THE ONLY GOOD MASTERS THREAD OUT THERE

I know this site ain´t about golf, but a lot of people want to bet this Masters. Most of them have no clue about how you should cap golf. So, here is how you do it. 

I) The only course traits that matter about Augusta National:

1. Long par 4s. The par 3s and the par 5s are nothing out of the standard length
2. Very wide fairways.
3. Rough is not that long, so if you miss the fairway, unless you land in the woods and next to a tree, you probably are good to go. Water is not much of a problem off the tee in this course.
4. Probably the Toughest greens in the planet in terms of breaks and especially speed.
5. The key to this course is to make sure you birdie 75%+ of the par 5s, which are all reacheable in two; and then try to break even in the par 3s and par 4s of the course.  

1. We want long drivers. Accuracy off the tee is not very relevant for this tournament. Short hitters will always struggle here. Take a guy like Brendon Todd, he will need to be making 200+ yard approaches in most par 4s. Yes, you can make cases for Webb and Molinari recently to refute my argument, but they are exceptions to the rule, and in the end… THEY DID NOT WIN IT.
2. We need the smartest and most accurate guys with their approach shots. Greens in regulation do not matter as much as leaving yourself good chances of getting it in in two shots after your approach shot. What I mean is, with how tough and fast this greens are, in Augusta more than anywhere else, it is always better to have a short chip or even a bunker shot, than a long downhill put.
3. Related to the last point, that is why everyone insists in the importance of course knowledge. At Augusta you need to know where can you afford to miss.
4. Despite what many guys say, I think that putting skills in Augusta are offset due to how tough the greens are. Experience is key again here to judge the speed.

MY PICKS: 

***I took DJ at +1600 about 3 months ago. I won´t count him now because I think that +900 is way too short for him now. Still DJ to me looks much better at those odds than Rahm, Rory, Xander, etc. 

1. Bubba Watson: Recently he is up there in terms of level of play with Bryson and DJ, in terms of strokes gaines ball striking. The main difference is Bubba´s odds are 4x Bryson´s. And Bubba is a 2x winner here, and played great last year (he arrived with a much worse level). Odds: I found 37.5 at Pinny. There are several books that have him at 36. Seriously, I think Bubba is among the top 5 guys in terms of chances to win this.
2. Tony Finau: Great recent results at the Masters. He is constant and his game is always on point. We all know that Finau struggles with his putt. But base don my reads above, I think his putting defficiencies are somewhat offset in this course. Odds: 40.0 (at the exchanges you can still find that I think. 38 is fine as well)
3. Bryson: Trust me, I hate paying +850 for a golfer to win. But this freak has been obsessed with winning this tournament for almost a month now. Noone works as hard as he does. He has the length to shatter this course. Even if he is missing fairways, this course is forgiving since the trees do not have overhanging branches and even an amateur like me can sort out that rough. Bryson will be contending, there is no doubt about it. The key for him to win will be a matter of playing an average approach game and not bogeying the par 3s.

        To put things in perspective. According to Freddie Couples, in his practice round Bryson hit a Pitching Wedge 2nd shot in the 11th hole which is a 500 yd+ monster and one of the toughest holes in the course. Also, in the par 5 13th hole, he had a second shot of 135 yards, since he is able to cut a "corner" with his driver (more like half the hole). LMAO. Trust me, I am mad I did not get him at 20.0 when I had the chance to. But Bryson definitely has more than a 15% chance of winning this. 

My card probably will stop there, but there are two other guys that I like:

1. Cantlay: Cantlay is the definition of ABCD golf. He does everything right. Sort of a Webb Simpson but with more distance. He won his last start and got rid of the injury ghosts. However, his recent stats show that he has been putting and chipping absurdly well. And I doubt that is sustainable. I´d rather take guys whose ball striking is lights out but the putt is missing. The main reason why Im not betting him is because he is priced at 28.0; less than Bubba!! I also like Finau better than Cantlay in terms of true chances of winning. 
2. Mathew Wolff: Wolff hits it as long as anyone not named Bryson. And he had been lights out with his approach shots until his previous 2 tourneys. I don´t like the lack of experience, but 55.0 odds are tempting.  I think Augusta suits him perfectly, and he will win it in the future. Long and wide. Great importance of approach shots. Thats the Wolff man. 

There you go mates. Enjoy the Bryson show and for the sake of golf, hopefully he does not win it (and Bubba does  :) )

I’ve invested in both let’s go

 Good luck

Thanks guys! BOL to u too. I´ve dug deep today. And the more I look into it, the more I feel this is Bryson´s tourney.
Yesterday I was convinced I would not bet Bryson. But after looking closely at the course again today. Those long drives give him way too much of an edge. 

The weather will play a huge factor as well.  Rain chances each day.  That variable alone would get me away from any player priced +850.  

Strokes gained on approach to green & putting be big.  Bryson nowhere near the top in 2020 season. Not saying he can’t win but just an alternative viewpoint before laying those big odds by golf standards! Best of luck.  

Sugarhouse in PA is offering +100 on Tigers first tee shot to land in the fairway. Is this free money or am I missing something? 

Thanks for this. lots of detail. 

Thanks for the comment brother. I am a degen of golf betting (even when I had never posted) and am glad to see some technical arguments. 

I think that SG Approach stats can be quite deceptive when we look at bombers. SG Ball Striking are much more important as a whole. Bryson is a bulked up animal. Clearly if you make him play a 130yd hole against Justin Thomas or Morikawa (who are probably the 2 best in terms of SG Approach for the past season), JT and CM will have a big edge. I think all that muscle takes a small toll on Bryson in terms of accuracy with his short irons; and that is the reason why his SG Approach stats are average, and his SG Approach stats are worse now than the "Pre-Hulk Bryson". However, his SG Ball Striking are WAYY BETTER now. 

You need to understand that especially in Augusta where fairways are easier to hit, and the penalty if you miss them is not that harsh; Bryson will be making approaches 40 yards shorter than the rest. There is no doubt that Bryson with a wedge or a 9 iron, will have a HUGE edge vs JT with a 6 or 5 iron. This is precisely the reason why I mentioned that the key for Bryson this week will be to not fuck up the par 3s, where his distance edge is nullified. Of course, there will be some holes where he misses the fairway bady and he will be struggling to save par. But he will, without a doubt, have the most birdie opportunities of the whole field in Par 4s and Par 5s. 

Now, with SG Putting, Augusta is a different animal. Tiger won it last year, but contrary to public belief, Tiger is not and has never been a great putter. Patrick Reed is a very solid putter (although in 2018 he was not gaining nearly as much strokes as he is now with his putter). SERGIO GARCIA WON THIS TOURNAMENT... a guy that averaged -0.3 strokes per round with his putter, and sucked so bad with his putter, that decided to try putting with his eyes closed. As I have mentioned, Augusta´s greens are so fast and tough, that the edge of great putters is diminished vs the worst ones like Hideki, Finau, Garcia, etc. The key in this course is to be able to place your second shot at spots where you will have an easy way to 2 shots to the hole. And in order to do that, the most important aspect as I see it, is to be able to shorten the course with your driver. 

And last but not least... Bryson is not elite at approach (even if his most recent stats place him 5th in the PGA), and especially he is not elite around the green. But he is definitely an elite putter. He was 10th in SG putting in 2020 and 28th in 2019). So if you were to be right about SG Putting importance in Augusta (which I dispute), you actually should be betting him even more. 

Cheers

All in all, my approach this week is the bombers that have been hot with their irons recently. I have in my card the 4 best at doing that. 

BOL and thanks for joining. 

Great stuff - BOL

@gutinstinctus

 Can’t argue the logic, I appreciate the detailed response! 

Good stuff Gus. I may wait to see if Bryce isnt in the lead after 1st or 2nd round, but not too far back yo see if I can get better than 7.5-8/1 odds. But, well shall see.

I know nothing about golf is Bryson a good punt at +105 to finish top 10?

I think he is but I prefer him winning outright. He will be mega aggressive and that has a big upside but alsoa big downside. No in between colors. 

For top 10 Id rather take Finau

whats your thoughts on 2nd round matchups..you liking any?

Sorry bro, just saw this. Tomorrow there will be plenty of spots. I won´t have access to Covers tonight (maybe from my cell phone but I hate posting from there since the format is always fucked up). In general terms, in the later rounds I think the long hitters have an edge. The course is starting to be less receptive. 

I misread a factor this tournament and it was the course conditions. They did not benefit the longer hitters as I thought and as the broadcasters still seem to think. The shorter hitters who are hitting greens with 5i are seeing their balls land and stay as if they were hitting a PW. That should change a bit the next two days. 

Also, I may sound crazy, but at 40-1 I still like Bryson. He has run horribly this tourney. Yesterday, the 13th and that bounce. Today, not finding a ball at the rough with no trees. That is unheard of. There is a 5 stroke differential there. Ive seen him all tourney long and am aware that he may not make the cut, but you have to be insane to think that there is not a 5% chance that he gets hot and finishes -4 or - 5 today (even being +2). 

As it has gone for me, I need DJ BADLY haha

thank for the reply gutins! i love the information you provide and i dont cap much golf at all but wanted some action and thanks to you i did pretty well on day 1, so thank you again and BOL

Appreciate the writeup! I'm capping for DFS. Also golf noob. Fading Bryson got me Rahm, Bubba and slotted me for Smith. Read your post after lock, so I felt better about things. Got a couple guys sitting right on the cut as of Friday. Amazing how they do that salary capping.

Cheers to all. 

Thank God DJ held up. At one point I feared I was going to end 4k in the red. 

I had 1000 on Bryson pretourney. 700 on Bubba. 500 on Finau. 500 more on Bryson in play, 500 on Dustin (to win 7500). 500 on Dustin at 5.3 (to win 2,150). 300 on JT (after round 1). And 650 yesterday on Cam Smith at 6.0 since I needed to middle a bit. 

So in the end, I had USD 5,250 on the line. And got back 10,150. 5k profit. Sounds amazing and it is, but I don´t post this as a brag. I post it to show how close I was to an absolute disaster and how important is bankroll managing and planning prior to the tournament. I knew this before, and have been trying to bet smart and patiently for 2 years now, but still fucked up and put almost 7% of my current betting Bankroll on one tournament! 

Looking in perspective, I like my Bryson in play bet, but pretourney I should not be putting so much money to a juiced up guy, especially when I also like to pull the trigger in play. Lesson learnt.

Also, I believe golf betting in play has some serious value when you are able to watch the whole tournament. I did not bet more on Dustin at 5.3 because I was already balls deep in this Masters, and that was a problem as well. Good BR management at that point, but I fucked up earlier by betting so much on DeChambeau and my other pretourney guys. I watched the whole tournament and you could see in Rd. 2 that DJ was playing flawless golf. Got unlucky on a par 5 that landed on the green in 2, but rolled to the water. And he also had 3 very short putts that were downhill and impossible to make. So a 5 shot swing almost. 

Anyways, as mentioned, variance is awful in golf and there is a huge element of luck in it, probably the most out of any sport. So we should be extra careful in terms of BR management. 

GL fellas