Pumped for the US Open this week which will be held at the historic Oakmont Country Club, which has always prided itself on being among the most difficult golf courses in the world. Oakmont is an incredibly unique setup that has hosted 9 US opens since 1927. Oakmont is located in western Pennsylvania and is a par 70 measuring out at 7,372 yards. This is a pretty long golf course for a par 70, but in my opinion still allows shorter players to compete based on the architecture and past results. This golf course features gigantic, lightening fast undulating green complexes, extremely thick 5 inch rough, penile bunkers that are often very deep, and uneven lies along the fairways all of which will give these players problems. Love watching these guys in difficult scoring conditions and this should be as difficult as it gets. I will detail below what I think is the best skill set to separate at Oakmont.
You can certainly separate on this golf course by being long off the tee, but if your consistently missing fairways you’re going to have problems regardless of how long you are. This rough and fairway bunkers will absolutely penalize these players as we typically see at US Opens. It’s also important to note that there will not be graduated rough here, so players that just barely miss the fairway will still be in that 5 inch luscious rough. Ultimately the players that hit the most fairways will have the biggest edge, and I am willing to sacrifice distance for accuracy at this venue. Off the tee will be super important this week so I will definitely be looking at players’ recent strokes gained off the tee and total driving. I will have an increased emphasis on off the tee play this week due to the importance of hitting fairways at this venue.
This is an interesting handicap in terms of approach play. These are extremely large green complexes with severe contours that should play very firm and fast. Contrary to most major championship venues, there is not a ton of long irons and wedge play appears to be of more importance this week. The par 5s are also extremely long leading to a lot of lay ups with wedges in. This decreases the importance of approach play a bit in my opinion as most of these players are good with their wedges, but with how penile the green side areas and bunkers are the best approach players will have an edge. I’ll be looking for solid long term wedge players and in form overall approach players. There is also a linksy aspect to this golf course due to the firmness and seemless transitions from fairways to greens, there will be opportunities to hit low, running shots and I think players that have performed well in open championships is an intriguing angle as this course does have some characteristics of a links course.
The biggest challenge of this golf course and the most defining feature are these complex green surfaces. I mentioned these greens are big, probably the biggest greens that I can remember seeing on the pga tour ever. This effectively decreases the importance of around the green play in exchange for 3 putt avoidance. The big, undulating surfaces will result in a ton of 30+ foot putts for these players, the best lag putters in this field will be at a much bigger advantage this week than a typical pga tour stop. I will be emphasizing 3 putt avoidance in my modeling. These greens are also going to be about as quick as we see on tour. I’ll be taking a peek at players who perform well on fast greens as well.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Pumped for the US Open this week which will be held at the historic Oakmont Country Club, which has always prided itself on being among the most difficult golf courses in the world. Oakmont is an incredibly unique setup that has hosted 9 US opens since 1927. Oakmont is located in western Pennsylvania and is a par 70 measuring out at 7,372 yards. This is a pretty long golf course for a par 70, but in my opinion still allows shorter players to compete based on the architecture and past results. This golf course features gigantic, lightening fast undulating green complexes, extremely thick 5 inch rough, penile bunkers that are often very deep, and uneven lies along the fairways all of which will give these players problems. Love watching these guys in difficult scoring conditions and this should be as difficult as it gets. I will detail below what I think is the best skill set to separate at Oakmont.
You can certainly separate on this golf course by being long off the tee, but if your consistently missing fairways you’re going to have problems regardless of how long you are. This rough and fairway bunkers will absolutely penalize these players as we typically see at US Opens. It’s also important to note that there will not be graduated rough here, so players that just barely miss the fairway will still be in that 5 inch luscious rough. Ultimately the players that hit the most fairways will have the biggest edge, and I am willing to sacrifice distance for accuracy at this venue. Off the tee will be super important this week so I will definitely be looking at players’ recent strokes gained off the tee and total driving. I will have an increased emphasis on off the tee play this week due to the importance of hitting fairways at this venue.
This is an interesting handicap in terms of approach play. These are extremely large green complexes with severe contours that should play very firm and fast. Contrary to most major championship venues, there is not a ton of long irons and wedge play appears to be of more importance this week. The par 5s are also extremely long leading to a lot of lay ups with wedges in. This decreases the importance of approach play a bit in my opinion as most of these players are good with their wedges, but with how penile the green side areas and bunkers are the best approach players will have an edge. I’ll be looking for solid long term wedge players and in form overall approach players. There is also a linksy aspect to this golf course due to the firmness and seemless transitions from fairways to greens, there will be opportunities to hit low, running shots and I think players that have performed well in open championships is an intriguing angle as this course does have some characteristics of a links course.
The biggest challenge of this golf course and the most defining feature are these complex green surfaces. I mentioned these greens are big, probably the biggest greens that I can remember seeing on the pga tour ever. This effectively decreases the importance of around the green play in exchange for 3 putt avoidance. The big, undulating surfaces will result in a ton of 30+ foot putts for these players, the best lag putters in this field will be at a much bigger advantage this week than a typical pga tour stop. I will be emphasizing 3 putt avoidance in my modeling. These greens are also going to be about as quick as we see on tour. I’ll be taking a peek at players who perform well on fast greens as well.
While this course is incredibly unique and frankly pretty difficult to find courses that stack up to it, a couple comp courses that have similar features include Muirfield village and winged foot. I think looking at past success on links courses is an interesting angle as well. This tournament will likely be won close to even par so I do prefer players that have had past success in difficult scoring conditions. Just a couple trends I found interesting.. 12 of the last 16 US Open winners had no previous major wins and 9 of the last 10 US open winners had posted a top 10 in at least one of the previous two majors. I have not made any final decisions in terms of betting but ultimately am eyeing players that are in form total drivers of the ball, good wedge players and in form on approach, good lag putters, and players that have had success on comp courses and difficult scoring conditions. Will be back to update
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Continued…
While this course is incredibly unique and frankly pretty difficult to find courses that stack up to it, a couple comp courses that have similar features include Muirfield village and winged foot. I think looking at past success on links courses is an interesting angle as well. This tournament will likely be won close to even par so I do prefer players that have had past success in difficult scoring conditions. Just a couple trends I found interesting.. 12 of the last 16 US Open winners had no previous major wins and 9 of the last 10 US open winners had posted a top 10 in at least one of the previous two majors. I have not made any final decisions in terms of betting but ultimately am eyeing players that are in form total drivers of the ball, good wedge players and in form on approach, good lag putters, and players that have had success on comp courses and difficult scoring conditions. Will be back to update
Absolutely. He is in consideration for me for sure. I think hitting fairways consistently here is the easiest way to separate. The rough and fairway bunkers are going to be brutal. Off the tee play will increase in importance this week big time
Currently debating going up top to either Bryson or Rahm, or play a more balanced card of accuracy and good OTT guys that I think can contend here such as straka, Conners, Henley, Fleetwood. Those are the guys im kinda swimming around as of now
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Quote Originally Posted by Boa33:
@Rollz This venue screams Straka.
Absolutely. He is in consideration for me for sure. I think hitting fairways consistently here is the easiest way to separate. The rough and fairway bunkers are going to be brutal. Off the tee play will increase in importance this week big time
Currently debating going up top to either Bryson or Rahm, or play a more balanced card of accuracy and good OTT guys that I think can contend here such as straka, Conners, Henley, Fleetwood. Those are the guys im kinda swimming around as of now
Dont count out Shane Lowry top 5, he is a great driver and iron player Burns is coming off a great week in Canada and is one of the best putters Also considering Brian Harmon, great driver and putter
Yep I meant to add Lowry to that list of guys I’m considering. Hard not to like him here, played great here back in 2016
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Quote Originally Posted by UGACLP1995:
Dont count out Shane Lowry top 5, he is a great driver and iron player Burns is coming off a great week in Canada and is one of the best putters Also considering Brian Harmon, great driver and putter
Yep I meant to add Lowry to that list of guys I’m considering. Hard not to like him here, played great here back in 2016
Just a little explanation on my 2 early outrights…
I think Rahm is close. Finishing top 10 on liv virtually every week. I don’t think the golf courses they play on liv generally play in to Rahms strength. This one certainly should, He’s one of the best players in the world on difficult golf courses, ranking 4th in difficult scoring conditions in this field. He’s one of the best drivers of the ball in the world as he is both long and accurate which is the easiest way to separate at Oakmont. And additionally is one of the best scramblers in the world. He has also won at both Muirfield village and Olympia fields, 2 difficult golf courses with thick rough like we’ll see this week. Rahm has also posted 3 top 7’s in open championships which is an angle im looking at this week. I would imagine Rahm feels a little left out of the discussion of best golfers in the world with scheffler doing what he does on a weekly basis and dechambeau getting a ton of love as of late. This seems like a great opportunity for Rahm to re-announce himself as a top 3 golfer in the world.
I think 100-1 is a good price on Harris English who has had a resurgence this season with a win on another difficult golf course in Torrey pines and a 2nd in the previous major at quail. What do these courses have in common? Both long and difficult like we’ll see this week. English has consistently shown that he has the game to compete at a US Open, with 3 top 8’s in the event in the past 5 years. Ranks in the top 15 in this field on golf courses with thick rough and is driving the ball as well as he ever has this season. I love what English is doing this year, specifically with the driver. We know he can win a tournament on the back of his putter, I think this venue plays to his strengths as I believe you can truly separate with the driver and putter here.
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Just a little explanation on my 2 early outrights…
I think Rahm is close. Finishing top 10 on liv virtually every week. I don’t think the golf courses they play on liv generally play in to Rahms strength. This one certainly should, He’s one of the best players in the world on difficult golf courses, ranking 4th in difficult scoring conditions in this field. He’s one of the best drivers of the ball in the world as he is both long and accurate which is the easiest way to separate at Oakmont. And additionally is one of the best scramblers in the world. He has also won at both Muirfield village and Olympia fields, 2 difficult golf courses with thick rough like we’ll see this week. Rahm has also posted 3 top 7’s in open championships which is an angle im looking at this week. I would imagine Rahm feels a little left out of the discussion of best golfers in the world with scheffler doing what he does on a weekly basis and dechambeau getting a ton of love as of late. This seems like a great opportunity for Rahm to re-announce himself as a top 3 golfer in the world.
I think 100-1 is a good price on Harris English who has had a resurgence this season with a win on another difficult golf course in Torrey pines and a 2nd in the previous major at quail. What do these courses have in common? Both long and difficult like we’ll see this week. English has consistently shown that he has the game to compete at a US Open, with 3 top 8’s in the event in the past 5 years. Ranks in the top 15 in this field on golf courses with thick rough and is driving the ball as well as he ever has this season. I love what English is doing this year, specifically with the driver. We know he can win a tournament on the back of his putter, I think this venue plays to his strengths as I believe you can truly separate with the driver and putter here.
I kinda like Finau this week. I don’t think he’s ready to win at this point but I would consider a positional on him. He’s been really good on difficult golf courses throughout his career
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Quote Originally Posted by Boa33:
@Rollz Thoughts on Tony Finau
I kinda like Finau this week. I don’t think he’s ready to win at this point but I would consider a positional on him. He’s been really good on difficult golf courses throughout his career
Good stuff Rollz! Thanks for all the info you post! I read almost every week, just don't post much. So far this week I'm on: Straka/English make cut parlay @+127
Thanks for stopping by brotha, that seems pretty reasonable at those odds. My only concern is English is going to be incredibly popular this week which isnt always a good thing, but both of those guys make a lot of sense here IMO
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Quote Originally Posted by bense197969:
Good stuff Rollz! Thanks for all the info you post! I read almost every week, just don't post much. So far this week I'm on: Straka/English make cut parlay @+127
Thanks for stopping by brotha, that seems pretty reasonable at those odds. My only concern is English is going to be incredibly popular this week which isnt always a good thing, but both of those guys make a lot of sense here IMO
Just watched back the the final round of the 2016 US open at oakmont, and it is pretty evident that dustin johnson won it with his driver. I think when looking at outrights you really want good total drivers of the ball (length and accuracy) which is part of the reason i took keegan bradley at a great number. You can certainly get it done around here by just plodding every fairway but the guys that combine both distance and accuracy will really be able to separate on this golf course. Ludvig is a guy that comes to mind who could absolutely separate with his driver on this golf course.
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Just watched back the the final round of the 2016 US open at oakmont, and it is pretty evident that dustin johnson won it with his driver. I think when looking at outrights you really want good total drivers of the ball (length and accuracy) which is part of the reason i took keegan bradley at a great number. You can certainly get it done around here by just plodding every fairway but the guys that combine both distance and accuracy will really be able to separate on this golf course. Ludvig is a guy that comes to mind who could absolutely separate with his driver on this golf course.
Just watched back the the final round of the 2016 US open at oakmont, and it is pretty evident that dustin johnson won it with his driver. I think when looking at outrights you really want good total drivers of the ball (length and accuracy) which is part of the reason i took keegan bradley at a great number. You can certainly get it done around here by just plodding every fairway but the guys that combine both distance and accuracy will really be able to separate on this golf course. Ludvig is a guy that comes to mind who could absolutely win this tournament with his driver. I just think OTT play is going to be uber important this week.
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Just watched back the the final round of the 2016 US open at oakmont, and it is pretty evident that dustin johnson won it with his driver. I think when looking at outrights you really want good total drivers of the ball (length and accuracy) which is part of the reason i took keegan bradley at a great number. You can certainly get it done around here by just plodding every fairway but the guys that combine both distance and accuracy will really be able to separate on this golf course. Ludvig is a guy that comes to mind who could absolutely win this tournament with his driver. I just think OTT play is going to be uber important this week.
I would say Fleetwood and Aberg are my other favorite outrights as of now. I may add one of these and just be a little overexposed because it’s the US Open and why not
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I would say Fleetwood and Aberg are my other favorite outrights as of now. I may add one of these and just be a little overexposed because it’s the US Open and why not
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