Rocket Mortgage Classic

Stephan Jaeger (65-1)

You may be able to find a better number tomorrow, but I think this is fair so I’m biting. Write up later 

On to the rocket mortgage classic this week in what is potentially the most uninteresting event we’ll see all year. This event is held in Detroit at Detroit Golf Club which is a par 72 Donald Ross design measuring out at 7,370 yards. It’s a very flat venue with relatively thick rough, wide fairways, and small green surfaces. Detroit GC is typically an extremely easy golf course where players seemingly can gain an edge by launching the ball off the tee and spiking with the wedges and putter. While this golf course is incredibly bland and boring, I think there is still some value to be found. I’ll detail below what I’m looking for this week.

We have consistently seen longer hitters off the tee have success here with names like Cam Davis, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, and Stephan Jaeger all having high end finishes on this golf course. This is not to say shorter hitters can’t compete, but the sample size is large enough to where we know longer hitters are starting on 2nd base here. This is due to the fact that longer hitters can tear up these easy par 5s and that there is very little missed fairway penalty. This is a very wedge heavy golf course so longer players will have very short approaches into greens that are very manageable out of the rough as well. I definitely prefer players who are long off the tee and have had success on these driver heavy golf courses with hardly any missed fairway penalty, although I don’t think off the tee play is super significant here. You can get away with an average week with the driver as long as the wedges and putter are hot.

As mentioned above, this golf course has one of the highest wedge rates on the pga tour with majority of approaches coming from 50-125 yards. Players should have no issues hitting these greens given the high rate of wedges and green complexes that are pretty simple. Donald Ross greens are typically a challenge, but these surfaces have flattened out over the years. Players that can hit their wedges close, score on the par 5s, and convert birdie putts will pop on the leaderboard this week. I’ll be looking for decent recent approach play and long term wedge success.

If you are having to get up and down around the green consistently here, you are already dead. With a super high greens in regulation %, I will hardly be factoring in around the green play in my modeling. With that said I will have an extra emphasis on putting this week. Everyone who reads these write ups probably knows by now that I don’t typically factor in putting much given the variance from week-to-week. But it is hard to ignore that players that have filled leaderboards at this event have typically done so by spiking with the putter, not to mention this event is typically won at at least 20 under par so you’ll have to make putts to contend. Putting is a big chunk of the stroked gained pie this week. I’m looking at recent putting stats as well as long term putting on bent/poa surfaces. May be a good look to see how players have fared on Donald Ross greens as well given they are fairly unique.

Ultimately on this golf course I want players that are long off the tee, good wedge players, and can get hot with the putter. I’m also looking at guys that have had high end success in easy scoring conditions, good par 5 scorers, as well as course history as it has been fairly predictive. There are some comparative courses that I’m looking at as well in TPC Craig ranch and TPC Deere Run, both easy golf courses where you can bomb it off the tee and separate with the putter. Will pop in here with plays throughout the week.

Top 10 (ties included):

Stephan Jaeger (+500)

Max Greyserman (40-1)

Morikowa top 5

I personally dont love this spot for him. Hes not gaining any edge really with his accuracy off the tee here and approach play is a little devalued with all the wedges into greens, dont trust him to make a ton of putts, etc. If your logic is he's due for a big week then i cant argue with that, hes been pretty disappointing as of late by his standards.

Wow thats awesome, good stuff euro  Always a pleasure to see the books take a beating

Victor Perez (90-1)

Top 20 (ties included):

Victor Perez (+300)

Just to consolidate here’s everything I’ve got in so far. 

Outrights:

Max Greyserman (40-1)

Stephan Jaeger (65-1)

Victor Perez (90-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Max Greyserman (+333)

Stephan Jaeger (+500)

Top 20 (ties included):

Emiliano Grillo (+275)

Victor Perez (+300)

How you can not love cam Davis again here?   I also agree with name you mentioned earlier in Cameron young…..he’s fallen off for sure but this course always seems to be a bright spot for him and boy does he need it 

Yep just can't bet them all unfortunately. I dont hate either of the cams. Cam davis every year has basically no form then just either wins or top 20's here lol. The issue for me with cameron young is his betting number, Just on principle I dont know if i can bring myself to bet him at a lower price than Hideki Matsuyama, one of the most decorated golfers in the game today. Just not sure your getting a fair number on him, but i certainly get it.

Respect your opinion and I don’t comment often but I live in Detroit and go to this tournament yearly so this an event I wager on a little bigger than most…..I also have my eyes on clanton and hoey…..I can’t get away from the fact that Detroit is a horse for course event like no other, there’s just not enough that they can change to where the guys that are good don’t already know what to expect when they set foot on the grounds 

I will be tailing Jaeger on both win and top 10

good luck

They’re doing a renovation after this year that sounds pretty promising, I’ve heard rumors that they might let this place go to hell for this event this week because of these plans, so there’s a chance it’s firmer and a tad more difficult.

Btw, cam young can absolutely win here just not sure I can fit him on my card with how I want to structure it this week. Don’t blame you for playing him at all.  Clanton is in strong consideration for me as well, hoey makes sense just can’t putt which is scary here lol. Good luck and enjoy yourself out there 

Luke Clanton (40-1)

Jaeger 60/1…

Hodges 105/1…

Potgeiter 115/1…

Longshot will win this week…

I tend to agree with you. These make sense good luck this week!

Will post some finishing touches to the card shortly 

Full card. Take these positional with a grain of salt, lots of variance at this golf course. Could definitely make the case to go lighter in that regard this week, but why not have some fun in a fun adverse event  GL!

Outrights:

Luke Clanton (40-1)

Max Greyserman (40-1)

Stephan Jaeger (65-1)

Victor Perez (90-1)

Michael Thorbjornsen (100-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Max Greyserman (+333)

Stephan Jaeger (+500)

Top 20 (ties included):

Luke Clanton (+162)

Alex Smalley (+225)

Emiliano Grillo (+275)

Mark Hubbard (+350)

Victor Perez (+300)

do you ever post h2h matxhup by round ?

I don’t, and I probably should. I know a lot of golf cappers feel that is where all the value is. Just have never gotten into that market for whatever reason. I may dabble in the near future 

This course is an absolute joke for these guys  

Got 3 outrights in the top 8 heading into the weekend and positionals looking ok. Could be a fun weekend, but lots of golf left. Crowded leaderboard 

Wonder what the record score is for having to make a cut. -6 has to be close... It's like putt putt for these guys.

Hideki the class of the upper part of the leaderboard... Fleetwood choke last week, Morikawa is looming, +850 and Hideki is +1600 and they're tied. Morikawa continues to get respect he just doesn't deserve...If you've bet on him to win for the last 3 years, your likely using an EBT card by now to eat.

Did anyone catch what the odds were when Bradley was down a shot going to #18 last week. I'd love to know. My guess is -1500 on Fleetwood +1000 on Bradley. They never give you the leader up a shot without having to pay dearly for it on final hole. 

I think Bradley was +550 going into 18

Lookin like another potential Sunday sweat with Greyserman and Thor in the mix. I have zero confidence in potgieter to close on a Sunday so I like our chances to at least have a look at it.