Career Builder & Abu Dhabi picks

I can't find any lines except for a few on Bovada.  Anyone else not seeing anything?

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship "to win" favorites

Dustin Johnson 9-2, Justin Rose 8-1, Rory McIlroy 8-1, Henrik 15-1, Paul Casey 15-1

tourney match play @ Westgate

Justin Rose +135 over Dustin Johnson -135
Tommy Fleetwood -120 ove Tyrrell Hatton even
Branden Grace -120 over Martin Kaymer even
Rafael Cabrera-Bello -120 over Bernd Wiesberger even
Kiradech Ahhibarnrat +105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick -125
Ian Poulter -110 over Lee Westwood -110

tourney match play @ William-Hill

Matthew Fitzpatrick -110 vs Bernd Wiesberger -110
Rafael Cabrera-Bello -110 vs Matt Kuchar -110
Martin Kaymer -105 vs Tyrrell Hatton -115
Branden Grace -105 vs Tommy Fleetwood -115
Henrik Stenson -120 vs Paul Casey even
Justin Rose -105 vs Rory Mcliroy -115 << (105 bet for 205)
Dustin Johnson -140 vs Rory McIlroy +120
Justin Rose +120 vs Dustin Johnson -140
Ross Fisher -120 vs Byeong-Hun An even
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -110 vs Thomas Pieters -110

will post Career Builder Golf later

5Dimes is now up

Career Builder tourney match play @ Westgate

Bryan Harman +145 vs Jon Rahm -170
Patrick Reed -120 vs Phil Mickelson even
Webb Simpson even vs Kevin Kisner -120
Zack Johnson -110 vs Jason Dufner -110 <<<
Chez Reavie even vs Branden Steele -120
Patton Kizzire -140 vs Chesson Hadley +120
Charles Howell III -110 vs Kevin Chappell -110
Chris Kirk -110 vs Russell Knox -110
Austin Cook -110 vs Hudson Swafford -110 <<<
Martin Laird even vs david Lingmerth

Career Builder tourney match play @ William-Hill

Jhonatthan Vegas -115 vs Grayson Murray -105
Peter Uihlein -115 vs JJ SPaun -105
Adam Hadwin -110 vs Hudson Swafford -110
Russell Knox -110 vs Bill Haas -110
Austin Cook -115 vs Bubba Watson -105
James Hahn -110 vs Kevin Chappell -110
Cheeson Hadley -110 vs Chris Kirk -110
Charles Howell III even vs Chez Reavie -120
Bud Cauley -120 vs Brandt Snedeker even
Brendan Steele -110 vs Jason Dufner -110
Zack Johnson -115 vs Parron Kizzire -105
Ben Martin -110 vs Jimmy Walker -110 <<< ???
Phil Mickelson even vs Kevin Kisner -110
Like List -110 vs Wesley Bryan -110
Webb Simpson even vs Patrick Reed -120
Kevin Na -105 vs Scott piercy -115
Jon Rahm -145 vs Brian Harman +125
Martin Laird -120 vs Lucas Glover even
Ryan Armour -105 vs Brian Struard -115
David Lingmerth -110 vs Kevin Streelman -110

Jason Dufner or Brendan Steele ov Zach Johnson

I don’t know what it is, but like clockwork every year Zach Johnson plays good in the wrap around, and in Hawaii, plays great at the Sony Open…then misses the cut at the Career Builder, and plays good after the tournament.  It’s a weird format with different courses, and the pro am adds a lot of extra time to the rounds…apparently Zach doesn’t like it.  Three straight missed cuts at the Career Builder.  And if you look at last week, Zach only had one great round, that was the first round.  The next three he was mediocre to bad.  Both Steele and Dufner have better track records here, Dufner won it two year ago, and finished 25th last year…Steele’s last three finishes here are 6th, 34th, and 2nd.  Dufner coming off 18th and 11th place finishes in his last 2 tournaments, Steele 29th his last tourney so both have decent recent form.  I like both of them over Zach.  I think I’ll do something I don’t normally do, and play both matchups, taking a chance to cash big on fading Zach.

Hudson Swafford ov Bubba Watson

Going to be fading Bubba Watson a lot this year, and I’ll start this week by picking Hudson Swafford who was last years winner.  Bubba really started to fall off last year, and I haven’t seen anything to convince me he’s turning it around.  He played a couple of tournaments in the wrap around…finished 7th at the QBE (whatever that tournament is), and he couldn’t break into the top 50 in the Shriners and the RSM Classic.  Bubba also hasn’t played this tournament since 2011, and with the slow play and different courses Bubba’s temper could rear is ugly head.  Swafford isn’t an elite talent, but he knows this format well, made the cut 3 out of the 4 times he’s played here, and won his head to head matchup last week.  I’ll take him again this week.

Jason Kokrak ov Jimmy Walker

Just betting against Jimmy Walker, who as you all know still has Lyme disease.  He shot +4 in the first round, played better the second round, but still missed the cut.  Going back to the wrap around and the 2017 season, he’s missed the cut in 4 straight tournaments, yada yada yada…you know the drill on Jimmy Walker.  Kokrak made the cut last week, and was 7 shots better than Walker, Kokrak not great tournament history…3 missed cuts, an 8th and 48th…but Walker hasn’t played this tournament in 5 years.  Just going to keep fading Jimmy Walker.

Small Play

Alex Cejka ov Blayne Barber

I know, I know, I know.  I bet against Blayne Barber after his caddies accident and lost.  But Barber wasn’t good last week, it’s the just the other guy happened to be one of the worst.  I don’t know how focused Barber is going to be this week, and Cejka has finished ahead of Barber in 2 out of the last 3 years.  Cejka was playing good in the wrap around, he finished with 2nd and 9th place finishes…Barbers last 4 finishes were 67th, 25th, 45th and MC.

Small Play

Grayson Murray ov Luke List

No sure why List is the favorite here.  Last year he played great in the wrap around, and in Hawaii, and then when they got back to the main land, List was terrible.  The year before he was bad in the wrap around, randomly finished 6th at this tournament, and was bad after that.  It looks like the 6th place finish is the outlier.  Murray finished 12th here last year in his only time playing here…I’ll make a small play he can duplicate again.

Andy Sullivan ov Danny Willet

Anytime you can bet against Danny Willett…you’re in a good spot.  He’s going down as one of the strangest major and Masters winners ever.  Since that win he’s been awful.  In 2017 on the European Tour he played in 9 tournaments, and finished outside the top 50 in 8 of them.  On the PGA tour he didn’t finish better than 69th in 10 tournaments.  Andy Sullivan has finished tied or ahead of Danny Willet in the last 4 tournaments here…Sullivan played last week and had a decent showing finishing 34th at the BMW SA.

Small Play

Justin Rose ov Rory McIlroy

Look, I know McIlroy’s history here, but this year is different.  He hasn’t played in a tournament in a long time, he’s had an injury and a heart issue to deal with, and Justin Rose has won 3 out of the last 6 tournaments he’s played in.  Rory is going to probably play well, but he’s also going to knocking some rust off where as Rose is in the groove right now.

Alex Cejka ov Blayne Barber

Cejka top ten his last two tourneys, T-9th OHL Classic and T-2nd T-2nd in a playoff @ Shriners, Las Vegas. this match NOT available in Las Vegas. DID chance him "to win" 125-1 for a "sprinkle"

Jason Kokrak ov Jimmy Walker

only Jimmy Walker match play vs Ben Martin with Martiin -110. Martin Ben Martin T-th Sony [-14] T-22nd RSM [-10] Walker CUT both Sony and Shriners, Las Vegas

Justin Rose ov Rory McIlroy

as stated, Rose has WON 3 of his last 5 tourneys with top in the other two. Rory has NOT played since early August of last year due to injury

added Career Builder tourney match plays

Zack Johnson -110 over Jason Dufner

Zack Johnson 14th Sony [-12] 8th RSM [-13] 23rd OHL [-8] 13th Safeway [-8]
Jason Dufner 18th Sony [-11] 11th Sentry T of C [-10] 74th CIMB [+7]

Austin Cook -110 vs Hudson Swafford -110

Austin Cook -115 vs Bubba Watson -105

Austin Cook T-18th Sony [-11] T-22nd Sentry T of C [-4] WON RSM [-21]
Hudson Swafford 54th Sony [-6] 27th T-22nd Sentry T of C [-2] 29th RSM [-8]
Bubba Watson 67th RSM [-2] T-51st Shriners, Las Vegas [+10]

"of interest" 'to win" bets

Austin Cook @ 50-1 WON RSM
James Hahn @ 50-1 2nd Sony (playoff)
Brian Stuard @ 60-1 T-4th Sony
Ryan Armour @ 80-1 WON Sanderson
Tom Hoge @ 100-1 3rd Sony
Scott Brown @ 125-1 T-6th OHL T-5th 9 Bridges
Alex Cejka @ 125-1 T-2nd Shriners Las Vegas
Whee Kim @ 150-1 T-2nd Shriners Las Vegas
Sang Moon Bae @ 250-1 "cause it's b!tchin' that way"

DID along with the others listed

also Career Builder 1st round match play
Chris Stuard -110 over Russell Knox
Patton Kizzire -115 over Bill Haas

well sure doing better so far in the California Desert than in the Arab Desert this week. after 2nd round Zack Johnson -110 [-8/-13] over Jason Dufner [-3/-6], Ben Martin -110 [-5/-8] vs Jimmy Walker [+2/-2] and Austin Cook -110 [-2/-11] over Hudson Swafford [-4/-10] and over Bubba Watson [-1/-3]
 
and Good God Gertie, Andrew Landry!!! the guy shoots a FOUR eagle 2nd round to go with one birdie and two bogie [-7] for a tourney [-16] and a one shot lead over tourney favorite Jon Rahm. like at Pebble Beach Pro-Am tourney, the CUT comes after the 3rd round so everyone gets to play all three courses once

Got a unique play for the third round.

GREAT call , Andy. Dufner [-2] over Walker [+2] and Rahm [-2] over Watson [even]. becoming pretty obvious that Walker still fighting the effects of the lyme disease

my boy Austin Cook with a 3rd round [-8] for tourney [-19] one shot lead going into Sunday. I sure hope he can hold on and maybe shoot another "bomber"

Thanks man.  I don’t normally do plays like that, so it’s aweaome when you take a chance and it works.

Ya I took some "get your bait back" "sprinkles" on John Rahm +350, Andrew Landry +650 & Martin Piller +800. unless someone shoots a "bomber" I figure those three have the best chance of catching Cook. early final round it's Cook, Landry and Piller TIED @ [-19] with Rahm "lurking" @ [-18]

Las Vegas sportsbooks only have "yes / no" winner bets in the majors

well you were correct, Andy. Austin Cook "blew up" with a [+3] final round for [-16] tourney. at least that was good enough to WIN his two match plays this week and I have a rare 4-0 SWEEP of those this week

Jon Rahm WINS on the 4th hole of a playoff over Andrew Landry. I get back $90 on the Big Basque SO ended up breaking even for ALL my "to win" bets this week