**AJ's Picks - The Open Championship**

Locking these in...

Top 10

Donald +250

C. Wood +550

Rhys Davies +800

Top Senior

Lehman +300

I'm assuming all seniors. Here's the list:

Watson +220

Lehman +300

Calc +550

O'Meara +700

Pernice +750

Roberts +750

Lyle +1200

Peter Senior +1200

Sir Nick Faldo +1500

Interesting Prop I found on Phil:

To Finish 11th or worse (-350)

Seems like Phil will not have a good week in Scotland.....

more 1st round leans:

Rose (-125) over Donald (-105)

McIlroy (+140) over Tiger (-170)

Paddy (-115) over Phil (-115)

Els (-115) over Westwood (-115)

Rose (+125) over Tiger (-155)

Westwood injured his plantaris muscle,which basically has caused swelling around his ankle.He took a full week off until the weekend when he played 6 holes in St.Andrews (birdied 4 of them!).He said he is not 100% but won't use it as an excuse.Was worse in French Open.

Get on Rory ! Links golf is his game.Fine tuned himself last week in IRELAND at Portrush and County Down,he's hoping the wind blows this week,and it's forecast.Throw in the rain,tough conditions,right up his alley.This is the week he has been waiting for all year.McDowell's win has inspired him.Remember Quail Hollow!! McIlroy is the man!

Carrigura  You might be right.

  Come on  Lebron

               Were waiting... inquiring minds want to know

                You waiting for lines?

                looking for movement perhaps?

1st Round leans:

Schwartzel (-120) over O'Hair (-110)

Chris Wood (-110) over H. Stenson (-120)

Gallacher (-110) over S. Kjeldsen (-120)

O. Wilson (-105) over Perry (-125)

Oosthuizen (-120) over Paul Lawrie (-110)

Lehman (-110) over Goggin (-120)

Andersson Hed (-120) over Yul Noh (-110)

Roberts (-120) over O'Meara (-110)

Rhys Davies (-110) over Curtis (-120)

Rose (-125) over Donald (-105)

McIlroy (+140) over Tiger (-170)

Paddy (-115) over Phil (-115)

Els (-115) over Westwood (-115)

Rose (+125) over Tiger (-155)

Barnes (-120) over Yang (-110)

The Mechanic (-115) over Quiros (-115)

Need to get this down to under 10...there are 86 total matchups, so 10 or less is not that bad. BOLD plays are my top leans....anyone care to discuss?

AJ

i love the mechanic this week

i think he takes care of Quiros and i have seen him at 30/1 for top european player

i think the way he chips and putts and the fact that he has won 2x this year already tell me he can do it this week

not good at pebble but had a good masters

i didn't see him on the odds to win the tourney so i suspect he is in the field , but that 30/1 to be top euro is pretty tempting

AJ

i found the mechanic at 80/1 to win the tourney

it's worth a unit play and the , top european play on him at 30/1 is worth a 3 unit play in my opinion

he might get them all this week with the short game

gales

You are not getting much of a price there,he is 125/1 with Corals outright,and 50-1 Top european with Paddy Powers.

If you saw him playing last week in Loch lomond,you wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.Partied hard after winning French Open the previous week and looked wrecked.Impossible to see him contending this week and his price drifting all week over here.

AJ

From your matchups ,the ten i would like most are :

Gallacher ,Schwartzel ,Barnes ,Paddy ,Davies ,Wilson ,Andersson Hed ,McIlroy ,Els ,Wood.

I would go for Quiros over Jimenez also,he fared much better last week and his length a bonus.

Either way,you are not getting value with those prices gales.

Best of luck ,will be shocked if you collect though.Can't see him in top 20.

Valid point Vermont.Here are the tee off times for you AJ,some food for thought.

Looking at these tee off times and going on what Vermont has said,your picks that have a significant advantage AJ would be :

Roberts ,Rose (over Donald) ,Paddy and Els.

Tough not to like Watson.....his record at the Open speaks for itself.....he proved last year wasn't a fluke with his performances in the Masters and US Open. I expect Watson to play well this week.

the values maybe a short in the futures , but , he should be favored over Quiros in the H2H

the mechanic has more experience on the course than probably 95% of the field and he is in good form this year , he will dink and dunk it around the course and if he holes a few putt watch out

rocco wasn't long either he lost to daly in a playoff and while length does help on this course it's not the most important factor , when big john won his open his short game was top 5 in the world at the time when he decided to play and not party

Paddypower gives the following prices on the Mechanic Gales ; 

Top 20 finish :      4-1

21st-40th finish :  3-1

41st or worse :     1-2 !

i hear you

i just think he can have a good week at st andrews and if everything clicks he could be top euro

it's an opinion that's all

you aren't getting rich by bettind 1/2 shots

Sorry guys...Everything was good with my internet at work this morning. I had Covers up on the browser, went to get some coffee, came back and refreshed the page...and what do you know? The bastards turned the fucking Web Blocker back on.....

I don't know what's going on there...sometimes it works for a few days and then sometimes they turn it on for a few days. Why didn't they do this last week during the John Deere....assholes.

So I'm not sure how much I will be on tomorrow, if any at all. I've already planned on taking Friday off, so I'll be around all day then.