Scottish Open Day 4 - Fade McIlroy

Supposed to be windy tomorrow. Which means scores can fluctuate.

While McIlroy is very good in the wind, there is 9 players within 3 and 23 players within 6.

If they were more spread out, or McIlroy had a bigger lead, I would take him. But he is also having a lot of putting doubts this weekend, which would hurt him on a Sunday, especially when having the wind in his face. It is very difficult to have a 1 stroke lead through 56 and win.

I think there is a >50% chance he goes away. Which is pretty much what the books think. He is +130/+140.

So this is where it gets interesting. Just assume he won't win. Who will?

Besides Scheffler, who is 3 back and at +750, Tom Kim, 1 back at +500, and Fleetwood, 2 back at +600, the remaining players are priced between 1400 and 80000. 

It feels like one of those fun days where one of the +20000 players can win. One Eagle from someone 6 back, and they are in 10th place and 3 off the lead. Not to mention, with the wind, there is a good chance for some leaders to bogie. 

So I am playing the field with the long odds, for some fun.

N Taylor +80000

Schauffle +18000

Hatton +7000 (DK)

MacIntyre +15000

Lowry +1600 (DK)

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I really like MacIntyre, Taylor, and Schauffle because of the long odds

I really like Lowry because of the weather.

I really like Hatton because the odds vs FD (+5000) seem good, and the weather. 

Sprinkle a few hundred on the rest of the field to make sure I make a few grand if I am right.

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There is a narrative here that McIlroy misses a few fairways and putts bad, Fleetwood used up his mojo yesterday, and the other leaders play average. Then a couple of the pros who are 3,4,5,or 6 back have a great day. Odds of this happening? I'd say 33%. There are only 3 players 1-2 back, and 26 within 6. I'd give it a DD chance one of those players catches up. At least if it pays +1600, +700, +15000, and +80000.

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Join or fade, best of luck. 

Also, the weather helps earlier players. At 9 AM, the wind is supposed to be 20 mph. At 11 AM, it’s supposed to be 25 mph. So conditions should be 25% harder for McIlroy’s group 

I like Eric Cole sitting 3 shots back, currently +33-1

MacIntyre for the home win

Yeah great thinking 

Straight

Mac Attack delivered the eagle but Rory hit his birdies on 17 and 18. Was able to hedge decently, but I left it lopsided, counting on the wind on 17/18 to mess up Rory. It did not. He's clearly rated a top 3 player in the world for a reason.

It was -900 / +500 for MacIntyre when Rory was going in to 17. Can't say I didn't try!

I’m trying to post a ticket in here for $15 I would’ve won 1900 

I’ll be in shock for days

Jul 15, 2023 3:31 pm PST Straight G136123424 - Golf - / Tournament / Outright Winner / Robert Macintyre +12500 Risk: $15.00To Win: $1,875.00

@PeAceMaKer7690

This was an epic pick by you. It should have won! No hard feelings towards you, this was just a tough pill to swallow. Good luck to you going forward 

That was tough one to lose. Nice pick by you both. Macintyre with a -6 for the round under those conditions, birdied 18th, I thought he had it. Hats off to McIlroy though, birdied last two, was hoping he'd miss that 10' put.

I had Grant Forrest to win and make Top 10, ended in sole possession of 11th at -8. It's not easy, needless to say. On to the Open.

@Masspike

 I'm just pissed I didn't hedge it out, when it was so easy to.

It was +500 to hedge out of it. 

Feeling dumb. Risked fricking $2500 to save $500 of profit.