years 2nd place finish from Fowler, but the three years before that he finished 46th, and had 2 missed cuts.  In fact, Steele has more top 10 finishes at this tourney than Fowler.

    Russell Knox ov Zach Johnson

    Knox has 8 straight top 20 finishes in a row, and continues to be the most underrated golfer at PGA events.  Zach has 2 missed cuts in the last 4 tourneys he's played in.  I said at the beginning of the year that I would play Knox a lot this year because I thought the books would give us a ton of value in H2H matchups, and this is one of them.

    Keegan Bradley ov Daniel Berger

    Keegan looks like he's heating up!!!  He really struggled with putting last year, but started to improve at the end of they year.  He finished last year 183rd in putting, but he's already up to 110th.  Ball striking has been fine, and Keegan has finished 25th, and 4th the last 2 tournaments.  Berger meanwhile has a 45th and a missed cut the last two tourneys.  On paper this looks like two golfers heading in opposite directions.

    Brian Harman ov Kevin Na

    This looks like a "Name vs. Numbers" matchup.  Kevin Na is well known, and has had past success on tour.  Brian Harman is a relative unknown to the general golf public, but here are the numbers.  Harman the last three tournaments has a 20th, 3rd, and a 9th.  Na has a 70th and a 36th.  And at this tournament he only has 1 top 20 finish.  Na is not a horse for this course, and is in way worse form.

    Webb Simpson ov Ryan Palmer

    Don't look now, but Ryan Palmer hasn't made a cut in 2017.  Simpson has finished better than Palmer the two tournaments they've played together in 2017.  And if we dig even deeper, here's my favorite stat for this play:  The last four Waste Management tournaments they've played together in, Webb is 4-0 head to head against Palmer.

    Phil Mickelson ov Brooks Koepka

    Love the way Phil has looked coming off of hernia surgery.  21st in his return tourney, and 14th last week.  I heard him interviewed after the tourney and he said he thought that his third tourney back would be where he hit his stride at 100%.  This is that tournament.  I look for him to tee off Thursday with the mindset that he can win this week.  Koepka missed the cut last week, and finished 41st here last year.  
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Podcast is up.  Jimitseff, let me know how we did with your challenge 

    Toooooons of picks I like this week.  Let's get to it!

    Brendan Steele ov Rickie Fowler

    In 2017, Brendan Steele has finished 20th, 6th, and 6th.  Fowler has finished 36th and a MC.  People are going to remember last years 2nd place finish from Fowler, but the three years before that he finished 46th, and had 2 missed cuts.  In fact, Steele has more top 10 finishes at this tourney than Fowler.

    Russell Knox ov Zach Johnson

    Knox has 8 straight top 20 finishes in a row, and continues to be the most underrated golfer at PGA events.  Zach has 2 missed cuts in the last 4 tourneys he's played in.  I said at the beginning of the year that I would play Knox a lot this year because I thought the books would give us a ton of value in H2H matchups, and this is one of them.

    Keegan Bradley ov Daniel Berger

    Keegan looks like he's heating up!!!  He really struggled with putting last year, but started to improve at the end of they year.  He finished last year 183rd in putting, but he's already up to 110th.  Ball striking has been fine, and Keegan has finished 25th, and 4th the last 2 tournaments.  Berger meanwhile has a 45th and a missed cut the last two tourneys.  On paper this looks like two golfers heading in opposite directions.

    Brian Harman ov Kevin Na

    This looks like a "Name vs. Numbers" matchup.  Kevin Na is well known, and has had past success on tour.  Brian Harman is a relative unknown to the general golf public, but here are the numbers.  Harman the last three tournaments has a 20th, 3rd, and a 9th.  Na has a 70th and a 36th.  And at this tournament he only has 1 top 20 finish.  Na is not a horse for this course, and is in way worse form.

    Webb Simpson ov Ryan Palmer

    Don't look now, but Ryan Palmer hasn't made a cut in 2017.  Simpson has finished better than Palmer the two tournaments they've played together in 2017.  And if we dig even deeper, here's my favorite stat for this play:  The last four Waste Management tournaments they've played together in, Webb is 4-0 head to head against Palmer.

    Phil Mickelson ov Brooks Koepka

    Love the way Phil has looked coming off of hernia surgery.  21st in his return tourney, and 14th last week.  I heard him interviewed after the tourney and he said he thought that his third tourney back would be where he hit his stride at 100%.  This is that tournament.  I look for him to tee off Thursday with the mindset that he can win this week.  Koepka missed the cut last week, and finished 41st here last year.  
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 8:56 PM ET #2

    BONUS PICK!!!!!!!!!!!!

    European Tour

    Graeme Mcdowell ov Tiger Woods 

    Tigers first shot last week off the first tee hit a tree and then a patron.  It didn't get much better from there.  He struggled to hit tee shots, and his irons in particular were dreadful.  At one point he ended up in a ravine.  I'm pretty sure he was so bad that he rubbed off on Day and DJ cause that's the only way I can explain what was going on with that threesome.  Short game looked solid, but if it takes you 4 shots to get to the green on a par 4, it doesn't matter how good your putting is.  
    Reply
    BONUS PICK!!!!!!!!!!!!

    European Tour

    Graeme Mcdowell ov Tiger Woods 

    Tigers first shot last week off the first tee hit a tree and then a patron.  It didn't get much better from there.  He struggled to hit tee shots, and his irons in particular were dreadful.  At one point he ended up in a ravine.  I'm pretty sure he was so bad that he rubbed off on Day and DJ cause that's the only way I can explain what was going on with that threesome.  Short game looked solid, but if it takes you 4 shots to get to the green on a par 4, it doesn't matter how good your putting is.  
     
    jmitseff
    jmitseff
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    Posts: 16283
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 9:16 PM ET #3

    Masters... Zach < Howell lll  (Tough for Zach to compete with all of the long hitters now)
    Us open Sned > Steele (not hot on steele)
    British open Ooooos > Knox (like both)
    Pga Rose meh....

    Oos should have won it in 2014 over watson at the british open
    Reply
    Masters... Zach < Howell lll  (Tough for Zach to compete with all of the long hitters now)
    Us open Sned > Steele (not hot on steele)
    British open Ooooos > Knox (like both)
    Pga Rose meh....

    Oos should have won it in 2014 over watson at the british open
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 9:20 PM ET #4

    I just looked at the matchups, and they released more matchups.

    Michael Kim ov Si Woo Kim

    This matchup doesn't make sense.  Si Woo has a bad back.  WD last week, has WD 2 out of the last 4 tourneys, throw in a MC, and a tied for second to last.  That's been his last 4 tourneys.  We talked about Michael Kim on the podcast as a great DraftKings value this week cause he has 1 missed cut in the last 7 tourneys he's played in, with 4 straight made cuts including 3 top 27 finishes.  
    Reply
    I just looked at the matchups, and they released more matchups.

    Michael Kim ov Si Woo Kim

    This matchup doesn't make sense.  Si Woo has a bad back.  WD last week, has WD 2 out of the last 4 tourneys, throw in a MC, and a tied for second to last.  That's been his last 4 tourneys.  We talked about Michael Kim on the podcast as a great DraftKings value this week cause he has 1 missed cut in the last 7 tourneys he's played in, with 4 straight made cuts including 3 top 27 finishes.  
     
    jmitseff
    jmitseff
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    Posts: 16283
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 9:25 PM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by jmitseff:

    Masters... Zach < Howell lll  (Tough for Zach to compete with all of the long hitters now)
    Us open Sned > Steele (not hot on steele)
    British open Ooooos > Knox (like both)
    Pga Rose meh....

    Oos should have won it in 2014 over watson at the british open


    Zach^
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jmitseff:

    Masters... Zach < Howell lll  (Tough for Zach to compete with all of the long hitters now)
    Us open Sned > Steele (not hot on steele)
    British open Ooooos > Knox (like both)
    Pga Rose meh....

    Oos should have won it in 2014 over watson at the british open


    Zach^
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 9:27 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by jmitseff:

    Masters... Zach < Howell lll  (Tough for Zach to compete with all of the long hitters now)
    Us open Sned > Steele (not hot on steele)
    British open Ooooos > Knox (like both)
    Pga Rose meh....

    Oos should have won it in 2014 over watson at the british open

    Meh on Rose?!?  Lol...I thought that would be an obvious pick for a major.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jmitseff:

    Masters... Zach < Howell lll  (Tough for Zach to compete with all of the long hitters now)
    Us open Sned > Steele (not hot on steele)
    British open Ooooos > Knox (like both)
    Pga Rose meh....

    Oos should have won it in 2014 over watson at the british open

    Meh on Rose?!?  Lol...I thought that would be an obvious pick for a major.
     
    jmitseff
    jmitseff
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    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 10:14 PM ET #7

    Solid pick.....I guess I meant meh on the value that he will have in that trny..
    Reply
    Solid pick.....I guess I meant meh on the value that he will have in that trny..
     
    LeRinkRat
    LeRinkRat
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    Posts: 85256
    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 10:35 PM ET #8

    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

    BONUS PICK!!!!!!!!!!!!

    European Tour

    Graeme Mcdowell ov Tiger Woods 

    Tigers first shot last week off the first tee hit a tree and then a patron.  It didn't get much better from there.  He struggled to hit tee shots, and his irons in particular were dreadful.  At one point he ended up in a ravine.  I'm pretty sure he was so bad that he rubbed off on Day and DJ cause that's the only way I can explain what was going on with that threesome.  Short game looked solid, but if it takes you 4 shots to get to the green on a par 4, it doesn't matter how good your putting is.  


    William-Hill has a rare non-major tourney prop this week Tiger Woods to MAKE the CUT NO is +110

    also chanced Chris Wood -110 over Tiger Woods tourney match play
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

    BONUS PICK!!!!!!!!!!!!

    European Tour

    Graeme Mcdowell ov Tiger Woods 

    Tigers first shot last week off the first tee hit a tree and then a patron.  It didn't get much better from there.  He struggled to hit tee shots, and his irons in particular were dreadful.  At one point he ended up in a ravine.  I'm pretty sure he was so bad that he rubbed off on Day and DJ cause that's the only way I can explain what was going on with that threesome.  Short game looked solid, but if it takes you 4 shots to get to the green on a par 4, it doesn't matter how good your putting is.  


    William-Hill has a rare non-major tourney prop this week Tiger Woods to MAKE the CUT NO is +110

    also chanced Chris Wood -110 over Tiger Woods tourney match play
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Jan. 31, 2017 - 10:53 PM ET #9

    I like it LeRink.
    Reply
    I like it LeRink.
     
    AJLightning
    AJLightning
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 9:26 AM ET #10

    YTD record?
    Reply
    YTD record?
     
    Wander Bread
    Wander Bread
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 10:56 AM ET #11

    Where is the podcast?
    Reply
    Where is the podcast?
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 11:04 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by Wander Bread:

    Where is the podcast?

    iTunes.  It's called The Golf Betting Guys


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander Bread:

    Where is the podcast?

    iTunes.  It's called The Golf Betting Guys


     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 11:08 AM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    YTD record?

    My record is yuge.  There's never been a record as good and as big as mine.  This last weekend I had 1.5 million winning picks, which is bigger and better than any other gambler that's ever been.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:

    YTD record?

    My record is yuge.  There's never been a record as good and as big as mine.  This last weekend I had 1.5 million winning picks, which is bigger and better than any other gambler that's ever been.
     
    AJLightning
    AJLightning
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 11:38 AM ET #14

    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


    My record is yuge.  There's never been a record as good and as big as mine.  This last weekend I had 1.5 million winning picks, which is bigger and better than any other gambler that's ever been.

    That really swayed me into following your picks.  
    Write-ups are great and all but it's the record that counts.
    Whats the point in posting if there's no record to back it up??


    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


    My record is yuge.  There's never been a record as good and as big as mine.  This last weekend I had 1.5 million winning picks, which is bigger and better than any other gambler that's ever been.

    That really swayed me into following your picks.  
    Write-ups are great and all but it's the record that counts.
    Whats the point in posting if there's no record to back it up??


     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 11:49 AM ET #15

    Sorry.  Bad attempt at humor on my part.

    Started the record over again at the first of the year so there's only 3 tourneys for ytd record.  11-8-1

    Reply
    Sorry.  Bad attempt at humor on my part.

    Started the record over again at the first of the year so there's only 3 tourneys for ytd record.  11-8-1

     
    ClubDirt
    ClubDirt
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 11:51 AM ET #16

    i like what we are doing this week.  we are going to take mitt down after that rahm debacle last week.  he has some dude named clay aiken winning the tournament.  i think that guy is some singer.  not sure what mitt is thinking there. 


    also, why do they have the two kims matched up against each other.  not only is it confusing for the novices we are trying to teach how to bet golf, it's racist.  that leads me to my weekly betting advice.  be careful betting on asians.  there just isn't enough room in these asian countries for golf courses.  do you see trump with a golf course in japan?  where would he put it.  not only does that make japan a more likely target for a nuclear bomb since trump wouldn't be worried about impacting his business interests, it shows that these guys just don't have the opportunity to practice golf like people from bigger countries.  all they have are those 5 story driving ranges.  that's not going to be good enough to win the waste management tournament.  this doesn't apply to the chinese.  they're probably pretty good. 

    that's enough for this week.  if you can't win with this, you shouldn't be betting this sport.  
    Reply
    i like what we are doing this week.  we are going to take mitt down after that rahm debacle last week.  he has some dude named clay aiken winning the tournament.  i think that guy is some singer.  not sure what mitt is thinking there. 


    also, why do they have the two kims matched up against each other.  not only is it confusing for the novices we are trying to teach how to bet golf, it's racist.  that leads me to my weekly betting advice.  be careful betting on asians.  there just isn't enough room in these asian countries for golf courses.  do you see trump with a golf course in japan?  where would he put it.  not only does that make japan a more likely target for a nuclear bomb since trump wouldn't be worried about impacting his business interests, it shows that these guys just don't have the opportunity to practice golf like people from bigger countries.  all they have are those 5 story driving ranges.  that's not going to be good enough to win the waste management tournament.  this doesn't apply to the chinese.  they're probably pretty good. 

    that's enough for this week.  if you can't win with this, you shouldn't be betting this sport.  
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 11:51 AM ET #17

    I have 2016 record at home.  I'll post that later today.
    Reply
    I have 2016 record at home.  I'll post that later today.
     
    AJLightning
    AJLightning
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    Posts: 13879
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 12:35 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

    Sorry.  Bad attempt at humor on my part.

    Started the record over again at the first of the year so there's only 3 tourneys for ytd record.  11-8-1



    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

    Sorry.  Bad attempt at humor on my part.

    Started the record over again at the first of the year so there's only 3 tourneys for ytd record.  11-8-1



     
    AJLightning
    AJLightning
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    Posts: 13879
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 12:39 PM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i like what we are doing this week.  we are going to take mitt down after that rahm debacle last week.  he has some dude named clay aiken winning the tournament.  i think that guy is some singer.  not sure what mitt is thinking there. 


    also, why do they have the two kims matched up against each other.  not only is it confusing for the novices we are trying to teach how to bet golf, it's racist.  that leads me to my weekly betting advice.  be careful betting on asians.  there just isn't enough room in these asian countries for golf courses.  do you see trump with a golf course in japan?  where would he put it.  not only does that make japan a more likely target for a nuclear bomb since trump wouldn't be worried about impacting his business interests, it shows that these guys just don't have the opportunity to practice golf like people from bigger countries.  all they have are those 5 story driving ranges.  that's not going to be good enough to win the waste management tournament.  this doesn't apply to the chinese.  they're probably pretty good. 

    that's enough for this week.  if you can't win with this, you shouldn't be betting this sport.  

    Just to piggy back on your Asian comment....Asian's are very good at course management and on shot makers course's. Why you ask?
    Because your right, the courses are smaller and tighter and thats the way they grew up playing. You put them on a tree lined, tight, classical course and they feel at home!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i like what we are doing this week.  we are going to take mitt down after that rahm debacle last week.  he has some dude named clay aiken winning the tournament.  i think that guy is some singer.  not sure what mitt is thinking there. 


    also, why do they have the two kims matched up against each other.  not only is it confusing for the novices we are trying to teach how to bet golf, it's racist.  that leads me to my weekly betting advice.  be careful betting on asians.  there just isn't enough room in these asian countries for golf courses.  do you see trump with a golf course in japan?  where would he put it.  not only does that make japan a more likely target for a nuclear bomb since trump wouldn't be worried about impacting his business interests, it shows that these guys just don't have the opportunity to practice golf like people from bigger countries.  all they have are those 5 story driving ranges.  that's not going to be good enough to win the waste management tournament.  this doesn't apply to the chinese.  they're probably pretty good. 

    that's enough for this week.  if you can't win with this, you shouldn't be betting this sport.  

    Just to piggy back on your Asian comment....Asian's are very good at course management and on shot makers course's. Why you ask?
    Because your right, the courses are smaller and tighter and thats the way they grew up playing. You put them on a tree lined, tight, classical course and they feel at home!
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Participation Meter
    Joined: Aug, 2011
    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 1:58 PM ET #20

    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i like what we are doing this week.  we are going to take mitt down after that rahm debacle last week.  he has some dude named clay aiken winning the tournament.  i think that guy is some singer.  not sure what mitt is thinking there. 


    also, why do they have the two kims matched up against each other.  not only is it confusing for the novices we are trying to teach how to bet golf, it's racist.  that leads me to my weekly betting advice.  be careful betting on asians.  there just isn't enough room in these asian countries for golf courses.  do you see trump with a golf course in japan?  where would he put it.  not only does that make japan a more likely target for a nuclear bomb since trump wouldn't be worried about impacting his business interests, it shows that these guys just don't have the opportunity to practice golf like people from bigger countries.  all they have are those 5 story driving ranges.  that's not going to be good enough to win the waste management tournament.  this doesn't apply to the chinese.  they're probably pretty good. 

    that's enough for this week.  if you can't win with this, you shouldn't be betting this sport.  

    Wise words from one of the best in the biz.  Great work again ClubDirt.  Proud to have you part of the team.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

    i like what we are doing this week.  we are going to take mitt down after that rahm debacle last week.  he has some dude named clay aiken winning the tournament.  i think that guy is some singer.  not sure what mitt is thinking there. 


    also, why do they have the two kims matched up against each other.  not only is it confusing for the novices we are trying to teach how to bet golf, it's racist.  that leads me to my weekly betting advice.  be careful betting on asians.  there just isn't enough room in these asian countries for golf courses.  do you see trump with a golf course in japan?  where would he put it.  not only does that make japan a more likely target for a nuclear bomb since trump wouldn't be worried about impacting his business interests, it shows that these guys just don't have the opportunity to practice golf like people from bigger countries.  all they have are those 5 story driving ranges.  that's not going to be good enough to win the waste management tournament.  this doesn't apply to the chinese.  they're probably pretty good. 

    that's enough for this week.  if you can't win with this, you shouldn't be betting this sport.  

    Wise words from one of the best in the biz.  Great work again ClubDirt.  Proud to have you part of the team.  
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 2:02 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:


    That really swayed me into following your picks.  
    Write-ups are great and all but it's the record that counts.
    Whats the point in posting if there's no record to back it up??



    I started keeping records of my picks last year the week we started the podcast, which was May 19.  Record from there to end of 2016 was 67-48.  
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by AJLightning:


    That really swayed me into following your picks.  
    Write-ups are great and all but it's the record that counts.
    Whats the point in posting if there's no record to back it up??



    I started keeping records of my picks last year the week we started the podcast, which was May 19.  Record from there to end of 2016 was 67-48.  
     
    AJLightning
    AJLightning
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    Posts: 13879
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 2:15 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


    I started keeping records of my picks last year the week we started the podcast, which was May 19.  Record from there to end of 2016 was 67-48.  

    Solid man....keep it up!

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


    I started keeping records of my picks last year the week we started the podcast, which was May 19.  Record from there to end of 2016 was 67-48.  

    Solid man....keep it up!

     
    ClubDirt
    ClubDirt
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    Joined: May, 2003
    Posts: 28196
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 2:22 PM ET #23




    i guess i should add, since this is the waste management tournament, it's likely rigged and we should probably focus on one of the italians to win it.  you guys get it. 
    Reply



    i guess i should add, since this is the waste management tournament, it's likely rigged and we should probably focus on one of the italians to win it.  you guys get it. 
     
    AJLightning
    AJLightning
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    Joined: Nov, 2008
    Posts: 13879
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 2:31 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:




    i guess i should add, since this is the waste management tournament, it's likely rigged and we should probably focus on one of the italians to win it.  you guys get it. 

    HAHA...ya we know cousin Vito down at the sanitation plant!

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:




    i guess i should add, since this is the waste management tournament, it's likely rigged and we should probably focus on one of the italians to win it.  you guys get it. 

    HAHA...ya we know cousin Vito down at the sanitation plant!

     
     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posts: 4739
    Posted: Feb. 1, 2017 - 10:26 PM ET #25

    5Dimes posted a play 

    Brendan Steel -1/2 -141 ov Si Woo Kim First Round

    It's a lot of juice, but I'm playing it.


    Reply
    5Dimes posted a play 

    Brendan Steel -1/2 -141 ov Si Woo Kim First Round

    It's a lot of juice, but I'm playing it.


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