Pittsburgh at New York (11/18/2007)

Jets ML?  Wow. 

The Jets have given up 228 points and have scored only 159.  That's 27th and 23rd in the NFL respectively.  The Steelers on the other hand have given up only 126 and have scored 253.  That's 1^st and 5^th in the NFL respectively.  There’s nearly a 2:1 advantage in this category for Pittsburgh.

The Jets are dead last against the run, giving up 152 yds/gm and Pittsburgh is 2^nd to only Minnesota averaging 151 yds/gm on the ground.       Pittsburgh picks up 206 yds/gm in the air (18^th in the league) and the Jets give up 224 yds/gm in the air (24^th in the NFL).  Advantage goes to Pittsburgh again in both passing and rushing.

Pittsburgh is number 1 against both the pass and the run (only 157 yds/gm and 72 yds/gm respectively) while the Jets pick up 195 yds/gm in the air and 94 yds/gm on the ground which ranks them near the bottom of the league in both categories (22^nd/22^nd).  Big time advantage here for Pittsburgh.

So Pitt had trouble against Cleveland in the 1st half last week.  They came out in the second half and took care of business.  I guess you could focus on the energy it took to make the comeback happen or you could focus on the fact that Pittsburgh now has momentum in their favor and they’ll be coming out healthy today against the Jets. 

Is the glass half empty or half full?  I guess I'm a glass half full kind of guy.  I believe Pittsburgh has momentum that will carry into this weekend.  Besides, Cleveland gave them a scare and they’re not far behind Pittsburgh in the standings, so Pittsburgh will be motivated to take care of business once again this week and they’ll do it from start to finish.

There's way too much of a disparity in these numbers to overlook; bye week or not for the Jets.  The Jets may keep it close in the beginning just on pure guts, but I think the Steelers will prevail big in the end.  I'm teasing it down to Pitt -2.5 just because I don't like to lay that many points on the road, but if I had to take an ATS bet this week, it would probably be this one.

I know it’s a popular trend here on covers to find the game which has the most public money flowing in one direction and go the other way so you can say “I told you all so”, but IMO, there are better games out there then this one to pick if you’re a naysayer.  Maybe Buffalo +16 at home or maybe ATL +3 at home (disclaimer, I have Buff +23 in my teaser, but have no action what-so-ever on the ATL-anything or Buff-ATS.  I’m just pointing other lopsided public money games that look interesting).

GL Pitt backers!