Honda

Berger -130 v Im
Berger grew up down the road from the Honda event and it showed in his very first appearance at this event in 2015 when he lost in a playoff to Padraig Harrington
Last year he finished 4th here.
In between nothing great but Berger is playing the best most consistent golf of his life right now.
Last 6 events he has 4 Top 10s
Berger has been consistently good and just a bit better than Im.
A few weeks ago I was watching the golf and they mentioned that Berger was 1 of 3 guys who had a streak of par or better every round this year. Since then the streak has been broken but he has been so solid and finished strong at the Players last week.

Im did win this last year where Berger was 4th and Im is a very consistent good player who is a Top 25 machine
Last 6 events none worse than T32
Last 8 events 5 Top 21
The thing is last 7 events ZERO Top 10 finishes for Im.

As I mentioned Berger grew up nearby and has played well here before with 2 top 4 finishes in 6 starts bookending his 1st start (2015) 2nd with a 4th last year.
In between he dealt with a wrist injury for some time and hadn't been able to play his best golf. Now that he is sharp I just feel he is a cut above Im.

It is supposed to be windy this week as it often can be in Florida and I also think that Berger is used to the
Conditions having grown up in Florida.

Finally I like the edge in pairings as Berger is paired with Bradley and Westwood who are both playing well, while Im is paired with Fowler and Mitchell, both of whom I expect to hack it up.
Sometimes playing sports you get brought down to the level of the guys you are playing with so I think that's a plus too.

WARNING

Damn a fellow member who I respect on this forum just texted me that he too loved Berger this week but saw a news flash that Berger is dealing with a rib injury and had a MRI Monday and will have a press conference later today.  Berger was quoted as saying that he “dealt with it at the Players and was surprised he was able to play all 4 days at the Players”

I already bet but will follow it loosely and consider my options (maybe hedge out and eat vig) 

I just hedged out
Bet Im +110

suggest same to anyone who followed but can’t be many as I posted the warning within 19 minutes of the original post and there weren’t many views in that short time

Hope Berger w/d and if he doesn’t I’ll just root for Berger to break even on the bet
Too much risk here

Im is no stiff
Berger needs to be 100% to make this bet and he clearly is not
Huge risk he tries to play and then w/d as Masters is right around the corner and he will delay his recovery by trying to play. A rib injury is a serious injury to a golfer swing

I was about to mention that. Maybe prior to hedging you could have waited for his interview today. Maybe he says it ain´t that serious. The guy had an MRI on Monday and has not withdrawn. If it were serious I would have expected him to withdraw. 

That interview should be uploaded at this site later today: https://asaptext.com/orgs/pgatour/1220/

**I found particularly interesting the interview with Lee Westwood, who is a guy I was considering despite how inflated his line was. After checking that, Im gonna stay miles away from him. 

Ya just announced Berger WD.

Westwood a sizeable underdog in a lot of matchups this week despite how well he is playing. But as he mentioned in that interview, has to be a bit mentally and physically drained after being in the hunt b2b weeks.

Gut and Panther

yes Berger withdrew and that’s good.

The hedge was the smart thing for me to do as no way I wanted to lay -130 to a good player like Im if my guy is saying he didn’t think he’d make it through all 4 rounds at the Players.  Rather take a small loss than sit in that bet with the further risk that he might tweak it on the next swing and withdraw.  With the Masters coming up I am not surprised Berger withdrew.  Anybody that has played sports at any level knows that a rib injury will cripple your swing or throws and playing through it will only make it worse and lengthen your recovery. 

gonna look to some other matchups and be back

Panther wish I had some of your matchups but my guy doesn’t have them

thanks guys

I have Westwood-115 over Keegan 

Rd1

Bradley -125 Westwood 

bradley seems to always play well Rd1 and as the boys mentioned Westwood is spent physically and emotionally 

Bradley has been good lately and usually is on this Florida swing 

I had watched an interview with Westwood a few months ago and he mentioned his workouts and his troublesome back issues and he said that it flares up when he plays a bunch of weeks in a row which is where we are at now

Ive been playing Bradley Rd1 with success and will try it again

@panthersrams

What surprised me of Westwood today is that despite Berger withdrawing I found him @26.0 odds. If Im not wrong he had opened @22.0 

I know there is a huge chance that he regresses badly this week, but if he keeps playing his irons and the putter somewhat similar to the way he has the last 2 weeks,(maybe sligthly worse will still do it)  he should win this. He lost against the creme de la creme of the tour the last 2 sundays. 

So its a thing of course history + recent form vs appearing to be non prepared and wasting 2 full days going to Augusta and playing 54 holes there. Given that golf is not exactly the sport where stamina matters the most, I had to bite on that line. 

Gut

i get the play but I think Westwood regresses this week against Bradley (Rd1 Beast) play which did win.  I bet it -125 and it went to -115 but Bradley always seems to play well Rd1 and it hit again 

Anyway let’s keep it going

RD4 

2 plays

Higgs +100 v Streelman
Higgs couldn't make a putt rd3 at -4.59 but hit 72% greens and has hit 70+% greens for the week

Streelman hitting only 57% greens for the week but is hanging in by putting +5.2 strokes for the week
Higgs is -3.04 putting for the week so was plus putting before awful rd3

Course history here Streelman just doesn't play well here
Last 2 years was 47/71 and before that hadn't played here since 2013 when he finished 41/MC/63/MC in 4 straight years. Seems he took off after 2013 as this course just doesn't fit him and this year not lighting it up
Higgs is young and a far fuck but he seems to like it here. Last year he was 58th in 1st try and was playing well this year after 2 rounds until yesterday when his putter failed him
Still he is hitting way more greens than Streelman (70% -57%) and last week at the Players Higgs finished 29th and Streelman MC

I'll take Higgs +100 rd4

Play 2
Davis -125 v Hadwin
Davis was 8th here last year and 59th year before in his 1st try here
Hadwin has played here 2x and not since 2016 when he MC and 2015 was 31st
Davis looks on track to finish good here again at T18 and is hitting 70% greens to Hadwin 65% but Hadwin is putting well at +5.96 to +2.05