Dell Match Play

Played
JT -200 v Kuchar (now -220)
Na -125 v Macintyre
Spieth -105 v Fitzpatrick (now -110)

Kuchar sucks and JT is an assassin

Home game for Spieth who is in good form and has played well here in the past 
Na seems to play good here and Macintyre hasn't performed yet in US on PGA tour

Your thoughts ?

Sorry sacker, just saw this and Panther´s posts. 

I know Kuchar sucks but -200 is way too much for me. I understand that JT does not have a very solid match play record. 

Unfortunately I dont track the European Tour so I cant say anything about the Na matchup. 

I love Spieth. Before looking at the winner odds I was certain that I would end up betting Spieth to take it all. But with that line I could not. This course suits him perfectly since the only thing that he is having issues with now is the accuracy with the driver. And that flaw does not matter much here. I have him in that matchup as well. 

 BOL!

Gut

Betting against Kuchar, Fowler, Stenson has been a cash train.  But you are right that laying -200 in a single round is extremely risky as I have gotten hurt with that in the past.  I guess for me I’m just gonna keep betting against Kuchar and the others unless and until they get better.

Macintyre was the EuropeanTour Rookie of the Year last year and was playing very well in Europe before coming here 3 weeks ago.  He had moved up to 23 in OWGR which is amazing for such a young player.

However he was very disappointing in his 3 Florida starts and Na has played well here in the match play

On the Na play. Kuchar has a solid track record here but is struggling lately so Thomas a worthy favorite there. May be one to tie in with another chalk play, just never like laying -200+ on a matchup. Spieth v Fitz should be a good match - likely come down to whose putter is hotter.

BOL

Rd1 no good.  JT awful and Kuchar made putts and never had pressure.  Bad bet to lay -200.  Spieth easily beat Fitz but Na lost to Macintyre who made 2 eagles on back 9 with 2 holeouts and a 32’ bird

Rd2 playing Sergio large -115 v Hatton

Sergio only played 15 holes
Hatton played all 18

Sergio had 8 birdie putts within 15'
6 within 9'
5 within 6'

Hatton 1 birdie putt within 15'
0 within 14' or less
Couldn't hit his irons close

Sergio was just so much better than Hatton RD1 

Hatton couldn’t hit an iron close

@sacker17

 Thanks. I was about to bet Hatton looking at those 2.0 odds!!

Yup like it, on the Sergio play as well. Good luck today.

Well that was easy

on to rd3. 
let’s find something

Nice analysis of Sergio. Very much appreciated.  Keep it coming. 

Rd3

fitzpatrick -135 v Wolff.  Wolff was spraying the ball all over yesterday.  5 bogeys.  Miracle Spieth didn’t win but Spieth too was bad

berger -130 v English.  English hasn’t been good. 5 birds vs 4 bogeys in 2 rounds.  Rd1 beat Todd by 1 but Todd did nothing and rd2 Van Rooyen ran away from English.  Meanwhile Berger destroyed Van Rooyen Rd1 and yesterday Todd made a lot of putts to edge Berger.  English withdrew 2 weeks ago due to his back and hadnt been playing well up until that time. Nothing this week in 1st 2 rounds makes me think he can beat Berger who is a top player

@sacker17

My 2 best plays rd3 above 

Also like Sergio -180 v Wallace. Wallace was so so bad rd2 with 8 bogeys in 15 holes before being closed out. After my bet Rd1 on JT v Kuchar disaster hate to lay that much but this seems much better than that bet. Kuchar loves this place and JT history here not good. That was a bad bet. Sergio loves this place and Wallace stinks right now. Saw Sergio interview after Rd2 and he said he feels really comfortable here.  Talked about living in the area and marrying Angela a “Texas girl.  He has been so so much better than Wallace so far.  Gonna have to play it but smaller

Lastly I also played Macintyre-125 v Long but smaller.  Macintyre came to US a month ago as a 24 year old star in Europe and was 23 OWGR.  He was EuropeanTour rookie of the year last year.  Stunk in Florida tour but has played well here.  Seems more comfortable and almost beat DJ yesterday (push) while Long lost to DJ Rd1 and beat Na yesterday but Na was awful yesterday and Long made a lot of putts and Rd1 Macintyre beat Na but Na was much better Rd1 than Rd

Btw as bad as Wallace was yesterday he wasnt good Rd1 when he tied Hatton who made only 1 birdie 

On the Berger play. Little pricey on Sergio but he should roll. MacIntrye looking pretty solid so far, interested to see if he can advance.

GL

Adding 1 more.  Was looking at this and it slipped my mind with all the research Andre other plays but this is a play too

thanks to Panther thread for reminding me.  I like his plays too and he and I have been on same page a lot 

Goes off in 10 minutes so get down now

Frittelli -120 v Zalatoris
Frittelli has rolled to easy wins rounds 1&2
He is a U of T grad who was a college teammate of Spieth.
His post rd2 interview revealed a super confident guy who said "at this course I'm very comfortable and know it well. I feel I can beat anyone here".

Zalatoris is a good young player who is 1st time playing in this event.

Big edge Frittelli at short price -120

gl

Rd3 best 2 plays Fitz and Berger win.

Good thing I played Sergio small as he loses at -180

Added play Frittelli loses too

Small profit but day started poorly with Frittelli and Garcia so happy to make profit

Rd of 16

small plays

harman -130 v Bubba

macintyre -105 v Perez

Was gonna lay off today but researching this I’m taking Kuchar +140 v Scheffler

o ly a few minutes left to get back in if you agree

It's either Kuchar or no bet
Kuchar is now 33-10 lifetime here.

Look at the stats
Before yesterday Scheffler stats were Superbad.
Negative strokes off tee
Negative strokes tee to green
Negative strokes approaching green
Negative strokes around green
Negative strokes putting

Realistically it's hard to imagine he made it to round of 16

Yesterday he was better for sure but he made a lot of putts

Kuchar has at least an even chance here so +140 is too much to pass up with a guy who is 33-10 here

Kuchar brutal loss to Scheffler

kuchar made all putts every day except today

TODAY MISSED EVERY PUTT

Longest putt made by Kuchar was 3’6”

gonna bet Scheffler in finals v Horschel