I will be interested to see how much the wind is a factor on Thursday. Thursday is showing the highest wind day of now and typically run a little more than what they forecast. Also looks like it will be the hottest day of the tourney by about 10 degrees. Typically 1st Round Leader is in the 62-64 area at this course unless wind/weather is involved. Spieth has shot a 65 here in the 1st Round the last two years. He is in better for now but I will hope for some longer shots to hit. Majority of the top favs I have included have shot mid to low 60s before at this place. Same can be said for guys that I left off such as Finau, Berger, Ancer, etc.
I don't cap for the whole tourney unless I pick an outright winner (not doing of now). Just a heads up as it looks like chance of rain on Friday and Saturday and the wind direction looks like it might change each day.
1st Round Leader plays
Jordan Spieth 23/1
Justin Thomas 29/1
Collin Morikawa 29/1
Corey Conners 34/1
Justin Rose 43/1
Jason Kokrak 55/1
Kevin Na 70/1
Lucas Glover 90/1
Sepp Straka 100/1
Peter Uihlein 100/1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I will be interested to see how much the wind is a factor on Thursday. Thursday is showing the highest wind day of now and typically run a little more than what they forecast. Also looks like it will be the hottest day of the tourney by about 10 degrees. Typically 1st Round Leader is in the 62-64 area at this course unless wind/weather is involved. Spieth has shot a 65 here in the 1st Round the last two years. He is in better for now but I will hope for some longer shots to hit. Majority of the top favs I have included have shot mid to low 60s before at this place. Same can be said for guys that I left off such as Finau, Berger, Ancer, etc.
I don't cap for the whole tourney unless I pick an outright winner (not doing of now). Just a heads up as it looks like chance of rain on Friday and Saturday and the wind direction looks like it might change each day.
Yeah he had a crazy 60+ foot eagle from the bunker on 11 that set him up nicely for this round. Tied with Spieth with 3 holes left. I have hedged Sergio so will be ok if he gets the outright lead. That being said I would prefer he either ties with Spieth or falls off the lead. I have Spieth in a few parlays so definitely make a bunch more if he is at least tied for the lead. Feel like you have to get a crap eagle or go bogey free to be on the lead. Ugh....
Yeah he had a crazy 60+ foot eagle from the bunker on 11 that set him up nicely for this round. Tied with Spieth with 3 holes left. I have hedged Sergio so will be ok if he gets the outright lead. That being said I would prefer he either ties with Spieth or falls off the lead. I have Spieth in a few parlays so definitely make a bunch more if he is at least tied for the lead. Feel like you have to get a crap eagle or go bogey free to be on the lead. Ugh....
I'm definitely not surprised Speith shot ccx 63. He does well in this tournament. I like that Kazzire is not leading, but still up there. He had 2 bad holes but still in contention . But hey, it's only Thur, still 3 more rounds to go. Sergio lives I'm Texas also so he's probably feeling like he us representing, even though he's from Spain. But you get what I mean.
This weekend should be interesting
I'm definitely not surprised Speith shot ccx 63. He does well in this tournament. I like that Kazzire is not leading, but still up there. He had 2 bad holes but still in contention . But hey, it's only Thur, still 3 more rounds to go. Sergio lives I'm Texas also so he's probably feeling like he us representing, even though he's from Spain. But you get what I mean.
Raider-It is only Thursday for you, my tourney is today
Hickok is -4 with 3 holes left so it isn't over yet but not sweating to hard with him.
That miss by Sergio on 18 helped me a ton!!! I really thought he would run away with it after -6 thru 11 holes. I get halved on Spieth but also played him with a few side parlays that will still pay real nice. Will wait patiently unless Hickok pulls something out of his butt.
Raider-It is only Thursday for you, my tourney is today
Hickok is -4 with 3 holes left so it isn't over yet but not sweating to hard with him.
That miss by Sergio on 18 helped me a ton!!! I really thought he would run away with it after -6 thru 11 holes. I get halved on Spieth but also played him with a few side parlays that will still pay real nice. Will wait patiently unless Hickok pulls something out of his butt.
I had placed 4 bets pre tourney to win it all for 25$
Kokrak+6200
Kizzrie+15000
Palmer+6800
Grillo+5400
Im gonna double down on Kokrak for 50$ i dont know the odds because Vegas dont have them up yet but according to online sites +1100 and will probably also add Compton+8500 and Hickok+8000 for 25$ each
I had placed 4 bets pre tourney to win it all for 25$
Kokrak+6200
Kizzrie+15000
Palmer+6800
Grillo+5400
Im gonna double down on Kokrak for 50$ i dont know the odds because Vegas dont have them up yet but according to online sites +1100 and will probably also add Compton+8500 and Hickok+8000 for 25$ each
If it isn't my money I don't tell people how to play or who to pick. Just my opinion but I don't see the value in chasing Kokrak at +1100 if you already have him at +6200. Throw in 3 rounds left and likely rain a few of those days.
I do recommend (if available to your location) to have online live wagering as a backup while tourney is going on. Helps in all sports but especially so in golf when you can drop or pick up a few shots in one hole. Other guys performances will change odds plus throw in rain a few days at a tourney and depending on when your guy tees off that day you can control the elements a bit more. If you have live wagering available you don't have to chase as much earlier on in the tournament. I work with numbers for a living so I enjoy this aspect of it. You can only cap so much and it really is crazy how one hole or stroke can make a huge difference. If you look at my posts I never put the $ I wager. I wager a decent amount each tourney and all looking for a profit at the end of the day whether you wager $10 or $10000 on a tournament.
Hedging Garcia today was a safety net for me and has helped me multiple times when I have a guy in the lead. Basically if Garcia would have pulled ahead I would have won some spending change after all the wagers but more so not to lose my original money spent on wagers. With Spieth holding on for a split lead with Garcia it gave me Spieth 11.5/1 FRL but also paid out my 2 parlays at 20/1 and 28/1 after being split.
If it isn't my money I don't tell people how to play or who to pick. Just my opinion but I don't see the value in chasing Kokrak at +1100 if you already have him at +6200. Throw in 3 rounds left and likely rain a few of those days.
I do recommend (if available to your location) to have online live wagering as a backup while tourney is going on. Helps in all sports but especially so in golf when you can drop or pick up a few shots in one hole. Other guys performances will change odds plus throw in rain a few days at a tourney and depending on when your guy tees off that day you can control the elements a bit more. If you have live wagering available you don't have to chase as much earlier on in the tournament. I work with numbers for a living so I enjoy this aspect of it. You can only cap so much and it really is crazy how one hole or stroke can make a huge difference. If you look at my posts I never put the $ I wager. I wager a decent amount each tourney and all looking for a profit at the end of the day whether you wager $10 or $10000 on a tournament.
Hedging Garcia today was a safety net for me and has helped me multiple times when I have a guy in the lead. Basically if Garcia would have pulled ahead I would have won some spending change after all the wagers but more so not to lose my original money spent on wagers. With Spieth holding on for a split lead with Garcia it gave me Spieth 11.5/1 FRL but also paid out my 2 parlays at 20/1 and 28/1 after being split.
I really appreciate it man but IDK how much you bet when you do but it really doesent matter im sure u bet more then me but I bet 25$ per golfer I dont see the point in betting even 100$ on speith now at +180 like I wont win much obivously a break even is cool but How do I put this If I lose 200$ here or there it wont effect me but If i want to win im trying to win like a couple thousand off of small bets if you know what I mean Like Pre-Season I picked 4 long shot NBA teams to win the Finals only 1 of them are in the playoffs the Knicks bet 50 to win 35k I believe I need to check my slip Now If Im betting thosuands of dollars or even hundreds of course take SPeith all day but 25$ not any real money to be made. Sorry if any of that makes sense
Oh by the way
here are my bets so far
Grillo 25$ +5400
Palmer 25$ +6800
Kizzrie 25$ +15000
Kokrak 25$ +6200
Compton 25$ +16000 (End of rd 1)
Kokrak 50$ +1200 (End of rd 1)
Hickok 25$ +8400 (End of rd 1)
How I alwalys place my golf bets is take 4 decent long shots before the tourney starts +4000 or higher so bet 25 to win 1k or more and if any of those golfers are within 3 strokes of the leader or in the lead bet them for 50$ and then take 2 more longest shot odds golfers within 3 strokes of the lead.
If any of my golfers are within 2 strokes of the lead to start the 3rd rd bet 50 on them and then 2 more long shots within 2 strokes. Then come the final rd if any of my golfers are within 1 stroke Ill do a hedge bet liek a head to head matchup with them to lose the head to head ill bet enough to come up at least 100$ either way I know this sounds probably stupid as hell but before the past 2 events Ive won decently on it
@fightingillini
I really appreciate it man but IDK how much you bet when you do but it really doesent matter im sure u bet more then me but I bet 25$ per golfer I dont see the point in betting even 100$ on speith now at +180 like I wont win much obivously a break even is cool but How do I put this If I lose 200$ here or there it wont effect me but If i want to win im trying to win like a couple thousand off of small bets if you know what I mean Like Pre-Season I picked 4 long shot NBA teams to win the Finals only 1 of them are in the playoffs the Knicks bet 50 to win 35k I believe I need to check my slip Now If Im betting thosuands of dollars or even hundreds of course take SPeith all day but 25$ not any real money to be made. Sorry if any of that makes sense
Oh by the way
here are my bets so far
Grillo 25$ +5400
Palmer 25$ +6800
Kizzrie 25$ +15000
Kokrak 25$ +6200
Compton 25$ +16000 (End of rd 1)
Kokrak 50$ +1200 (End of rd 1)
Hickok 25$ +8400 (End of rd 1)
How I alwalys place my golf bets is take 4 decent long shots before the tourney starts +4000 or higher so bet 25 to win 1k or more and if any of those golfers are within 3 strokes of the leader or in the lead bet them for 50$ and then take 2 more longest shot odds golfers within 3 strokes of the lead.
If any of my golfers are within 2 strokes of the lead to start the 3rd rd bet 50 on them and then 2 more long shots within 2 strokes. Then come the final rd if any of my golfers are within 1 stroke Ill do a hedge bet liek a head to head matchup with them to lose the head to head ill bet enough to come up at least 100$ either way I know this sounds probably stupid as hell but before the past 2 events Ive won decently on it
I might not follow your logic on your process all the way but it is your money. At the same time everyone caps for different results such as 1st Rd Leader, Outright Winner, Top 10, matchups, etc. Keep following the system you enjoy and profit on! You should post your plays weekly on your own thread if sticking around. I enjoy seeing new people come to the golf forum. Only a handful routinely play weekly plays around here. Maybe this is the year the golf forum can get moving a little more. BOL and welcome aboard
I use to cap the tournament more on here but usually just post my plays now. Plus I just cap for the 1st Round only. If I add any money after the 1st Round or for outright win it is just for something to have action on/keep me entertained to watch the rest of the tournament. I have been working from home for like 15 months now so I have added more stuff to cap. Wagering 1st Round wager is risky but has been real rewarding. I have my own spreadsheet setup so am pretty thorough. Will just say I know the tee time and which hole (1 or 10) the 1st Round Leader has won from probably the the last 3 years worth of tournaments. Throw in weather, past form at tourney, current form, etc and it still is like spinning the roulette wheel at times.
I got a reality check years ago. I don't take much personal with this anymore. After Spieth won the 2015 The Masters I couldn't stand him for about a whole year. I had a 4 team parlay and the last leg was The Masters. I had Mickelson, Rose and Moore all on separate tickets but no Spieth. Spieth just tore it up that week. Definitely easier to adjust now with online wagering and more options available to hedge. I would have won 400k if Mickelson (2nd) would have won. After all is said and done I have made a decent amount off of Spieth as well. I have my health and have won more in the past 4 months of golf than I had in the past 4 years.
I might not follow your logic on your process all the way but it is your money. At the same time everyone caps for different results such as 1st Rd Leader, Outright Winner, Top 10, matchups, etc. Keep following the system you enjoy and profit on! You should post your plays weekly on your own thread if sticking around. I enjoy seeing new people come to the golf forum. Only a handful routinely play weekly plays around here. Maybe this is the year the golf forum can get moving a little more. BOL and welcome aboard
I use to cap the tournament more on here but usually just post my plays now. Plus I just cap for the 1st Round only. If I add any money after the 1st Round or for outright win it is just for something to have action on/keep me entertained to watch the rest of the tournament. I have been working from home for like 15 months now so I have added more stuff to cap. Wagering 1st Round wager is risky but has been real rewarding. I have my own spreadsheet setup so am pretty thorough. Will just say I know the tee time and which hole (1 or 10) the 1st Round Leader has won from probably the the last 3 years worth of tournaments. Throw in weather, past form at tourney, current form, etc and it still is like spinning the roulette wheel at times.
I got a reality check years ago. I don't take much personal with this anymore. After Spieth won the 2015 The Masters I couldn't stand him for about a whole year. I had a 4 team parlay and the last leg was The Masters. I had Mickelson, Rose and Moore all on separate tickets but no Spieth. Spieth just tore it up that week. Definitely easier to adjust now with online wagering and more options available to hedge. I would have won 400k if Mickelson (2nd) would have won. After all is said and done I have made a decent amount off of Spieth as well. I have my health and have won more in the past 4 months of golf than I had in the past 4 years.
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