Rocket Mortgage Classic

Stephan Jaeger (65-1)

You may be able to find a better number tomorrow, but I think this is fair so I’m biting. Write up later 

On to the rocket mortgage classic this week in what is potentially the most uninteresting event we’ll see all year. This event is held in Detroit at Detroit Golf Club which is a par 72 Donald Ross design measuring out at 7,370 yards. It’s a very flat venue with relatively thick rough, wide fairways, and small green surfaces. Detroit GC is typically an extremely easy golf course where players seemingly can gain an edge by launching the ball off the tee and spiking with the wedges and putter. While this golf course is incredibly bland and boring, I think there is still some value to be found. I’ll detail below what I’m looking for this week.

We have consistently seen longer hitters off the tee have success here with names like Cam Davis, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, and Stephan Jaeger all having high end finishes on this golf course. This is not to say shorter hitters can’t compete, but the sample size is large enough to where we know longer hitters are starting on 2nd base here. This is due to the fact that longer hitters can tear up these easy par 5s and that there is very little missed fairway penalty. This is a very wedge heavy golf course so longer players will have very short approaches into greens that are very manageable out of the rough as well. I definitely prefer players who are long off the tee and have had success on these driver heavy golf courses with hardly any missed fairway penalty, although I don’t think off the tee play is super significant here. You can get away with an average week with the driver as long as the wedges and putter are hot.

As mentioned above, this golf course has one of the highest wedge rates on the pga tour with majority of approaches coming from 50-125 yards. Players should have no issues hitting these greens given the high rate of wedges and green complexes that are pretty simple. Donald Ross greens are typically a challenge, but these surfaces have flattened out over the years. Players that can hit their wedges close, score on the par 5s, and convert birdie putts will pop on the leaderboard this week. I’ll be looking for decent recent approach play and long term wedge success.

If you are having to get up and down around the green consistently here, you are already dead. With a super high greens in regulation %, I will hardly be factoring in around the green play in my modeling. With that said I will have an extra emphasis on putting this week. Everyone who reads these write ups probably knows by now that I don’t typically factor in putting much given the variance from week-to-week. But it is hard to ignore that players that have filled leaderboards at this event have typically done so by spiking with the putter, not to mention this event is typically won at at least 20 under par so you’ll have to make putts to contend. Putting is a big chunk of the stroked gained pie this week. I’m looking at recent putting stats as well as long term putting on bent/poa surfaces. May be a good look to see how players have fared on Donald Ross greens as well given they are fairly unique.

Ultimately on this golf course I want players that are long off the tee, good wedge players, and can get hot with the putter. I’m also looking at guys that have had high end success in easy scoring conditions, good par 5 scorers, as well as course history as it has been fairly predictive. There are some comparative courses that I’m looking at as well in TPC Craig ranch and TPC Deere Run, both easy golf courses where you can bomb it off the tee and separate with the putter. Will pop in here with plays throughout the week.

Top 10 (ties included):

Stephan Jaeger (+500)

Max Greyserman (40-1)