Draft Kings has Golfer Props - Lead Round 1 and Win
They list the 30 top guys. Which is realistic, one of these 30 guys gonna hit 75% of the time.
But here is the thing. They are offering hundreds to one.
IE. Clark is 30-1 to win (18th best odds). He is 160-1 to win round 1 and win.
You can take all but 2 guys for positive EV. Personally, I am betting 5 of them.
A few more reasons:
1. The top guys know they may only need -4 to -8 to win this. No need to start out fast. Rahm was +5 day 1 and won in 2020.
2. The top guys don't need to win. They just need to do well relative to each other. So they can take less risks.
3. The bottom guys need to win to have a chance next week. Will take risks. For some they will crash and burn. For others, it can pay off and put them in top 5.
--> Probably betting the round winner, then taking profit and betting outright after 1 is better odds, but you lose the leverage. You can do almost the same bet with a quarter of the cost.
So if I bet 5 guys $50 each at 150-1 on average, I will have 5 potential payouts of 7500, cost of $250 (3.33%). It could be watered down with ties, but 5 guys / 30 *75% = 12.5% chance to win.
Seems reasonable. Especially if you just like the sweat. Tail or fade, let me know your thoughts.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Draft Kings has Golfer Props - Lead Round 1 and Win
They list the 30 top guys. Which is realistic, one of these 30 guys gonna hit 75% of the time.
But here is the thing. They are offering hundreds to one.
IE. Clark is 30-1 to win (18th best odds). He is 160-1 to win round 1 and win.
You can take all but 2 guys for positive EV. Personally, I am betting 5 of them.
A few more reasons:
1. The top guys know they may only need -4 to -8 to win this. No need to start out fast. Rahm was +5 day 1 and won in 2020.
2. The top guys don't need to win. They just need to do well relative to each other. So they can take less risks.
3. The bottom guys need to win to have a chance next week. Will take risks. For some they will crash and burn. For others, it can pay off and put them in top 5.
--> Probably betting the round winner, then taking profit and betting outright after 1 is better odds, but you lose the leverage. You can do almost the same bet with a quarter of the cost.
So if I bet 5 guys $50 each at 150-1 on average, I will have 5 potential payouts of 7500, cost of $250 (3.33%). It could be watered down with ties, but 5 guys / 30 *75% = 12.5% chance to win.
Seems reasonable. Especially if you just like the sweat. Tail or fade, let me know your thoughts.
Let me add, I think the books are counting on no one getting separation in day 1. I don't know the odds of this, but given soft conditions with some wind on Thursday, I think a player will get separation and take solo lead. If some go +4 and others -4, and they bunch around par, could be 10 par, 16+/- 1, 12+/- 2, 8 +/- 3, 2 +/- 3, 2 +/- 4.
Let me add, I think the books are counting on no one getting separation in day 1. I don't know the odds of this, but given soft conditions with some wind on Thursday, I think a player will get separation and take solo lead. If some go +4 and others -4, and they bunch around par, could be 10 par, 16+/- 1, 12+/- 2, 8 +/- 3, 2 +/- 3, 2 +/- 4.
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