Valero picks

Question

Podcast is not up as my partner was with his Mom who was in the hospital today. We'll record it tomorrow, but I'll put the picks up now so everyone can get them in early. Even if you don't listen to the podcast, please download it. Helps our status on iTunes. Thanks!

Ian Poulter ov Daniel Summerhays

Here’s what’s not in any stats you’ll find. Ian Poulter needs to make $31,000 this week to keep his PGA tour card. Last week he needed a good finish, and he finished 11th…this week I expect him to be the most focused golfer on the course as he has the most to play for. Summerhays has pretty incredible tourney history here as he’s finished 13th, 7th, 4th, and 2nd the last 4 years, but he’s not in nearly as good as form as he was then. His last 8 tournaments, he’s got 3 missed cuts, and every finish outside the top 45. I like Poulter to be playing hard in every round fighting for a top 10 finish.

Danny Lee ov Jaime Lovemark (love)

After a terrible start to the year, Danny Lee is playing really good, and if you can identify these guys that weren’t playing good, and start to heat up, you can get some juicy matchups, and this is one of them. Danny Lee had 4 missed cuts and a WD in a row, but after the Honda Classic, he has 5 straight made cuts including 3 top 25’s. The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Danny Lee has finished ahead of Lovemark.

JT Poston ov Jason Kokrak (love)

Poston may be a new guy on tour, but he’s just better than Kokrak right now. Poston hasn’t missed the cut since the Pebble Beach Pro Am, and since that tournament in 5 tournaments, he’s a combined 29 shots under par. In that same period of time, Kokrak’s combined score in 5 tournaments is 7 shots over par. The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Poston has finished ahead of Kokrak. Poston hasn’t played this tournament before, but Kokrak missed the cut here last year.

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Luke Donald ov Patrick Reed

At first glance, it would seem Patrick Reed would be the obvious play, but he’s the worse golfer right now. Last year, Reed finished second at this tournament, but he had 5 made cuts previous to that including 3 top 10 finishes. This year he has 2 straight missed cuts, and no finishes better than 38th in the 4 tournaments before that. Luke Donald hasn’t been fantastic, but he has a 2nd place last week, only has one missed cut in his last 6 tournaments, and that was over a month ago, and Luke finished 13th here last year.

Adam Hadwin ov Billy Horschel (love)

Betting against Billly Horschel is dangerous, cause he’s inconsistent, and it’s even more dangerous cause he seems to like this tournament. He’s finished 4th, 3rd, missed cut and 3rd the last 4 tourneys here. But I look at this year, and Hadwin has been better and more consistent. In fact, the last 6 tournaments they’ve played in together, Hadwin has finished ahead of Horschel in every tournament.

Ryan Moore ov Jimmy Walker

I just really like what I’m seeing from Ryan Moore right now. The one thing he’s showing this year that he’s been missing in years past is consistency. Five straight top 30 finishes including a really solid 9th place finish at The Masters. Walker has been good this year, but Moore has finished ahead of Walker the last 2 tourneys they’ve played in, and Walker missed the cut here last year.

alangrrbs · Answer

Podcast is not up as my partner was with his Mom who was in the hospital today. We'll record it tomorrow, but I'll put the picks up now so everyone can get them in early. Even if you don't listen to the podcast, please download it. Helps our status on iTunes. Thanks!

Ian Poulter ov Daniel Summerhays

Here’s what’s not in any stats you’ll find. Ian Poulter needs to make $31,000 this week to keep his PGA tour card. Last week he needed a good finish, and he finished 11th…this week I expect him to be the most focused golfer on the course as he has the most to play for. Summerhays has pretty incredible tourney history here as he’s finished 13th, 7th, 4th, and 2nd the last 4 years, but he’s not in nearly as good as form as he was then. His last 8 tournaments, he’s got 3 missed cuts, and every finish outside the top 45. I like Poulter to be playing hard in every round fighting for a top 10 finish.

Danny Lee ov Jaime Lovemark (love)

After a terrible start to the year, Danny Lee is playing really good, and if you can identify these guys that weren’t playing good, and start to heat up, you can get some juicy matchups, and this is one of them. Danny Lee had 4 missed cuts and a WD in a row, but after the Honda Classic, he has 5 straight made cuts including 3 top 25’s. The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Danny Lee has finished ahead of Lovemark.

JT Poston ov Jason Kokrak (love)

Poston may be a new guy on tour, but he’s just better than Kokrak right now. Poston hasn’t missed the cut since the Pebble Beach Pro Am, and since that tournament in 5 tournaments, he’s a combined 29 shots under par. In that same period of time, Kokrak’s combined score in 5 tournaments is 7 shots over par. The last 3 tournaments they’ve played in together, Poston has finished ahead of Kokrak. Poston hasn’t played this tournament before, but Kokrak missed the cut here last year.

BOVADA SPECIFIC PICKS

Luke Donald ov Patrick Reed

At first glance, it would seem Patrick Reed would be the obvious play, but he’s the worse golfer right now. Last year, Reed finished second at this tournament, but he had 5 made cuts previous to that including 3 top 10 finishes. This year he has 2 straight missed cuts, and no finishes better than 38th in the 4 tournaments before that. Luke Donald hasn’t been fantastic, but he has a 2nd place last week, only has one missed cut in his last 6 tournaments, and that was over a month ago, and Luke finished 13th here last year.

Adam Hadwin ov Billy Horschel (love)

Betting against Billly Horschel is dangerous, cause he’s inconsistent, and it’s even more dangerous cause he seems to like this tournament. He’s finished 4th, 3rd, missed cut and 3rd the last 4 tourneys here. But I look at this year, and Hadwin has been better and more consistent. In fact, the last 6 tournaments they’ve played in together, Hadwin has finished ahead of Horschel in every tournament.

Ryan Moore ov Jimmy Walker

I just really like what I’m seeing from Ryan Moore right now. The one thing he’s showing this year that he’s been missing in years past is consistency. Five straight top 30 finishes including a really solid 9th place finish at The Masters. Walker has been good this year, but Moore has finished ahead of Walker the last 2 tourneys they’ve played in, and Walker missed the cut here last year.

alangrrbs · Answer

Gonna make a little play on...Rafael Campos ov Stewart CinkCan&#x27;t argue with the results here from Campos...his three starts this year on the PGA tour he&#x27;s finished 10th, 7th, and 32nd.  Two of those tournaments he&#x27;s finished better than Cink.  Stewart missed the cut last week, and he doesn&#x27;t have any top 20 finishes in the last few months, so I like the upside on Campos here.

LeRinkRat · Answer

got a "Euro Trash" tourney matchplay for you this week @ Shenzhen China, alangrrbs

Bernd Wiesberger -105 over Bubba Watson

"Weeze the Cheese" made the cut @ Masters. has not missed a cut his last 14 tourneys and has 7 top 5 finishes his last 13. he rarely "blows up"

Bubba has been "Mr Missed Cut" (or WD) 4 of his last 6 tourneys including the Masters. I think he is going to China for "appearance money"

RBTrojan · Answer

Looks really good Andy. Love the Poston vs Kokrak play. He has been fading so bad at the end of tournaments lately and Poston is playing the best pro golf of his young career... I got this match up at +105 on my book.

Rat I like your idea of fading Bubba this week. My book has Fleetwood vs Watson with Fleetwood being -125... Hoping we are right about Bubba. Tommy has been playing really well this year...

alangrrbs · Answer

Interesting on Bubba.  Wonder why he&#x27;s playing that tournament?

LeRinkRat · Answer

Bubba has played well @ Genzon before. 8th last year [-10]  and T-29th [-5] in 2015 BUT, unlike the PGA, I think players can accept "appearance money" on the Euro Tour and the ChiComs probably "bought him"speaking of Tommy Fleetwood, he got 3rd in @ Genzon  2015 [-11] one shot behind "A Fat Barn Rat" (WON playoff) and the ChiCom Haotoug Li. Li almost always plays well on his "home turf" courses. WON @ Beijing last year [-22] with a sizzeling [-8] last round

alangrrbs · Answer

Graeme McDowell ov Robert Streb -1/2 First Round

alangrrbs · Answer

Danny Lee -1/2 ov Reteif Goosen

LeRinkRat · Answer

GOOD GOD will I EVER get a match play bet RIGHT ??? God Damn Bubba decides to PLAY GOLF this week!!! [-6] his 1st round @ Shenzhen China

alangrrbs · Answer

Looooong tourney Rat.  Don&#x27;t panic.

sacker17 · Answer

AndyI&#x27;m also on Lee v Goosen Round 1I laid -140 no strokes. I&#x27;d pretty much bet anyone against Goosen who has 8 out of 9 MC Somehow got a 2nd place in Puerto Rico though 2 weeks ago

sacker17 · Answer

AndyGoing with you on 1st round McDowell v Streb. Streb not playing well while McDowell on the up latelyI&#x27;m gonna add 1st round An -115 v CampbellAn hasn&#x27;t had a MC all year while Campbell has MC in 4 of last 8Checking back to 2011 Campbell has played 16 rounds here and only broken 71 once!Caveat is that An has never played this event but he is just a better class player than Campbell

sacker17 · Answer

Regarding An v CampbellOWGR An 59. Campbell 182Cuts made this year An 10 of 10. Campbell&#x27;s 11 of 15An the better player

alangrrbs · Answer

GL boys.

sacker17 · Answer

An playing like crap at &#x2B;1(13).  Hitting 61.54% GIR and only 54.55% fairwaysCampbell playing lights out (92.31% GIR and 82.81% fairways) but just -1(13).Think he has missed 1 GIR.Following pgatour.com and getting sick each hole as I see Campbell hitting every fairway and green.  Campbell really isn&#x27;t this good.  Still a small chance though at down 2 strokes with 5 left.

sacker17 · Answer

An sucked and lost by 1.Truth is he was never close.Campbell was much better today.Campbell putted like crap -1.92 strokes gained putting vs &#x2B;.51 for AnCampbell hit 83% GIR v 67% An.Only a Campbell penalty stroke on 18 leading to his only bogey of the day made it a 1 stroke loss.  Wasn&#x27;t that close really.For a guy who is 59 OWGR and 10 for 10 in cuts made this year to shoot over par and give me the loss is very disheartening.

AJLightning · Answer

Sorry to clog up your thread but I had to post this somewhere...Do we have a Bob Estes sighting on the leaderboard??

alangrrbs · Answer

Lol.  Please let me know where I can bet against Bob Estes tomorrow...

alangrrbs · Answer

Gotta go with McDowell ov Streb 2nd round

RBTrojan · Answer

N Taylor -125 vs DA Points for me in the second round

Looking at the stat tracker and how they played overall in round 1, I will take a shot here. Taylor hit it longer, straighter, more gir, but lost a bit to DA in the strokes gained putting. DA only made 3 birdies (one of which was a 49 foot bomb on a par 3) compared to 5 by Taylor. Worth the gamble in this spot in my opinion.

sacker17 · Answer

RB nice call on Taylor v Points.

Wish I had seen your post bc I didn't have time to do the research and your analysis is exactly what I look for.

I always feel that the GIR is importantand that the Stokes gained putting will tend to even out.

Goosen sucks but was +3 strokes gained putting in round 1.

Today Goosen was -0.43. More than 2.5 strokes worse and it showed with his +4 in round 2. Funny thing is Danny Lee is so bad (also +4) that it was a push.

Too bad Lee MC because I'd bet the farm against him. He is awful! Today he was 35% driving accuracy/61% GIR/-1.66 putting

LeRinkRat · Answer

"Wheeze the Cheeze" gonna SAVE my AZZ ??? [-5] followed by [-7] for tourney [-12] and a 4 shot lead over Bubba going to Saturday (Friday night) BUT like alangrrbs said "LONG tourney". hopefully Wheeze does NOT do a Morrison @ Trophee Hassan 3rd round

RBTrojan · Answer

Thanks Sacker too bad you didnt get a bet down on that second round play...

I like a couple of 3rd round match ups...

Ricky Barnes +100 vs Freddie Jacobson: I am going with my gut on this one. I'm basing this play on the fact that Jacobson is -4 on par 3's this week so far. That is a pretty unusual anomaly. Needless to say, both of these guys have really struggled lately so anything can happen.

Shelton -120 vs Estes: Basing this play strictly due to the age factor. Estes is 51 years old and will fade sometime this weekend. He has not made a birdie yet on a par 5 this week. I dont know much about Shelton. Strictly a fade of Estes.

Good luck guys!

sacker17 · Answer

RB like your thinking on 51 year old Estes although I too don&#x27;t know Shelton. As for Barnes I can never bet on him, especially on a weekend. I find he chokes on weekends. Seems his best rounds are usually Thursday or Friday. Anyways good luck

sacker17 · Answer

RB I just couldn&#x27;t pull the trigger on Estes or Shelton.If anything I might lean Estes as the other guy is young and has made all of $8k this year and $49k lifetime.he is playing for real money this weekend and may not handle the pressure.Estes has been steady with only 1 bogey in 2 rounds.  Both are not good players

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