Posted:
#1
Daniel Berger (65-1)
RBC Heritage
Views: 1004
Posts: 20
Posted:
#2
Having a case of the masters hangover today, nonetheless we are moving on to the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head. This is a signature event held at harbour town which is a short, Pete Dye design measuring out at a modest 7,191 yds. This event is usually won in the mid-teens ranking around the middle of the pack of pga tour courses in difficulty. Harbour town is a tight venue that is not won with power off the tee, but rather elite short game and iron play.
Off the tee has not historically graded out as an important skill set to have at this venue. It appears accuracy off the tee would be the priority given these really tight fairway landing areas, but with this being a short, positional golf course most guys will opt to leave driver in the bag on many of these holes. Overhanging trees, tight doglegs, and tiny green surfaces all result in guys pulling irons and woods off the tee to hit their spots. This will lead me to not put a lot of weight into off the tee play given that it is largely neutralized. Off the tee has accounted for the 2nd fewest strokes gained here of all the courses on the pga tour. I will take a look at guys that had success on these short, positional courses. Otherwise I’m much more focused on approach and short game specialists. Pretty much everyone will be playing from the same spots in the fairway if they execute, which increases the importance of what you do after the tee shot.
Approach play has historically accounted for a big chunk of strokes gained at this event. Most approaches at this venue will come from anywhere from 100-200 yds with alot of wedges into extremely small greens. This is a pretty difficult course on approach with these small, firm green surfaces so I will certainly be looking for in form approach players which has served as the biggest piece of the strokes gained pie at this event by a wide margin year after year. Iron play is absolutely the best way to separate yourself at Harbour town.
Given the small, firm greens we’ll see an added importance in around the green play. These are tough greens to hit which results in guys having to get up and down more often, especially on the par 5s which have quite low greens in regulation %. Having a good around the green game can result in a lot of birdies at this event on the 5s. I would prefer a serviceable around the green game here. I’m putting an added weight into putting this week. We consistently see good putters compete at Harbour town. These are over seeded Bermuda surfaces that are relatively flat. With this course being pretty easy it’ll require guys to keep up by spiking with the putter. Guys are going to have a ton of 5-15 footers here and the players who can hit the most of those should fair well.
In form approach play is the most important way to separate at this event, followed by around the green/putting. I will be looking for guys who are solid in both categories, good history on short positional venues (sawgrass, innisbrook, sea island), and decent course history at Harbour town (not a priority). I played Daniel Berger at open will be back with more 
Posted:
#12
Quote Originally Posted by WYBBOB:
I’m waiting on Berger as all I see is 39/1 & it should go up…
I’m waiting on Berger as all I see is 39/1 & it should go up…
Cauley is also in consideration for me so looks like we’re very aligned this week. I feel there’s a ton of guys in this field that could win this event as the short layout evens the playing field a bit. Makes things a little harder for me when deciding outrights. I’ll be back tonight once I get everything narrowed down
Posted:
#14
Rolling out some longer shots this week primarily on the outright card. This tournament feels wide open, although it’s a great spot for scheffler to re-emerge with Rory stealing the spotlight. Will be on him heavily in Dfs. Lots of tough calls on positionals and played more than I wanted to this week just because I wanted exposure to all of these guys. GL friends 
Outrights:
Corey Conners (25-1)
Wyndham Clark (55-1)
Daniel Berger (65-1)
Akshay Bhatia (65-1)
Billy Horschel (130-1)
Top 10 (ties included):
Corey Conners (+180)
Russell Henley (+190)
Tommy Fleetwood (+230)
Sungjae Im (+260)
Wyndham Clark (+350)
Top 20 (ties included):
Daniel Berger (+125)
Akshay Bhatia (+160)
Brian Harman (+170)
Posted:
#15
Morikawa is due for a win. Can't bet him without a parlay at short odds.
For value: I like MacIntyre and Straka here. Then Spaun
Also the long shots are good odds (team Cam): Cam Young, Davis.
Corales: Favorites are priced correctly, imho. Mitchell and Smalley should shred this course up.
For value: I like Norlander. He fits the course. Fisk has also played well all year quietly.
Long shots: Kholes at 110 and Frittelli at 170 are worth a look.
China: Hope my man Neergard-Peterson pulls through. BTR is my value play.
Posted:
#16
Quote Originally Posted by PeAceMaKer7690:
Morikawa is due for a win. Can't bet him without a parlay at short odds. For value: I like MacIntyre and Straka here. Then Spaun Also the long shots are good odds (team Cam): Cam Young, Davis. Corales: Favorites are priced correctly, imho. Mitchell and Smalley should shred this course up. For value: I like Norlander. He fits the course. Fisk has also played well all year quietly. Long shots: Kholes at 110 and Frittelli at 170 are worth a look. China: Hope my man Neergard-Peterson pulls through. BTR is my value play.
Morikawa is due for a win. Can't bet him without a parlay at short odds. For value: I like MacIntyre and Straka here. Then Spaun Also the long shots are good odds (team Cam): Cam Young, Davis. Corales: Favorites are priced correctly, imho. Mitchell and Smalley should shred this course up. For value: I like Norlander. He fits the course. Fisk has also played well all year quietly. Long shots: Kholes at 110 and Frittelli at 170 are worth a look. China: Hope my man Neergard-Peterson pulls through. BTR is my value play.
I can’t argue against macintyre/straka/Spaun. All make alot of sense here, just couldn’t fit them on my card. GL buddy 
Posted:
#17
Quote Originally Posted by PeAceMaKer7690:
Morikawa is due for a win. Can't bet him without a parlay at short odds. For value: I like MacIntyre and Straka here. Then Spaun Also the long shots are good odds (team Cam): Cam Young, Davis. Corales: Favorites are priced correctly, imho. Mitchell and Smalley should shred this course up. For value: I like Norlander. He fits the course. Fisk has also played well all year quietly. Long shots: Kholes at 110 and Frittelli at 170 are worth a look. China: Hope my man Neergard-Peterson pulls through. BTR is my value play.
Morikawa is due for a win. Can't bet him without a parlay at short odds. For value: I like MacIntyre and Straka here. Then Spaun Also the long shots are good odds (team Cam): Cam Young, Davis. Corales: Favorites are priced correctly, imho. Mitchell and Smalley should shred this course up. For value: I like Norlander. He fits the course. Fisk has also played well all year quietly. Long shots: Kholes at 110 and Frittelli at 170 are worth a look. China: Hope my man Neergard-Peterson pulls through. BTR is my value play.
On Kohles with you & Pi Coody…
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