Jordan Spieth ov Rory McIlroy
Spieth hasn’t been fantastic, but he hasn’t been terrible. Top 20 finishes in his last 3 tournaments, and he likes this course. 18th, 1st, 20th, 7th in the 4 times he’s played this course. Rory on the other hand hasn’t played this tournament ever, and I think he’s playing because he needs to try and get his game on track for the Masters, but he hasn’t been great recently. 59th, 20th, Missed cut the last 3 tournaments he’s played in. This play has a lot of juice, but I’m not scared.
Paul Casey ov Justin Rose
We said last week that his 49th place finish was the outlier, and we were right. He battled back and finished 12th, and that was way better than Justin Rose. Not sure what’s going on with Rose, but he hasn’t played in a while, and last week looked very rusty. Neither of these guys have played here in the last couple years, so I’m not too concerned with course history. The only 2 tournaments these guys have played in together Casey has finished ahead of Rose by quite a bit.
Adam Hadwin ov Tiger Woods
Guess who won this tournament last year and has finished 6th, and 9th in his last 2 tournaments, and hasn’t missed the cut in 2018? Spoiler…it’s not Tiger Woods. It’s Adam Hadwin who has to be one of the most underrated guys on tour right now. Tiger hasn’t played this tournament…ever. Look I get the Tiger hype, he looked great last tournament, but that was a course he loved and knew well. Hadwin is playing better than Tiger, knows this course better than Tiger…I’ll take the better golfer right now over the big name. Don’t fall into the Tiger trap.
Steve Stricker ov Patrick Reed
Last week I said I was sick of not making money betting against Patrick Reed, we made money last week…I’m going to do it again, this time with Steve Stricker who’s coming off a win on the Champions Tour. Last week was a no cut tournament, and it’s a good thing it was for Patrick Reed. If it was a cut tournament, he would’ve missed the cut last week and that would’ve made 3 missed cuts in a row for him. It’s tough to handicap Steve Stricker, but he’s played in 2 tournaments on tour this year and finished 31st and 26th. He missed the cut here last year, but finished 7th the year before, and has played here many times including 3 top 10s in a row before the missed cut last year. Patrick Reed has played here 4 times, and not surprisingly, has inconsistent finishes with a 2nd, 7th, 38th and a missed cut.
Nick Watney ov JB Holmes
Never thought I’d be betting on Nick Watney this year, but fuck it!!! Numbers don’t lie. Since JB Holmes random 4th place finish he’s missed the cut twice, finished 60th and 49th. Crazy crazy stat. Nick Watney hasn’t missed the cut in 2018. In fact, he’s finished ahead of JB Holmes in the last 3 tournaments they’ve played in, and believe it or not…Watney finished 14th here last year!!! In fact…Nick Watney has never missed the cut here…ever, and has 5 top 25 finishes in the last 10 times he’s played here.
Small Play
Ollie Shenanigans ov Bill Haas
Here we go again betting against guys who have been in a recent tragedy. Ollie isn’t great…but Bill Haas was in a big car crash a couple weeks ago and the guy in the car next to him died. I’m not going to go over golf stats in this one.
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