Grace -120 v Fowler **BEST BET**
Been betting against Fowler and winning every week so gonna ride the train
until it stops
Grace has been trending up anyway after a bad stretch having made 4/5 cuts with a win. H
In Fowler's last 7 events he has just 1 finish better than 53 with 3 MC
At this event Fowler has played 1x last year and was T17 but his game has fallen apart since then.
Grace hasn't last played here last 2 years but last 3x before that was
2018 10
2017 9
2016. 30
Spieth +115 v Finau
Good value here
Spieth playing well and played well here in the past
Spieth last 6x here finished 9/48/4/15/3/4
Finau can be good but last 2 events he was knocked out early in the match play and was MC prior start
At this event Finau played 3x and only 1 good effort finishing 61/3/68
Kirk +105 v Si Woo Kim
Kirk after struggling with alcohol addiction has found peace and his game. Very steady with a good recent record and a good record here. Last 5 years he has played here every year and has 3 Top 13s but 2 MC and last 4 events recently he has 3x Top 25
Meanwhile Kim is all or nothing. When good he is very good and when he is t he is usually bad and up the track. Last 7 events he has 6x finished 50 or worse but the 1x he wasn't he finished T9 and 8 starts back he won. So last 8 2 top 9 and 6 lousy.
At this event Kim played 4x and was 4th here last year and before that 45/22/MC
I think it's a percentage play getting odds (+105). If Kim comes to play he can be Top 10 but likely he won't while Kirk is likely to be Top 25
Nesmith -120 v Hoge
Just think Nesmith is the better player.
Nesmith was playing pretty well just before Florida swing starting with Farmers T48
Waste Mngmnt T7
AT&T Pebble T16
Genesis T20
Then Florida swing and
MC Arnold Palmer
MC Players
but got back on track at Honda T36
Nesmith has never played here while Hoge has played here 5x with 3 MC. Last 5 years here Hoge
MC/MC/53/9/MC
Hoge last 9 events on tour has 6 MC and 2 Top22
Nesmith last 9 events has 4 MC but 3 Top 20
Strokes gained tee to green Nesmith better at +.98 to Hoge +.21
Nesmith is #2 on entire tour in Greens in Regulation at 73.38% to Hoge #155 at 64.64
Nesmith scoring avg slightly better at 70.78 to Hoge 70.94
Hoge slightly better around the green and putting but nothing special.
Funny thing is and I dont know how but Hoge OWGR is 110 to Nesmith 148
Just think Nesmith is the better player
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