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    All Forums | Pro Golf

    Masters Matchup: Max bet based on history

    sacker17
    alangrrbs
    PuttForeDough
    ponymd
    DrtySanchez
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    Search
    Views: 989
    Posts: 11
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2018 - 5:14 PM ET #1

    Trevor Immelman -115 v Harry Ellis (British Amateur Champion)
    Here is a history lesson...there have been 30 British Amateur Champions who have played the Masters. 
    Of the 30, 27 have MC.  The 3 that didn't were Sergio, Mannasero and Langasque.  Best finish was Mannasero T36 (2010) 
    Of the 30 they are a combined +360 over par.
    Of the 30 their average round 1 score is 81.5
    Their average round 2 score goes down to 77.5
    Harry will not be feeling very comfortable at Augusta

    I know Immelman isn't good anymore, but he isn't terrible.
    He has been playing better lately.
    His last event he made the cut at Punta Cana on PGA tour.
    And his last Eurotour event in last week of January at Omega Dunai Desert Classic he was pretty good at -12 T32.
    He is a past winner of the Green Jacket.
    As a past winner he has come back and played this most every year since.
    He will be comfortable here.

    I'm gonna take a shot and hope that Harry is the usual no shot British Amateur Champion.  Hopefully Harry doesn't surprise me.
    I'm figuring they both MC but Immelman is better.

    All thoughts welcome.
    Good luck 

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Trevor Immelman -115 v Harry Ellis (British Amateur Champion)
    Here is a history lesson...there have been 30 British Amateur Champions who have played the Masters. 
    Of the 30, 27 have MC.  The 3 that didn't were Sergio, Mannasero and Langasque.  Best finish was Mannasero T36 (2010) 
    Of the 30 they are a combined +360 over par.
    Of the 30 their average round 1 score is 81.5
    Their average round 2 score goes down to 77.5
    Harry will not be feeling very comfortable at Augusta

    I know Immelman isn't good anymore, but he isn't terrible.
    He has been playing better lately.
    His last event he made the cut at Punta Cana on PGA tour.
    And his last Eurotour event in last week of January at Omega Dunai Desert Classic he was pretty good at -12 T32.
    He is a past winner of the Green Jacket.
    As a past winner he has come back and played this most every year since.
    He will be comfortable here.

    I'm gonna take a shot and hope that Harry is the usual no shot British Amateur Champion.  Hopefully Harry doesn't surprise me.
    I'm figuring they both MC but Immelman is better.

    All thoughts welcome.
    Good luck 

     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2018 - 5:19 PM ET #2

    LMAO.  This is my favorite bet posted so far this year.  Well done Sacker!!!  
    Reply
    LMAO.  This is my favorite bet posted so far this year.  Well done Sacker!!!  
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posts: 1595
    Posted: Apr. 3, 2018 - 5:36 PM ET #3

    What's especially scary about betting ON Immelman is that 2 years ago at an HSBC Outing at Winged Foot, Immelman was the guest.
    He sat the entire day at a par 3 and played the hole with EVERY group that came through.
    I put it on the green and he sprayed his tee shot to the right bunker.
    And I suck!

    I'm counting on Ellis playing lousy like the 90% of prior British Amateur Champs.  
    Avg score RD1 81.5
    Avg score Rd2  77.5
    That's a lot over par
    Reply
    What's especially scary about betting ON Immelman is that 2 years ago at an HSBC Outing at Winged Foot, Immelman was the guest.
    He sat the entire day at a par 3 and played the hole with EVERY group that came through.
    I put it on the green and he sprayed his tee shot to the right bunker.
    And I suck!

    I'm counting on Ellis playing lousy like the 90% of prior British Amateur Champs.  
    Avg score RD1 81.5
    Avg score Rd2  77.5
    That's a lot over par
     
    PuttForeDough
    PuttForeDough
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    Posts: 752
    Posted: Apr. 3, 2018 - 5:48 PM ET #4

    Tailing just because...  
    Reply
    Tailing just because...  
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Apr. 3, 2018 - 5:56 PM ET #5

    I also played the following

    Casey -125 v Rahm. Don't think Rahm type of course.  casey steady good.

    Bubba plus money v Rahm (+105); Fowler (+110) and less so against Casey (+120).  Bubba playing great and loves this place

    Spieth -115 v DJ  Spieth so comfortable here and played well last week.  DJ not the same DJ as last year

    Henley -110 v Moore.  Henley a Georgia guy.  Small play

    Hoffman -120 v Harman.  Hoff plays well here.  Last 3 years T22;T29;T5

    Kuchar -130 v Fleetwood.  Kuchar a Georgia guy who plays great here! 4 times in Top 8 here the last 6 years!  Geez, I think I need to put more on Kuch who played great in Houston last week.

    Vegas -170 v Willet.  Free money.  Willet stinks and w/d last event with back injury.  small play.  Too risky

    Kizzire -115 v Kaymer.  Kaymer was lousy MC last out coming back from injury.  But Kizzire a wildcard.  Small play

    Zach -125 v Smith and +115 v Chappell.  Small plays.  Zach a Green Jacket winner plays well here

    That's alot of action





    Reply
    I also played the following

    Casey -125 v Rahm. Don't think Rahm type of course.  casey steady good.

    Bubba plus money v Rahm (+105); Fowler (+110) and less so against Casey (+120).  Bubba playing great and loves this place

    Spieth -115 v DJ  Spieth so comfortable here and played well last week.  DJ not the same DJ as last year

    Henley -110 v Moore.  Henley a Georgia guy.  Small play

    Hoffman -120 v Harman.  Hoff plays well here.  Last 3 years T22;T29;T5

    Kuchar -130 v Fleetwood.  Kuchar a Georgia guy who plays great here! 4 times in Top 8 here the last 6 years!  Geez, I think I need to put more on Kuch who played great in Houston last week.

    Vegas -170 v Willet.  Free money.  Willet stinks and w/d last event with back injury.  small play.  Too risky

    Kizzire -115 v Kaymer.  Kaymer was lousy MC last out coming back from injury.  But Kizzire a wildcard.  Small play

    Zach -125 v Smith and +115 v Chappell.  Small plays.  Zach a Green Jacket winner plays well here

    That's alot of action





     
    ponymd
    ponymd
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    Posted: Apr. 5, 2018 - 1:25 PM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

    Posted: Apr. 3, 2018 - 6:14 PM ET "Quote" Trevor Immelman -115 v Harry Ellis (British Amateur Champion)Here is a history lesson...there have been 30 British Amateur Champions who have played the Masters. Of the 30, 27 have MC.  The 3 that didn't were Sergio, Mannasero and Langasque.  Best finish was Mannasero T36 (2010) Of the 30 they are a combined +360 over par.Of the 30 their average round 1 score is 81.5Their average round 2 score goes down to 77.5Harry will not be feeling very comfortable at AugustaI know Immelman isn't good anymore, but he isn't terrible.He has been playing better lately.His last event he made the cut at Punta Cana on PGA tour.And his last Eurotour event in last week of January at Omega Dunai Desert Classic he was pretty good at -12 T32.He is a past winner of the Green Jacket.As a past winner he has come back and played this most every year since.He will be comfortable here.I'm gonna take a shot and hope that Harry is the usual no shot British Amateur Champion.  Hopefully Harry doesn't surprise me.I'm figuring they both MC but Immelman is better.All thoughts welcome.Good luck

     

     

     

     

    Ellis +11 through 13 lol

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by sacker17:

    Posted: Apr. 3, 2018 - 6:14 PM ET "Quote" Trevor Immelman -115 v Harry Ellis (British Amateur Champion)Here is a history lesson...there have been 30 British Amateur Champions who have played the Masters. Of the 30, 27 have MC.  The 3 that didn't were Sergio, Mannasero and Langasque.  Best finish was Mannasero T36 (2010) Of the 30 they are a combined +360 over par.Of the 30 their average round 1 score is 81.5Their average round 2 score goes down to 77.5Harry will not be feeling very comfortable at AugustaI know Immelman isn't good anymore, but he isn't terrible.He has been playing better lately.His last event he made the cut at Punta Cana on PGA tour.And his last Eurotour event in last week of January at Omega Dunai Desert Classic he was pretty good at -12 T32.He is a past winner of the Green Jacket.As a past winner he has come back and played this most every year since.He will be comfortable here.I'm gonna take a shot and hope that Harry is the usual no shot British Amateur Champion.  Hopefully Harry doesn't surprise me.I'm figuring they both MC but Immelman is better.All thoughts welcome.Good luck

     

     

     

     

    Ellis +11 through 13 lol

     
    DrtySanchez
    DrtySanchez
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    Posted: Apr. 6, 2018 - 12:30 AM ET #7

    Good call on Immelman vs Ellis

    Reply

    Good call on Immelman vs Ellis

     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posts: 1595
    Posted: Apr. 6, 2018 - 7:36 AM ET #8

    Thanks fellas but it ain’t over till it’s over. One of my favorite movies “The Gambler”with James Caan as the degenerate gambler had a scene where Caan was winning big at Halftime and stopped watching only to be woken up the next morning by his bookie there to collect. He told Caan “they don’t pay off at halftime Axel”

    Andy and I hit the RD1 play on this one which in retrospect I should’ve also posted. Lots of books didn’t have a RD1 line on this one but 5dimes did. History had the RD1 score avg 81.5. 
    Nerves should settle a little for Ellis RD2 and I guess that’s why RD2 history is avg score 77.5. If Immelmann can shoot 79 Ellis would have to break par to beat us. And although Immelman has MC here past 4 years he has no 80 scores. 
    Reply
    Thanks fellas but it ain’t over till it’s over. One of my favorite movies “The Gambler”with James Caan as the degenerate gambler had a scene where Caan was winning big at Halftime and stopped watching only to be woken up the next morning by his bookie there to collect. He told Caan “they don’t pay off at halftime Axel”

    Andy and I hit the RD1 play on this one which in retrospect I should’ve also posted. Lots of books didn’t have a RD1 line on this one but 5dimes did. History had the RD1 score avg 81.5. 
    Nerves should settle a little for Ellis RD2 and I guess that’s why RD2 history is avg score 77.5. If Immelmann can shoot 79 Ellis would have to break par to beat us. And although Immelman has MC here past 4 years he has no 80 scores. 
     
    DrtySanchez
    DrtySanchez
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    Posted: Apr. 6, 2018 - 9:14 AM ET #9

    I'm taking Marco over Ellis today, with your theory on British Am winner.  GL

    Reply

    I'm taking Marco over Ellis today, with your theory on British Am winner.  GL

     
    alangrrbs
    alangrrbs
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    Posted: Apr. 6, 2018 - 10:18 PM ET #10

    Sacker...

    This is so far the call/bet of the year.  So obscure, so well re-searched, so hilarious...and never in doubt from Ellis's first hole.  Fantastic!
    Reply
    Sacker...

    This is so far the call/bet of the year.  So obscure, so well re-searched, so hilarious...and never in doubt from Ellis's first hole.  Fantastic!
     
     
    sacker17
    sacker17
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    Posted: Apr. 7, 2018 - 8:52 AM ET #11

    Dirty
    Ellis +8 rd2 (he did improve 6 strokes; history said 4). 
    Brutal loss RD2 with O’Meara +9. I thought about that one and almost joined u but didn’t trust O’Meara especially at -135. Hope u hit the Immelman bet good. 

    Andy thx. We all need to file this bet away till next year. Giving us Immelman was a gift. He still plays on PGA tour and has been better lately. They could have give us a senior or an amateur. But one thing for sure, the British Amateur Champion is a bet against. Now 3/31 in cuts made and a combined +382 over par. 
    Reply
    Dirty
    Ellis +8 rd2 (he did improve 6 strokes; history said 4). 
    Brutal loss RD2 with O’Meara +9. I thought about that one and almost joined u but didn’t trust O’Meara especially at -135. Hope u hit the Immelman bet good. 

    Andy thx. We all need to file this bet away till next year. Giving us Immelman was a gift. He still plays on PGA tour and has been better lately. They could have give us a senior or an amateur. But one thing for sure, the British Amateur Champion is a bet against. Now 3/31 in cuts made and a combined +382 over par. 
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