Hello guys I am glad to see some of us are getting started a bit early this week. Personally I need the early start and more time to study because the last 2 weeks results have been far from what I have been used to the last 30+ months.
One thing I noticed last years top 10 was peppered with guys who were ranked really high in the all around in 2011. Simpson Sned Donald Van Pelt Day Mahan Scott Stanley were ranked 11th or better on the season.
I would suggest using course form and all around stats 2012 as part of handicapping this week to go along with the obvious birdie avg avg and GIR.
I found this info below on the net and thought I would share.
There are seven guys with multiple top 10s at TPC Boston over thelast
three stops. They are Brandt Snedeker, Steve Stricker, Jason Day, Adam
Scott, Luke Donald, Geoff Ogilvy and Jim Furyk. The majority of those
guys are much better at putting and scrambling than they are bombing and
ball-striking.
Hello guys I am glad to see some of us are getting started a bit early this week. Personally I need the early start and more time to study because the last 2 weeks results have been far from what I have been used to the last 30+ months.
One thing I noticed last years top 10 was peppered with guys who were ranked really high in the all around in 2011. Simpson Sned Donald Van Pelt Day Mahan Scott Stanley were ranked 11th or better on the season.
I would suggest using course form and all around stats 2012 as part of handicapping this week to go along with the obvious birdie avg avg and GIR.
I found this info below on the net and thought I would share.
There are seven guys with multiple top 10s at TPC Boston over thelast
three stops. They are Brandt Snedeker, Steve Stricker, Jason Day, Adam
Scott, Luke Donald, Geoff Ogilvy and Jim Furyk. The majority of those
guys are much better at putting and scrambling than they are bombing and
ball-striking.
My long shot picks at a first round leader, a combination of guys who have led after round one mixed in with a few good putters and scramblers with a few more solid first round avg picks. I will copy and paste this because I hate typing things out with my 2 index fingers.
My long shot picks at a first round leader, a combination of guys who have led after round one mixed in with a few good putters and scramblers with a few more solid first round avg picks. I will copy and paste this because I hate typing things out with my 2 index fingers.
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3604) Jason Dufner 22/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 15.00
US$ 330.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281026
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3692) Johnson Wagner 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 3.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281025
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3652) Scott Piercy 100/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 5.00
US$ 500.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281024
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3662) Brendon De Jonge 125/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 5.00
US$ 625.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281023
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3673) Roberto Castro 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 4.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281022
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3678) Jonas Blixt 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 4.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281021
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3644) Graham Delaet 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 6.00
US$ 480.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281020
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3637) Ryan Moore 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 6.00
US$ 480.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281019
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3677) Ken Duke 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 4.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM
Single #261281018
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3689) Michael Thompson 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 3.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM
Single #261281017
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3604) Jason Dufner 22/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 15.00
US$ 330.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281026
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3692) Johnson Wagner 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 3.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281025
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3652) Scott Piercy 100/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 5.00
US$ 500.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281024
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3662) Brendon De Jonge 125/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 5.00
US$ 625.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281023
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3673) Roberto Castro 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 4.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281022
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3678) Jonas Blixt 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 4.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281021
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3644) Graham Delaet 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 6.00
US$ 480.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281020
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3637) Ryan Moore 80/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 6.00
US$ 480.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:16 AM
Single #261281019
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3677) Ken Duke 150/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 4.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM
Single #261281018
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
(3689) Michael Thompson 200/1 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Web
US$ 3.00
US$ 600.00
Aug 28, 2012 12:51:15 AM
Single #261281017
Golf - PGA (Game) Moneyline
If
a player withdraws before the start of the tournament then wagers on
that player (s) are refunded. If a player withd raws AFTER the start of
the tournament then wagers on that player (s) are losers. DEAD HEAT
RULES APPLY
PGA Tour -ROUND ONE LEADER AT The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship
SCOTT OVER ROSE DONALD OVER DUFNER WOODS OVER RMAC DAY OVER FOWLER MOORE OVER HOLMES
THOSE WERE FT, THE BELOW ARE HYPOTHETICAL RD 1 MATCHUPS
SNED OVER WATNEY DUFF OVER RMAC IF I CAN GET +125 DUFF OVER ZJ
MUCH MORE TO FOLLOW ONCE MY SITES POST LINES
ANY INPUT IS APPRECIATED GUYS
Doesn't look like we have the same FT matchups, but I like the possible play on Dufner vs Rory. Dufner tends to start well leading 1st round scoring average and he has had an extra week to prepare and just has way better and more history at the course than rory.
SCOTT OVER ROSE DONALD OVER DUFNER WOODS OVER RMAC DAY OVER FOWLER MOORE OVER HOLMES
THOSE WERE FT, THE BELOW ARE HYPOTHETICAL RD 1 MATCHUPS
SNED OVER WATNEY DUFF OVER RMAC IF I CAN GET +125 DUFF OVER ZJ
MUCH MORE TO FOLLOW ONCE MY SITES POST LINES
ANY INPUT IS APPRECIATED GUYS
Doesn't look like we have the same FT matchups, but I like the possible play on Dufner vs Rory. Dufner tends to start well leading 1st round scoring average and he has had an extra week to prepare and just has way better and more history at the course than rory.
Judging by the fact that: dd, da, gir, and sc are all more tightly bunched than most other tournaments, I'd think that you're spot-on with looking at all around. Additionally, you have to: kill the par 5's, make a lot of putts, and not be afraid to get low.
Judging by the fact that: dd, da, gir, and sc are all more tightly bunched than most other tournaments, I'd think that you're spot-on with looking at all around. Additionally, you have to: kill the par 5's, make a lot of putts, and not be afraid to get low.
Last week we had a guy break through that hasn't "played to the back of his baseball card" all year in Watney. I'm kind of thinking we could see another this week in Jason Day - who's finished top3 here the last 2 years, has had some time to settle into being a new dad, and played 3 of 4 rounds last week good enough to be in contention. I'm hoping (betting at 50:1) that familiar surroundings here help him to the consistency he needs for all 4 rounds.
Last week we had a guy break through that hasn't "played to the back of his baseball card" all year in Watney. I'm kind of thinking we could see another this week in Jason Day - who's finished top3 here the last 2 years, has had some time to settle into being a new dad, and played 3 of 4 rounds last week good enough to be in contention. I'm hoping (betting at 50:1) that familiar surroundings here help him to the consistency he needs for all 4 rounds.
KenniS1 that was my exact thinking with Dufner. Where do you get your matchups from?
Blairaj thanks for posting that, I was curious about what other stats were important.
The way Day has played this year you would think he would be 100/1. Being set 50/1 I think the oddsmakers know his potential is very high this week.
Golf is so funny like that, one week someone just comes out of nowhere, that is one reason I do not mind making the small bets on guys that have won before but are struggling.
I am hating that Dufner is down to 20/1 at my futures outlet. Got him at 22/1 to lead round 1.
Blairaj I know you never bet futures really but who are some of the 50/1 or higher guys that you think have a chance?
KenniS1 that was my exact thinking with Dufner. Where do you get your matchups from?
Blairaj thanks for posting that, I was curious about what other stats were important.
The way Day has played this year you would think he would be 100/1. Being set 50/1 I think the oddsmakers know his potential is very high this week.
Golf is so funny like that, one week someone just comes out of nowhere, that is one reason I do not mind making the small bets on guys that have won before but are struggling.
I am hating that Dufner is down to 20/1 at my futures outlet. Got him at 22/1 to lead round 1.
Blairaj I know you never bet futures really but who are some of the 50/1 or higher guys that you think have a chance?
I shop around mainly between bet365, ladbrokes and unibet and play most of my futures at betfair.
I also think that the bookmakers have figured out Jason Day's potential and I think 50-1 is too low of a number with all of the question marks in mind.
I shop around mainly between bet365, ladbrokes and unibet and play most of my futures at betfair.
I also think that the bookmakers have figured out Jason Day's potential and I think 50-1 is too low of a number with all of the question marks in mind.
I do bet the occasional future, I'm just so bad at it that I don't usually post them when I do, because I'd never recommend anybody playing them. And, my book only goes up to 50:1 and lumps the rest in the "field", so I don't bother spending much time looking at them.
A couple guys with real good recent form are coming in around 50:1 in Clark and Pettersson. JB Holmes is coming in around 100. Those are just first glance though, I haven't done much homework yet.
I do bet the occasional future, I'm just so bad at it that I don't usually post them when I do, because I'd never recommend anybody playing them. And, my book only goes up to 50:1 and lumps the rest in the "field", so I don't bother spending much time looking at them.
A couple guys with real good recent form are coming in around 50:1 in Clark and Pettersson. JB Holmes is coming in around 100. Those are just first glance though, I haven't done much homework yet.
I was thinking about Day as well. He was a favorite of mine last year. Scott and Snedeker are good bets as well but going with G-Mac at 40-1. he seems to be in the mix alot. still can't believe Watney won last week.
I was thinking about Day as well. He was a favorite of mine last year. Scott and Snedeker are good bets as well but going with G-Mac at 40-1. he seems to be in the mix alot. still can't believe Watney won last week.
someone should create a site that keeps track of when PGA players have a new kid because they definitely struggle with their ability to perform for a few weeks after.
someone should create a site that keeps track of when PGA players have a new kid because they definitely struggle with their ability to perform for a few weeks after.
all FT, added on to a few earlier plays and went big with one due to the supposed advantage on tee times, the difference in all around stats, course history and the fact that the guy is all over NYC this week doing charity work and publicity stops.
MU
[7034] V SINGH -115 (E ELS vrs V SINGH)
575 /
500
MU
[7002] T WOODS -105 (R MCILROY vrs T WOODS)
210 /
200
MU
[7003] L DONALD -115 (L DONALD vrs B WATSON)
230 /
200
MU
[7006] D JOHNSON +115 (J DUFNER vrs D JOHNSON)
100 /
115
MU
[7014] K BRADLEY -115 (J FURYK vrs K BRADLEY)
115 /
100
MU
[7015] W SIMPSON -120 (W SIMPSON vrs J DAY)
240 /
200
MU
[7018] B VAN PELT -160 (N WATNEY vrs B VAN PELT)
320 /
200
MU
[7025] G MCDOWELL -125 (G MCDOWELL vrs P HARRINGTON)
125 /
100
MU
[7040] S STALLINGS +125 (G CHALMERS vrs S STALLINGS)
all FT, added on to a few earlier plays and went big with one due to the supposed advantage on tee times, the difference in all around stats, course history and the fact that the guy is all over NYC this week doing charity work and publicity stops.
MU
[7034] V SINGH -115 (E ELS vrs V SINGH)
575 /
500
MU
[7002] T WOODS -105 (R MCILROY vrs T WOODS)
210 /
200
MU
[7003] L DONALD -115 (L DONALD vrs B WATSON)
230 /
200
MU
[7006] D JOHNSON +115 (J DUFNER vrs D JOHNSON)
100 /
115
MU
[7014] K BRADLEY -115 (J FURYK vrs K BRADLEY)
115 /
100
MU
[7015] W SIMPSON -120 (W SIMPSON vrs J DAY)
240 /
200
MU
[7018] B VAN PELT -160 (N WATNEY vrs B VAN PELT)
320 /
200
MU
[7025] G MCDOWELL -125 (G MCDOWELL vrs P HARRINGTON)
125 /
100
MU
[7040] S STALLINGS +125 (G CHALMERS vrs S STALLINGS)
a few of my smaller plays on Bovada's match ups FT
Aug 28, 2012 11:32:38 PM
Single #261333010
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
(3017) Steve Stricker -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Competitor: (3016) Brandt Snedeker
Web
US$ 115.00
US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 10:44:03 PM
Single #261331863
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
(3020) Zach Johnson -120 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Competitor: (3021) Carl Pettersson
Web
US$ 120.00
US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 10:43:37 PM
Single #261331857
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
a few of my smaller plays on Bovada's match ups FT
Aug 28, 2012 11:32:38 PM
Single #261333010
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
(3017) Steve Stricker -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Competitor: (3016) Brandt Snedeker
Web
US$ 115.00
US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 10:44:03 PM
Single #261331863
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
(3020) Zach Johnson -120 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Competitor: (3021) Carl Pettersson
Web
US$ 120.00
US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 10:43:37 PM
Single #261331857
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
(3010) Adam Scott -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Competitor: (3011) Lee Westwood
Web
US$ 115.00
US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 01:49:50 PM
Single #261297036
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
(3010) Adam Scott -115 Aug 30/12@08:00a
Competitor: (3011) Lee Westwood
Web
US$ 115.00
US$ 100.00
Aug 28, 2012 01:49:50 PM
Single #261297036
Golf - PGA Head-to-Head (Game) Moneyline
Players
listed must Tee off for wager to have action. If both players ha ve the
same score, all wagers will be graded as No Action. Match up for the
Tournament.
PGA Tour - The 2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Tournament Head to Head
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