Valspar picks

Hahn over Keegan

Those look good to me!   

I commend your thinking here but you can't base 2nd round performance off of four different courses. That's four different tracks, four different set-ups, four different days, four different mind sets, four different beds, etc....it's more current form with Lee. 

IMHO   

lee with the juicy -2 and won my bet as well. Thanks for your input. was cash with the putter for par just needs more tighter birdie looks and he would be killing it. but his distance off the tee def isnt one of his strength but can scramble like crazy

I was hoping to have a good discussion after this play based on the outcome...and then they tie.  

I do look at current form the most with my picks.  It just seems to point me in the right direction.  Obviously, there's no right or wrong way to do it, but it's just the handicapping style that I prefer and that I have the most success with.  There are some bettors out there that can predict outcome based on a golfers style and the course, but I am not one of those bettors.  

One night me and my buddies got absolutely sh*tfaced.  We decided it would be a good idea to go to an arcade and then to a putt putt course.  At one point my buddy tried to hang on the windmill to see if it would hold him up, and he ripped the blade off, and fell down with it on top of him.  On another occasion, I hit a ball into the blue dyed water, and went in after it cause I was so drunk I didn't think I could get another ball from the front desk.  My other friend tried to pick his ball out of one of the holes, and instead face planted in front of a family of 4, and then the parents then rushed them off the course, and reported us to the managers.

Here's my point....

That day, I putted better than Henrik Stenson did today.

well...I do

jw11

It's kinda like dancing...

Does your arm hurt patting yourself on the back?

im pretty similar i need to be relaxed and one with the green

lmao seems like happy gilmore sequel or something. have a good weekendbro

I'm kidding.  Nice picks.  I just can't seem to find a groove betting 3rd and 4th rounds.  Always envious of your guys picks for the later rounds cause I don't have any idea what to look for.  What is your criteria for betting 3rd and 4th rounds?  

What do you think ov Charl +160 ov Stenson 4th round?  Stenson had that amazing 1st round and now can't putt.  Charl seems to be figuring the course out as the tourney goes on...

Holy Hell i hit a 4th round pick.  Miracles do happen.

I was beginning to think your one of those D-bags that can't tell you nice shot even though you just hit one 180 yds to two feet!  

Honestly, I just look at the lines and see what they shot the day before and try to figure out what the lines maker is trying to do. Some just jump out to me right away and the line looks silly. (like Hahn over Keegan 2nd round).... Hard to explain my thought process really.

Andy

Congrats on your tourney picks.  You've been very sharp.

I've been doing very well on my 3rd and 4th round head to heads.

Much better than my tourney picks, although I feel; like I've had some bad luck on those and will keep at it.

With regard to your inquiry into betting 3rd and 4th rounds,

I look at this week's GIR (rounds 1 and 2), and driving accuracy vs. Strokes gained putting.

I find the guys putting great and scrambling well must come down to earth and when they are matched up against consistent guys, hitting GIRs at high%, that is an edge.

Also when it comes to the weekend I find that the better players can keep it up (look at OWGR and average score per round) whereas the lesser players again come to earth, ie. JJ Henry yesterday.

Finally, when betting sundays, I look at avg score per 4th round this year.

But more than that, after watching tons of golf, I think I have a good feel for the guys who finish and the guys who choke. I file this away in my mind.

Some guys may have ok final round scoring average but if they are in contention, they don't get to the finish line, ie. Kuchar, Delaet McGirt  So final round scoring can be misleading, ie. Delaet yesterday played great.  Had he been in contention, I doubt that would've happened.

Lastly but not insignificantly, I strongly consider past history at this course in prior years tourneys.  If a guy has played well here before, I look for that to continue.  If a guy doesn't play well at this course, maybe the course just doesn't fit their eye, ie. Harmon and Stallings last week

Good luck

Lol...I realized my posts to you kind of looked like that.  It's easy to post something that you think means one thing, but comes across completely different when posted.

I'm not a D-Bag...I'm actually a big fan of yours.  I always like your picks because they are picks that don't occur to me so I'm interested in why you like them.  The more knowledge we all have, the better we can all be.  (Bro Hug)

Great stuff, man.  Thanks!