What is a golf betting ladder? Betting on a player to have a Top 40, Top 20 and Top 10 finish position in an event. Having a Top 40 finish gets us a breakeven (or close) on all bets and a Top 20 or 10 gives us a profit (since we win all or most bets).
Why bet these? A large number of top and mid-tier players have left the PGA Tour for LIV Golf. This has provided a huge opportunity for the remaining mid to lower tier players to get some decent finishes. The 4 events so far in 2024 had winners who were considered long shots pre-tournament. Outside of the top 15 players on the PGA Tour, the betting markets are much less efficient than in prior years. Frankly, I’d much rather bet on finish position and have a good sweat on the weekend and more consistent returns (hopefully) than picking an outright win.
How does it work each week? I’ll pick 3-6 players per event that range from Top 40 favorites to longer odds players. I’ll use $35 a bet ($20 Top40, $10 Top20, $5 Top10) and bet365 odds for illustrative purposes to be consistent. Players are chosen using a monte carlo simulation that factors in a players scoring average (adj for course difficulty) and standard deviation over 20+ events. I’ve found this method does a good job in highlighting strong mid to lower tier players vs the standard course fit, recent form and various shots gained stats that a lot of golf handicappers use.
I’ll post all plays, on this thread, starting next week (tues,wed) for The WM Phoenix Open drunkfest.
GL
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What is a golf betting ladder? Betting on a player to have a Top 40, Top 20 and Top 10 finish position in an event. Having a Top 40 finish gets us a breakeven (or close) on all bets and a Top 20 or 10 gives us a profit (since we win all or most bets).
Why bet these? A large number of top and mid-tier players have left the PGA Tour for LIV Golf. This has provided a huge opportunity for the remaining mid to lower tier players to get some decent finishes. The 4 events so far in 2024 had winners who were considered long shots pre-tournament. Outside of the top 15 players on the PGA Tour, the betting markets are much less efficient than in prior years. Frankly, I’d much rather bet on finish position and have a good sweat on the weekend and more consistent returns (hopefully) than picking an outright win.
How does it work each week? I’ll pick 3-6 players per event that range from Top 40 favorites to longer odds players. I’ll use $35 a bet ($20 Top40, $10 Top20, $5 Top10) and bet365 odds for illustrative purposes to be consistent. Players are chosen using a monte carlo simulation that factors in a players scoring average (adj for course difficulty) and standard deviation over 20+ events. I’ve found this method does a good job in highlighting strong mid to lower tier players vs the standard course fit, recent form and various shots gained stats that a lot of golf handicappers use.
I’ll post all plays, on this thread, starting next week (tues,wed) for The WM Phoenix Open drunkfest.
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