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Pebble Beach picks

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Posted: #1
Sometimes in gambling, there are wagers that on the surface look to be coin flips, but you have a very strong feeling one way, and you're forced to lay off...or play it with 100% confidence and not look back.

This week is one of those weeks.

The last couple times I've watched Jason Day play, he's looked off.  He went through a torrid stretch last year where he looked like the unquestioned best golfer in the world.  But this isn't that time.  He had a back injury, and he hasn't looked good since.  He has two WD's, and since then he has an unimpressive 12th at the Tournament of champions, and a MC at the Farmers.  And in watching the Farmers, he looked bad...especially his irons.  And if his irons aren't working at this tournament he's going to struggle big time.  So I'm fading Jason Day hard this week.

Dustin Johnson ov Jason Day

Jordan Spieth ov Jason Day

Justin Rose ov Brandt Snedeker

Justin Rose has looked sensational this season since his return.  He's showing no signs of rust, no back issues, and he looks like he's going to contend at most tournaments.  He's got a 2nd and a 4th place finish in his two tourneys, and I've just been really impressed with him.  Snedeker is streaky.  Goes from a 14th place to a MC to a 9th.  Snedeker has a couple wins here, but Rose had a solid 6th last year, so I don't think Brandt has the tourney advantage.  I think rose is in winning form, but Brandt is only in trying to compete for top 10 form.

Going to fade a couple guys I faded last week.

Stewart Cink ov Ryan Palmer

Something doesn't seem right with Palmer.  Another MC last week at +4, he hasn't made the cut in 2017.  Don't know if he's hurt, or he's got swing issues, but he's struggling.  Cink has 1 MC in the last 6 tourneys, and finished 20th at the Farmers, which is worth noting because the surface is similar.  Last year at this tourney Cink finished 21st, and Palmer finished 41st.

Tim Wilkinson ov Si Woo Kim

Faded Si Woo because of his back issues last week, and it appears he's still hurt.  He shot a +6 last week, and wasn't even close to the cut line.  Wilkinson has 4 straight made cuts, and if Si Woo Kim does have a bad back, this is not a good tournament for that.  The rounds take forever because of the Pro-Ams, there can be a lot of down time, a lot of waiting...a lot of opportunities for a back to get stiff, tighten up or Spasm.

I'll keep looking at the lines to see if there are anymore plays coming.
 
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Posted: #2
Soooooooo

Earlier today 5Dimes had the mentioned matchup above of Tim Wilkinson vs. Si Woo Kim.

I see that the matchup has been taken off the board, and Si Woo Kim's matchup is now Richy Werenski vs Si Woo Kim.

Werenski had a 20th at the Farmers, which I love because of the similarity in surfaces, and before that a 9th at the Career Builder, and 49th at the Sony.  I'm still playing this matchup with the same amount of confidence that I was Wilkinson.
 
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Posted: #3
Podcast?
 
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Posted: #4
Like your picks
Was on some already. 
I'm leaning Vaughn Taylor -110 v Matt Jones

Taylor won this last year 
T10 here in 2015 at -15 (but Jones was T6 at -16)

Taylor is 7 for 7 in cuts made this year. 
Jones only 2 of 4
Lean Taylor
Any opinion there?
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:

Podcast?

It's uploaded.  The Golf Betting Guys.  On iTunes.  
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Like your picks
Was on some already. 
I'm leaning Vaughn Taylor -110 v Matt Jones

Taylor won this last year 
T10 here in 2015 at -15 (but Jones was T6 at -16)

Taylor is 7 for 7 in cuts made this year. 
Jones only 2 of 4
Lean Taylor
Any opinion there?

I almost made this one of my plays.  I really like what I've seen from Taylor so far.  I don't put a whole lot of stock into his win last year because the weather was a big issue, and he got a lucky draw with the courses and wind...but still, a win is a win.  Definitely lean Taylor.  
 
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Posted: #7
great job last week everyone, and by everyone, i just mean alan and my self (not necessarily in that order).

i might have to pare down my writeups.  after last week's winning tip regarding the asians, looks like 5dimes took down this week's bets against this si woo kim fella.  now wilkinson is matched up against someone named sabbattini.  sounds like something i ordered at that italian restaurant last week.  the only sabatini athlete i know if is a female tennis player who was pretty good.  so, i'm all over wilkinson this week.

i like the bad back angle we are using this week.  remember, golfers are a little soft.  i've been known to pull a muscle in my back leaning over to brush my teeth.  i can't imagine what would hapen to my back if i had to swing a golf club all day for four days straight.  and i can't be much older than this phil guy.  he's been around forever.  ideally, alan could use his special computer skills that he uses for these podcasts to hack into these guys' medical records and see who is complaining of back problems.  absent that, we'll just have to go with the eye test. 

anyway, the bad news is i'll be out of town next week.  i won't get a chance to do my normal analysis on the course, the players' swings and their current form.  so alan is on his own.



 
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Posted: #8
I don't understand what the deal is with 5Dimes putting matchups up, and then taking them down.  At noon EST yesterday they had tons of matchups, I studied them and then a few hours later they were gone.  Same thing happened last night.  I don't get it... 
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:

great job last week everyone, and by everyone, i just mean alan and my self (not necessarily in that order).

i might have to pare down my writeups.  after last week's winning tip regarding the asians, looks like 5dimes took down this week's bets against this si woo kim fella.  now wilkinson is matched up against someone named sabbattini.  sounds like something i ordered at that italian restaurant last week.  the only sabatini athlete i know if is a female tennis player who was pretty good.  so, i'm all over wilkinson this week.

i like the bad back angle we are using this week.  remember, golfers are a little soft.  i've been known to pull a muscle in my back leaning over to brush my teeth.  i can't imagine what would hapen to my back if i had to swing a golf club all day for four days straight.  and i can't be much older than this phil guy.  he's been around forever.  ideally, alan could use his special computer skills that he uses for these podcasts to hack into these guys' medical records and see who is complaining of back problems.  absent that, we'll just have to go with the eye test. 

anyway, the bad news is i'll be out of town next week.  i won't get a chance to do my normal analysis on the course, the players' swings and their current form.  so alan is on his own.




I don't know how we'll survive without you next week...but we'll give it our best shot Club 
 
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Posted: #10
To win:
Dustin Johnson +700
Justin Rose +950
Jim Furyk +4000

I know Furyk is a long shot but he knows how to play on Poa Annua grass, taking a shot.

Tournament matchups:

Johnson over Day
Rose over Snedeker 
Furyk over Laird

Looking to add some more + obviously play round matchups when lines released. 
 
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Posted: #11
Thanks Andy?  Alan?  Which one is it?
When I called you Alan you said it was Andy.
Now you're called Alan.  I'm confused.
Not that it matters.
Just keep picking winners.
 
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Posted: #12
Spieth finish 9th or better
Johnson finish 9th or better
Rose finish 13th or better
Mickelson finish 17th or better

JB Holmes over DA Points RD 1
Mickelson over Kaufman RD 1
Reed over Perez RD 1
Rose over MacKenzie RD 1

laid alot of juice on those round 1 matchups but unless something drastic happens I don't see them losing especially since none of them are playing Spyglass round 1. 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Sherms:

To win:
Dustin Johnson +700
Justin Rose +950
Jim Furyk +4000

I know Furyk is a long shot but he knows how to play on Poa Annua grass, taking a shot.

Tournament matchups:

Johnson over Day
Rose over Snedeker 
Furyk over Laird

Looking to add some more + obviously play round matchups when lines released. 

For what this is worth...

I don't bet outright winners.  Never have.  The math doesn't make sense to me.  I'm going to use your picks as an example, so forgive me.  Here we go:

Let's say you bet 1 unit for every outright winner...

You bet Dustin at 7-1 every tournament he's in this year.  Last year he played in 23 tournaments.  And he won 3 of them.  If you bet that every tournament, you would come out losing money.

And then let's add in that you bet Rose and Furyk every week along with the Dustin outright winner bet. Dustin's odds when he wins those tournaments go down to 5-1 every week because you would lose 2 units from the Rose and Furyk's bets.

So betting Dustin to win every tournament anything less than 12-1 over the course of the year is a bad bet, and the books aren't going to give us those odds.

Last year Justin Rose only won 1 tournament (the Olympics), so betting him at 9-1 would be a losing bet all year.  

Even if you bet Furyk every tournament at 40-1 this year, and he wins 1...that's a nice payday, but you actually only get him at 38-1 because of the units loss from Rose and DJ.  

So add that together...Dustin gets you 3 wins at 5-1...Furyk gets you 1 win at 38-1...that comes out to 53 units profit.  Sound great, right?

Until you add in that 

Rose played in 19 tourneys last year (minus 1 win)...thats 18

Dustin in 23 (minus 3 wins)...that's 20

Furyk in 14 tournaments (no wins)...that's 14

That's 52 losses...and 53 wins.  That will get you 1 unit profit all year long.  And that's with me assuming Furyk gets a win, which he didn't this year.  Take away Furyk's win...and that comes out to a 39 unit loss.

I just don't see the value in betting winners.  And if you do bet winners, I like the strategy of picking someone that is 40-1 or worse that you think can win a tournament this year...and betting that guy and that guy only each tourney he plays in.  Even then I just don't see the long term value.

Either way, I hope one of those guys (Furyk for your sake) wins this week.  GL 








 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

Thanks Andy?  Alan?  Which one is it?
When I called you Alan you said it was Andy.
Now you're called Alan.  I'm confused.
Not that it matters.
Just keep picking winners.

Just to clear it up once and for all...my name is Andy.  Everyone on covers started calling me Alan, and for whatever reason I never corrected anyone.  I guess I just figured it wasn't a big deal.  

But yes...my name is Andy.  
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


For what this is worth...

I don't bet outright winners.  Never have.  The math doesn't make sense to me.  I'm going to use your picks as an example, so forgive me.  Here we go:

Let's say you bet 1 unit for every outright winner...

You bet Dustin at 7-1 every tournament he's in this year.  Last year he played in 23 tournaments.  And he won 3 of them.  If you bet that every tournament, you would come out losing money.

And then let's add in that you bet Rose and Furyk every week along with the Dustin outright winner bet. Dustin's odds when he wins those tournaments go down to 5-1 every week because you would lose 2 units from the Rose and Furyk's bets.

So betting Dustin to win every tournament anything less than 12-1 over the course of the year is a bad bet, and the books aren't going to give us those odds.

Last year Justin Rose only won 1 tournament (the Olympics), so betting him at 9-1 would be a losing bet all year.  

Even if you bet Furyk every tournament at 40-1 this year, and he wins 1...that's a nice payday, but you actually only get him at 38-1 because of the units loss from Rose and DJ.  

So add that together...Dustin gets you 3 wins at 5-1...Furyk gets you 1 win at 38-1...that comes out to 53 units profit.  Sound great, right?

Until you add in that 

Rose played in 19 tourneys last year (minus 1 win)...thats 18

Dustin in 23 (minus 3 wins)...that's 20

Furyk in 14 tournaments (no wins)...that's 14

That's 52 losses...and 53 wins.  That will get you 1 unit profit all year long.  And that's with me assuming Furyk gets a win, which he didn't this year.  Take away Furyk's win...and that comes out to a 39 unit loss.

I just don't see the value in betting winners.  And if you do bet winners, I like the strategy of picking someone that is 40-1 or worse that you think can win a tournament this year...and betting that guy and that guy only each tourney he plays in.  Even then I just don't see the long term value.

Either way, I hope one of those guys (Furyk for your sake) wins this week.  GL 











Thanks for the feedback. My to win wagers are a lot smaller than my tournament/round matchups they are just for fun and first time I've done them for a tournament. I get what you're saying though, makes sense. thanks 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

I don't understand what the deal is with 5Dimes putting matchups up, and then taking them down.  At noon EST yesterday they had tons of matchups, I studied them and then a few hours later they were gone.  Same thing happened last night.  I don't get it... 


They want button clickers not thought processes and studying.
 
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Posted: #17
What are the limits at 5Dimes for these 72 holes h2h? I somehow always assumed they're kind of shitty, considering how bad they are at it.

Not really sure if it's going to be playable at all today, you should take a look at Finau and Holmes on twitter trying to reach 105y downhill hole with 6 irons...

Pinnacle has O'Hair paired with Piercy and Laird with Furyk, both are highest evroi this week by significant margin (I'll be taking O'Hair now few times, so odds will be bit worse and will wait public to take Furyk until I get +money on Laird)

Will also have Spieth in his match-ups and Reed in his. Walker at +160 against Kuchar is also crazy value.

Good job on your picks by the way, like them all. Good luck!
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Ningishzida:

What are the limits at 5Dimes for these 72 holes h2h? I somehow always assumed they're kind of shitty, considering how bad they are at it.

Not really sure if it's going to be playable at all today, you should take a look at Finau and Holmes on twitter trying to reach 105y downhill hole with 6 irons...

Pinnacle has O'Hair paired with Piercy and Laird with Furyk, both are highest evroi this week by significant margin (I'll be taking O'Hair now few times, so odds will be bit worse and will wait public to take Furyk until I get +money on Laird)

Will also have Spieth in his match-ups and Reed in his. Walker at +160 against Kuchar is also crazy value.

Good job on your picks by the way, like them all. Good luck!

Limits at dimes are 500.

And yes, the weather conditions will make this tourney fun/wonky. 

I made a vow last year to never bet on/against Walker.  I can never figure that guy out 

I love Laird this week.  Didn't pull the trigger on him in anything, but I support anyone that did.  GL brother 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:


Limits at dimes are 500.

And yes, the weather conditions will make this tourney fun/wonky. 

I made a vow last year to never bet on/against Walker.  I can never figure that guy out 

I love Laird this week.  Didn't pull the trigger on him in anything, but I support anyone that did.  GL brother 


Can you take 500 unlimited times after they adjust odds, or not?

Of course that there's no person in the world that can figure Jimmy out, but driving accuracy and scrambling (stats that Kuchar has significant edge) won't matter this week that much.

Because of wind, but mostly because missing fairways is really no big deal on these courses. They usually don't want all these celebs to take like 5 shots trying to get outside of rough, so scrambling % should be really high in normal conditions.

On the other hand, Jimmy has pretty much elite course history here which only confirms that, and he's generally playing very well on west coast. Personally, I'd probably take him at +120, +160 is just crazy.
 
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Posted: #20
I believe the 500 limit resets on line movement.  
 
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Posted: #21
In the group David Duval is in, is he the Pro or the Am?
 
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Posted: #22
Do we know how they are going to proceed with finishing round 1 since it got rained out?

I won my Holmes Round 1 pick, Mickelson is a win but needs to finish last hole, Rose is up 2 and Reed is down to last hole... they're all still pending aside Holmes, anyone know how books are going about grading this?
 
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Posted: #23
Rose 2 down???
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Blb:

Rose 2 down???

I have no clue what Justin Rose's score is.  Apparently, PGA doesn't either.
 
 
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Posted: #25
I have to agree with ANDY on betting for winners.   

Best way to make money in golf is matchups!

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