Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by Watch:
Quote Originally Posted by peppy222:
Either/or/both a line of -1 with 61% of bettors on San Diego has nothing to do with gauging the degree of a team's superiority... The line is pick 'em. There is no favorite or underdog. There will be no upset. There is no such thing as an upset, anyway. If, however, Buffalo was actually to become an underdog, their average take in their last seven games as a home underdog was +5. And since, as correctly noted, all games are unto themselves ("as each week brings a new set of circumstances"), neither Buffalo's Home Underdog Record (meaningless) or San Diego's wins over whomever mean anything regarding this match-up. By the way, 5 of the 6 NFL teams presently allowing the most passing yardage per game covered the spread this past Sunday.
<<<<< In my book... there is no sound strategy for beating San Diego. They are too good. Division rivals NYJ and Buf, another story -- not as good. Full attention to an opponent does not equal victory. San Diego had New England's full attention and lost by 20 points. Normally, a "smashmouth" football team gets better than 98 yards per game on the ground, as Buffalo is gaining.
Buffalo's #1 QB hasn't played in three weeks and has never thrown into San Diego's secondary, which picked Peyton Manning eight times last year.
Retort
New England is not New England this year and is not worth mention with respect to San Diego's achievements this year. Jets are not playing in this game and also should not be mentioned with respect to this game. Peyton was picked off 8 times by the Chargers in a game last year. Can't keep alluding to teams that are not playing in this game as each week brings a new set of circumstances. Buffalo is a much more confident and special team this year, and San Diego is not playing the same brand of football this year.
Want proof? The Chargers are 31st against the pass this year allowing 253.5 yards per game compared to Buffalo's 8th ranked pass defense giving up 184.8. Which nullifys somewhat the edge that San Diego has in passing. Both teams have similar numbers against the rush with Buffy giving up 114 and San Diego 112. You mentioned that Buffalo only gains 98 yards a game on the ground, but you cleverly failed to mention that San Diego is also averaging 98 yards rushing too. Not enough advantages to be favored over Buffy. In short, San Diego is primed for an upset, and if they were such a superior team then why is the spread only -1 with 61% of bettors on their side? The number will creep up to 2, but the Bills should never get points at home. Here's why 7 out of the last 8 times that they have been a home dog they have covered. Check the record. We will soon know who is correct in their assessments.
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