Dell Match Play - Austin CC

March Madness on the links! Unfortunately, datagolf doesn't have strokes gained data for Austin CC - the host for this event since 2016. Be sure to shop around, as you can find noticeable differences among books for the same match.

Round 1 Wednesday (Tie no bet)

Parlay: Dustin Johnson (-220) over Adam Long & Bryson DeChambeau (-238) over Antoine Rozner at (+107) - Pinnacle

- This tournament and Ryder/Presidents Cup are usually the only times I'm willing to parlay chalk. Reason being is it isn't some random matchup selected by the books where each player is playing vs the course. Here, Long and Rozner have to go against 2 of the best players in the world. The intimidation factor elevates. So getting this at plus money was worth a play.

Kevin Na (-130) over Robert MacIntyre - Pinnacle

- As mentioned before, MacIntrye is a solid young player but making his debut in another big tournament. Hasn't done a whole lot so far in his month stateside. Na WD at the Players a bit concerning, but prior to that was playing pretty steady. Made it to the Round of 16 and Round of 8 here in the last 3 years.

Talor Gooch (+147) over Webb Simpson - Pinnacle

- Enough value here to pull the trigger. Gooch a very solid ball striker with a 12th and a 5th in his last 4 starts. Since the move to Austin CC, Webb has not gotten out of the group stage.

Corey Conners (-125) over Matthew Wolff - William Hill

- This line is in the -150 to -160 range at most books but was able to grab this. Conners playing very well right now, with a 3rd at Bay Hill followed by a 7th at the Players. +2.11 Strokes gained T2G at Bay Hill and +1.74 at Sawgrass. Wolff took 3 weeks off after going 64th-WD at Riviera then WGC Florida. Would play this up to -150.

Yea like your plays and I too am on Na

the Anti Wolff play was in my agenda but the line is so damn high and Connors can’t putt.  Wolff seems to be hurt so can’t argue that play but I’m sure u agree if heathy Wolff would be the play. 

the parlay makes sense too

good luck brother

@panthersrams

 I post in all forums of this site. And I have to admit I have rarely found the quality that you give. 

I am on Conners (did not get him at your odds :( ) I have Bryson to win his group, and I also have DJ winning the group. 

There is a very interesting argument that I heard on Bryson which is that, given his length, almost always Bryson will be hitting his approach shot after having seen his opponent´s shot. That is one hell of an advantage for him. 

@sacker17

 Conners putt has woken up recently. Over his last 12 rounds he is 20th of the field... but over his last 8 rounds, which I believe is the tournaments he has played in Florida in bermuda just as this tourney, he is 6th in the field. 

I think he is the dark horse for this tournament. But that group is nasty with Spieth and Fitz

I tailed you on Gooch. Great value finding there

Nothing like a nice o-fer to start the week . Wolff turned it on down the stretch, Gooch was awful from the get-go and MacIntyre's hole out on 13 completely flipped the match.

Oh well, that's match play. May post a couple in the morning if anything jumps out.

Bad Rd1 for me too (1-2) although I had Spieth but laid -200 on JT so it’s like 1-3

take a look at my thread I have a writeup on Sergio. V Hatton rd2

sergio was so much better Rd1 than hatton

Round 2 Thursday (tie no bet)

Brian Harman (-115) over Hideki Matsuyama - William Hill

- Harman probably had the toughest loss on Day 1, making 8 birdies yet ran into a buzzsaw in Cantlay and lost 1 up. Matsuyama wasn't real sharp, losing 4&3 to Ortiz. Harman playing better golf right now and has the advantage on the greens.

Bubba Watson (+121) over Joaquin Niemann - Pinnacle

- Bubba played pretty well yesterday, but let it slip at the end, losing the last 2 to tie with Reed. Niemann halved his match as well, but would have been over par on the day. Worth a play on Bubba at plus money.

Will Zalatoris (+100) over Tony Finau - William Hill

- Zalatoris rallied after being 3 down early only to lose on 18 to Kokrak. Finau got rolled yesterday by Fritelli and I just don't think his game is best suited to this course or match play in general.

Sergio Garcia (-104) over Tyrrell Hatton - Pinnacle

- Sergio played brilliantly yesterday handling Westwood while Hatton only made 1 birdied en route to a tie with Wallace. Definitely think Sergio should be favored here.

Lee Westwood (+106) over Matt Wallace - Pinnacle

- Westwood didn't play poorly yesterday, just ran into a hot Garcia. Similar to Hatton, Wallace could not get much going either yesterday. A price discrepancy here, as Westwood is the -125 chalk on Will Hill, so taking the underdog odds here.

Hopefully not another o-fer today.

Good job 

I also had Harman but didn’t post

loved Sergio 

Got some back on Day 2: 3W-0L-2P. Onto Friday.

Dylan Frittelli (+100) over Will Zalatoris - Bet365

Backed Zalatoris yesterday and was lucky to get out with a draw. He's a world-class ball striker but doesn't seem super confident with the flat stick - something you need in match play. Frittelli is clearly very comfortable out here, cruising in the first 2 rounds on a course he is quite familiar with. He should advance out of this group.

Abraham Ancer (-119) over Viktor Hovland - Pinnacle

Hovland is a little out of sorts right now, losing 4&2 both the first 2 days. Ancer has won his first 2 matches and has a game suited nicely to this course and match play. Definite edge with the putter.

Mackenzie Hughes (-121) over Talor Gooch - Pinnacle

Missed the plus money odds on Hughes the first two days, but he is rolling. Beat Simpson and Casey handily, would have been around 5 under both days. He is scary when the putter gets hot. Gooch is eliminated and hasn't looked sharp.

Lee Westwood (+100) over Tyrrell Hatton - Bet365

Not really sure why Hatton is favored, he can't make a birdie to save his life. Maybe this is the round the floodgates open, but I'll take Westwood who easily beat Wallace yesterday after running into a buzzsaw against Sergio day 1.

Daniel Berger (-125) over Harris English - William Hill

Expecting a bounce back from Berger who was red hot day 1 before losing to Todd yesterday. English has not been very impressive either day, so will lay the short price on Berger.

BOL

Like all your plays.

Frittelli post round interview revealed a super confident guy who said “I feel like I can beat anyone here”. U of T teammate of Spieth and very familiar and comfortable here.
what u say about Zalatoris flat stick is so true.  I’ve been betting him and winning mostly and when I lose it’s the flat stick that fails

but at this place have to agree

frittelli 
short price -120 

im adding that.  Was definitely leaning that way and kind of forgot about the play

Thanks for the post

What should have been a 4-1 day ended 2-2-1 after Ancer and Hughes blew 3 up leads on the back 9.

Round of 16 Saturday (tie no bet)

Mackenzie Hughes (+128) over Sergio Garcia

Matt Kuchar (+118) over Jordan Spieth

- Backing a pair of dogs who were both undefeated in the group stage. Hughes had impressive wins over Casey and Simpson while Kuchar took down Thomas and match play force Kisner. Even a split here gives a small profit.