Pumped for this week in Scotland! I’ll likely have a write-up up by tomorrow but wanted to go ahead and put 1 in.
Hoping I am the Thomas Detry whisperer as I hit him outright in Pheonix earlier this year, but this is a great spot for him and it seems he’s starting to come back around. At 80-1 I’ll gladly bite.
Thomas Detry (80-1)
The pga tour is heading across the pond for one of the better non-major events of the year in my opinion. This event is held in North Berwick, Scotland at the Renaissance club which is a links style course with some American style features designed by Tom Doak. This is a par 70 golf course that measures out at 7,237 yds which is pretty long for a par 70. The primary defenses of the renaissance club include inclement weather depending on the day due to being right off the coastline, some difficult pot bunkers as you typically see on links courses, the overall length of the golf course, and large, difficult green complexes that have a lot of character as you’ll often see on Doak designs. This should be a breath of fresh air following a few straight weeks of bland, birdie fests that offer no resistance for these guys whatsoever. I’ll detail below what I’m looking at for the players I’m backing this week.
This is a long, driver heavy golf courses that will have these guys consistently pulling out the big stick. Missing fairways is not a death sentence by any means, although the fescue areas off the fairways can be a bit random and cause some issues at times. Nonetheless, I think you want players that can launch it off the tee above all else as the missed fairway penalty is generally low and will allow for shorter approaches into these greens. This is not to say you have to be long to have success here, but players that are long off the tee should have the edge. We’ve seen bigger hitters consistently have high end finishes here in Robert Macintyre, Rory Mcllroy, Adam Scott, Wyndham Clark, Thomas Detry, Byeong Hun An, the list goes on.. There’s a big enough sample of this that we can firmly target players with length off the tee with confidence.
Approach play has historically been slightly devalued at the renaissance club contrary to most pga tour venues. This may be due to the fact that we do see weather here typically, and even the best approach players will have a hard time capitalizing with the irons in these kind of conditions given the long approaches and tricky greens. With that said, we will see a bunch of approaches from 175+ yards into difficult green complexes. The best long players should have a bit of an edge, but this is not my primary focus this week. I’ll take a slight lean to good long term long iron players and guys that are in form on approach. It may be wise to take a look at players who have historically gained strokes on approach in windy conditions, which is a handy filter that you can use on the rabbit hole modeling software through betsperts golf.
Continued…
The green side surrounds are primarily short grass and the level of difficulty of chip shots is pretty low. You will also see a lot of players utilize the Texas wedge, pulling putter from off the green. This effectively decreases the importance of around the green play and that will be reflected in my modeling with a lower weight than usual in that regard. With around the green play devalued, I will have an extra emphasis on putting. I’ve mentioned multiple times already that these are really tricky green complexes that are very well designed. These are also some of the slower greens that we see on the pga tour which likely throws some of these players off, especially in windy conditions. These are large greens which will increase the importance of 3 putt avoidance and putting as a whole. I want good long-term putters here, and players that have had success putting on links courses as these type of conditions certainly plays a factor on the greens as well.
Ultimately I’m targeting players that are long off the tee, good long iron players, and elite putters. In terms of comp courses looking at players that have had success here and in open championships is a great start. I think there are some US open venues that are useful to look at as well, oakmont and LACC being the ones that come to mind. Unfortunately being across the pond you really need to pay attention to weather. Tee times will be super interesting to look at as we often get critical wave edges in these conditions. This is why I’m going to try my best to hold off on the rest of my wagers rather than chasing value/CLV. Should be a fun one!
Trending toward a big card this week, just like a lot of these guys down the board. Here’s everything in so far, will be back
Outrights:
Ludvig Aberg (30-1)
Matt Fitzpatrick (45-1)
Thomas Detry (80-1)
Max Greyserman (90-1)
Victor Perez (140-1)
Top 20 (ties included):
Matt Fitzpatrick (+160)
Ryan Fox (+225)
Max Greyserman (+270)
Thomas Detry (+300)
Viktor Perez (+370)
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