John Deere Classic

Put 1 in early. Write up later but relatively similar course to this past week at rocket

Emiliano Grillo (65-1)

Lucas Glover (45-1)

These are all locked in, will be back to add 

Outrights:

Lucas Glover (45-1)

Emiliano Grillo (65-1)

Matt McCarty (80-1)

Top 10 (ties included):

Lucas Glover (+450)

Top 20 (ties included):

Lucas Glover (+210)

Emiliano Grillo (+250)

Matt McCarty (+320)

@Rollz

Brutal weekend sir, let’s get em this week,

Thoughts on Nico?

The tour is headed to yet another bland birdie fest at TPC Deere Run in Illinois. While the course is easy on the eyes when presented on TV, the actual golf wont be much different from what we saw last week with a winning score likely greater than 20 under par. The John Deere Classic has been held here since 2000 so we have a lot of past results and data to reference. Deere run is a short par 71 measuring out at 7,289 yards that is defined by its wide fairways, subtle elevation changes, thick bluegrass rough, and incredibly simple green complexes. While I am far from excited for this event and absolutely looking ahead to the next couple weeks where we get a really good stretch of golf, I still think there is value to be had on the board this week. Ill detail below how players will be able to separate at this venue.

Off the tee play was pretty much nullified last week with almost no missed fairway penalty, while this week wont be substantially different I do think you can certainly get into trouble when missing fairways this week. With that said these are very wide, generous fairways but when missing them you will find yourself in some thick rough and poor angles into greens. Deere run does have some doglegs, bunkering, and is tree-lined which should have these players much more inclined to find fairways rather than bombing away with reckless abandon like we saw at rocket. We have consistently seen fairway finders have a ton of success here with names like JT Poston, Lucas Glover, Steve Stricker, Sepp Straka, Ryan Moore, and Zach Johnson all having high end finishes/wins here. This is a big sample size of accurate off the tee players showing the ability to separate. This is certainly something I want to see in players that I am backing this week, but is not absolutely imperative due to how wide these fairways are. 

This will be another week of a ton of wedges into greens. Virtually all pga tour players can hit their wedges well, which does decrease the importance of approach play in general in my opinion. Even so I will be looking at players who are in form on approach and have a long history of proximity success from 75-150 yards. I don't really have much to add in terms of approach play as there is just not much nuance in that regard this week, or at all for that matter. In form approach players would be my primary focus within this particular area. 

Around the green play is not really a focus of mine this week as we should get a high greens in regulation percentage. Just like last week, if you are consistently missing greens and having to get up and down often you are already dead. Very small weight for me in this regard this week. Meanwhile, You are going to have to carry a hot putter this week if you want to contend to win. These are very simple bentgrass greens that wont be fooling anybody, even the worst putters on tour. I will be looking for players with long term success on bentgrass green complexes. Ill also take a look at players who are carrying a hot putter coming into this event. Keep in mind that poor putters have had a lot of success here which speaks to just how easy these greens are and just how difficult it is to predict putting outcomes.

Overall the ideal player here is accurate off the tee, in form on approach, and can get white hot with the putter. Other areas that I will be factoring into my modeling include past success in easy scoring conditions, birdie or better percentage in the past 6 months, course history, and comp course history such as detroit golf club and tpc river highlands (the last 2 events). Thats pretty much all Ive got its a super simple golf course and an extremely boring handicap lol. Will be back in here throughout the week 

Man, im still recovering from that it was a hard watch down the stretch lol. 

Im not sure if i personally will get there on Nico but i certainly understand it. Hes decent at everything im looking for this week. Accurate off the tee, has been spiking on approach recently, and is top 17 in both long term and recent putting when i modeled it out. Wouldn't blame you for taking a shot on him this week