GEEEEEEEEZ, what to do here. Brady missing sum key targets and also coming off a MNF tilt and now faces a DEN D thats leads the league in sacks (34) and has yielded league lows of 8 touchdown passes and 190.6 passing yards per game.
Calling for snow today and i guess that suits Brady just fine. Im hoping this kid Brick Osweiler can hold his own in his first home tilt.
DEN +3.5
0
GEEEEEEEEZ, what to do here. Brady missing sum key targets and also coming off a MNF tilt and now faces a DEN D thats leads the league in sacks (34) and has yielded league lows of 8 touchdown passes and 190.6 passing yards per game.
Calling for snow today and i guess that suits Brady just fine. Im hoping this kid Brick Osweiler can hold his own in his first home tilt.
Im agreeing with the Rookie QB comment. This game will go under but I have a feeling the Rookie will throw some picks with the pats disguises. Should be a great game either way...
I'm taking the pats and under. They dont have a matchup for Gronk and Pats will add another blocker to protect brady. Gronks a great blocker too. I don't think a game managing rookie backup can pull it off at this level.
Denver Defense is a monster but you still need to score more points to win a football game.
0
Im agreeing with the Rookie QB comment. This game will go under but I have a feeling the Rookie will throw some picks with the pats disguises. Should be a great game either way...
I'm taking the pats and under. They dont have a matchup for Gronk and Pats will add another blocker to protect brady. Gronks a great blocker too. I don't think a game managing rookie backup can pull it off at this level.
Denver Defense is a monster but you still need to score more points to win a football game.
BINGO!EASY MONEY…The Wise Men in Vegas don’t give two (2)
shxts about the Patriots going undefeated Ladies and Gentlemen… All the Wise Men in Vegas care about is making money and there was way TOO MUCH MONEY riding on a New England cover; therefore, that
was NOT going to happen PERIOD!At any
rate, nice piece of work Denver and Over backers!
Broncos
Poor officiating for sure, not a wise men in Vegas fix. Just as much of a chance that NE puts up a field goal in overtime for the cover.
0
Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
BINGO!EASY MONEY…The Wise Men in Vegas don’t give two (2)
shxts about the Patriots going undefeated Ladies and Gentlemen… All the Wise Men in Vegas care about is making money and there was way TOO MUCH MONEY riding on a New England cover; therefore, that
was NOT going to happen PERIOD!At any
rate, nice piece of work Denver and Over backers!
Broncos
Poor officiating for sure, not a wise men in Vegas fix. Just as much of a chance that NE puts up a field goal in overtime for the cover.
If you say so Sir…Keep believing that and let me know how that works out for you…
So you honestly believe the contests are entirely decided based on the amount of action on one side or the other? That it was impossible for the game to have ended any other way? All the penalties in the world could have come out and if a player makes a catch, a field goals is kicked, the spread lands the other way. If you believe its all controlled by the Wise men, then why do you write such elaborate analysis on each teams coaches, QB's, position players? Why is any of that relevant if the outcome of the game is entirely decided by the Wise Men who will use officiating to ensure a certain outcome?
My money was on New England and I am upset about it, but I am not delusional enough to believe that the outcome was assured from the beginning.
0
Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:
Absolutrook,
If you say so Sir…Keep believing that and let me know how that works out for you…
So you honestly believe the contests are entirely decided based on the amount of action on one side or the other? That it was impossible for the game to have ended any other way? All the penalties in the world could have come out and if a player makes a catch, a field goals is kicked, the spread lands the other way. If you believe its all controlled by the Wise men, then why do you write such elaborate analysis on each teams coaches, QB's, position players? Why is any of that relevant if the outcome of the game is entirely decided by the Wise Men who will use officiating to ensure a certain outcome?
My money was on New England and I am upset about it, but I am not delusional enough to believe that the outcome was assured from the beginning.
Poor officiating for sure, not a wise men in Vegas fix. Just as much of a chance that NE puts up a field goal in overtime for the cover.
SPOT ON ABSOLUTEROOK. CLOWN HOLTNT POSTS SAME BS CONSPIRACY THEORIES TIME AFTER TIME AND GETS IT WRONG MOST OF TIMES ! LOOK AT HIS PAST RESULTS OVER THE YEARS = THIS GUY POSTS SO MUCH PREGAME AND POST GAME BS ITS LIKE HE"S GOT NO
LIFE ! LMFAO !!!
0
Quote Originally Posted by absolutrook:
Poor officiating for sure, not a wise men in Vegas fix. Just as much of a chance that NE puts up a field goal in overtime for the cover.
SPOT ON ABSOLUTEROOK. CLOWN HOLTNT POSTS SAME BS CONSPIRACY THEORIES TIME AFTER TIME AND GETS IT WRONG MOST OF TIMES ! LOOK AT HIS PAST RESULTS OVER THE YEARS = THIS GUY POSTS SO MUCH PREGAME AND POST GAME BS ITS LIKE HE"S GOT NO
Wait, wait, wait.
There are people that actually believe that sports aren't in any way
rigged at all for the gain of Vegas casinos? You have to be one of the
most naive people on this planet to believe that.
Fact: $4 billion was
wagered in Nevada sports books in 2014.
Ask yourself:
-Would Vegas allow the
outcome of 4 BILLION DOLLARS that was wagered inside their books in 2014, to be
completely up to chance?
-Every single game
inside a Vegas casino is designed/set up/rigged to make sure the customer loses
and the house wins. Do you believe that sports betting is the one and
only game you can play inside a casino without the house given the edge?
-Is it easier or tougher
to rig a game if you can only bet it one state in this country?
-If its easier, could
that be the reason every sports league commissioner and Vegas mogul came
together to make sure New Jersey never allows single game sports betting
regardless of the executive orders from their governor?
Its not fixed in the way
that they are constantly changing calls. Its fixed in the way that ESPN
tells you how to think and how to bet. This is public perception.
Vegas then uses public perception to create lines in a way they know you
will bet. Using this game for example, ESPN told you over and over again
that there was NO WAY Brock Osweiler could beat the undefeated Patriots in
prime time. Public perception becomes everyone thinking the Patriots win
easily, so Vegas puts out a line they know the public can't resist, knowing the
entire time the Broncos would win the game.
Sports betting is you
taking a side in a 50/50 split. If these games were up to chance, the law
of probabilities would cause the public to win just as much as Vegas wins long
term. We all know this doesn’t happen. Vegas profited $113 million
from football in 2014 and they always win. Vegas sports books profited
227 million in 2014 and every single year they always win. Vegas sports
books have never had a losing year. If these games were not rigged, and
are in fact up to chance, then Vegas' success would be a literal and
statistical improbability.
0
Wait, wait, wait.
There are people that actually believe that sports aren't in any way
rigged at all for the gain of Vegas casinos? You have to be one of the
most naive people on this planet to believe that.
Fact: $4 billion was
wagered in Nevada sports books in 2014.
Ask yourself:
-Would Vegas allow the
outcome of 4 BILLION DOLLARS that was wagered inside their books in 2014, to be
completely up to chance?
-Every single game
inside a Vegas casino is designed/set up/rigged to make sure the customer loses
and the house wins. Do you believe that sports betting is the one and
only game you can play inside a casino without the house given the edge?
-Is it easier or tougher
to rig a game if you can only bet it one state in this country?
-If its easier, could
that be the reason every sports league commissioner and Vegas mogul came
together to make sure New Jersey never allows single game sports betting
regardless of the executive orders from their governor?
Its not fixed in the way
that they are constantly changing calls. Its fixed in the way that ESPN
tells you how to think and how to bet. This is public perception.
Vegas then uses public perception to create lines in a way they know you
will bet. Using this game for example, ESPN told you over and over again
that there was NO WAY Brock Osweiler could beat the undefeated Patriots in
prime time. Public perception becomes everyone thinking the Patriots win
easily, so Vegas puts out a line they know the public can't resist, knowing the
entire time the Broncos would win the game.
Sports betting is you
taking a side in a 50/50 split. If these games were up to chance, the law
of probabilities would cause the public to win just as much as Vegas wins long
term. We all know this doesn’t happen. Vegas profited $113 million
from football in 2014 and they always win. Vegas sports books profited
227 million in 2014 and every single year they always win. Vegas sports
books have never had a losing year. If these games were not rigged, and
are in fact up to chance, then Vegas' success would be a literal and
statistical improbability.
YoungUP - Perhaps you are not familiar with how the vig works. That is why the sports book win each year. It is not 50/50 as you describe. They take a 10%, minimum, premium on each and every bet. That vig, plus well handicapped lines, and keeping a relatively balance book (when possible) ensures they win regardless of the outcome. Come on, you think they have to go out and rig games to ensure they always are profitable? Do a little research on how the vig works.
Frankly, its humorous to read handicappers, like holtnt, who goes out of his way to refer to his picks as "investments", believe the games are rigged. His own words, paraphrasing, "daxn fools PERIOD!" for anyone who does not believe the Wise Men don't have certain players, coaches and referees in bed with them. Then you are not making investments! You are not handicapping. Because by your own logic, the outcome is a forgone conclusion regardless of your expertise.
Here is the come to jesus moment.
1. No doubt historically, some games have been rigged. There are even sharp betters that will place wagers based on information that may not be available to the public. Seeing key players out drinking heavy the night before, inside track on an injury, etc. In that case, the books adjust for the bets by moving the line.
2. The NFL and college football are NOT systematically rigged and controlled by Wise Men in Vegas. That is not a secret that can be maintained, and frankly, if it was true, then we are all just wasting our time. Tom Brady gets fired up every Sunday to go out and play in a contest that he really has no control over, because the puppet masters in Vegas already know the outcome. Come on, get real.
3. The Casinos make their money by charging a minimum of 10% juice on every losing bet. This is 101 stuff here guys. A lot of the novelty bets, they have even better margin spreads on. They keep the books reasonably balanced, they always win on the vig alone. Period.
4. The books can do even better when there is an imbalance with public money that fails to cover. The books have had down years, when the lines are not balanced and public favorites cover more times than not. The books don't lose money, they just don't typically make as much money and the lines have to adjust in subsequent weeks.
5. We have all had bad beat losses, seems to some, its easier to explain the bad luck on a ridiculous conspiracy than just accepting that sometimes Murphy's law happens when you gamble.
0
YoungUP - Perhaps you are not familiar with how the vig works. That is why the sports book win each year. It is not 50/50 as you describe. They take a 10%, minimum, premium on each and every bet. That vig, plus well handicapped lines, and keeping a relatively balance book (when possible) ensures they win regardless of the outcome. Come on, you think they have to go out and rig games to ensure they always are profitable? Do a little research on how the vig works.
Frankly, its humorous to read handicappers, like holtnt, who goes out of his way to refer to his picks as "investments", believe the games are rigged. His own words, paraphrasing, "daxn fools PERIOD!" for anyone who does not believe the Wise Men don't have certain players, coaches and referees in bed with them. Then you are not making investments! You are not handicapping. Because by your own logic, the outcome is a forgone conclusion regardless of your expertise.
Here is the come to jesus moment.
1. No doubt historically, some games have been rigged. There are even sharp betters that will place wagers based on information that may not be available to the public. Seeing key players out drinking heavy the night before, inside track on an injury, etc. In that case, the books adjust for the bets by moving the line.
2. The NFL and college football are NOT systematically rigged and controlled by Wise Men in Vegas. That is not a secret that can be maintained, and frankly, if it was true, then we are all just wasting our time. Tom Brady gets fired up every Sunday to go out and play in a contest that he really has no control over, because the puppet masters in Vegas already know the outcome. Come on, get real.
3. The Casinos make their money by charging a minimum of 10% juice on every losing bet. This is 101 stuff here guys. A lot of the novelty bets, they have even better margin spreads on. They keep the books reasonably balanced, they always win on the vig alone. Period.
4. The books can do even better when there is an imbalance with public money that fails to cover. The books have had down years, when the lines are not balanced and public favorites cover more times than not. The books don't lose money, they just don't typically make as much money and the lines have to adjust in subsequent weeks.
5. We have all had bad beat losses, seems to some, its easier to explain the bad luck on a ridiculous conspiracy than just accepting that sometimes Murphy's law happens when you gamble.
You are implying it is ridiculous that sports are rigged, but in your very first point, you admit that games have been rigged. Pro sports have been rigged since the 1930s. You think people just stopped doing that when Nevada books are taking in billions of dollars in bets each year?
Quote Originally Posted by absolutrook:
There are even sharp betters that will place wagers based on information that may not be available to the public. Seeing key players out drinking heavy the night before, inside track on an injury, etc. In that case, the books adjust for the bets by moving the line.
This is basically insider trading. You are condoning Vegas' books setting lines using information that is private that they refuse to share with public, but still take bets knowing every single bettor would be influenced by said information. This is a systematic approach to ensure the majority always makes the bets Vegas wants them to make. Maybe you just dont like the negative association of the word rigged. Allowing thousands of people to bet on a game that would otherwise bet the other way if they had the same information as Vegas is rigging the betting. How are you not comprehending this?
Game 1 of the 2nd round, John Wall broke his hand but the wizards as a 4.5 point underdog still won outright. ESPN, who are nothing but a pawn in the world of rigged sports betting, refused to release before game 2 that Wall would be unable to go. Vegas issued the same spread of 4.5 for game 2 and the public hammered it. 45 minutes before game 2, ESPN alerts the public that Wall would not play and the line jumps to 9 and the Wizards lost by 16. That line of 4.5 stayed the same for 2 days. If Vegas knew of this injury, kept it private, and didn't adjust the line because the action they were taking on the Wizards, this is rigging the betting.
I dont know a thing about hockey, but every Wednesday night I make a lot on an underdog's money line knowing Vegas has used private info, public perception, and line movements to trick the public.
You never ever find it odd that a line becomes smaller even when 70%+ of the public is betting on that line? Its not strange that Vegas would make a line more favorable to bet even after 70% of the public has already bet that line? You say they profit by balancing the books because the vig will always make them a winner. You say the job of the books is to make sure each side of the spread is backed by 50% of the public. So making a line more favorable after 70% public has already bet it is the exact opposite action a bookie would take to make money. If Vegas wasn't aware what the outcome was going to be, making a line more favorable after 70% of the public has already bet it means Vegas wants and seeks to take a bigger loss than what they should. This type of line movement happens every day in every sport. So why and how do Vegas sports books profit 9 figures every year if they constantly go against the lessons learned in Vig 101?
I understand sports are rigged, and I use it to my advantage. You just will not convince me otherwise, especially with such a weak and opinionated argument. I am not going to pretend that these greedy casino moguls would allow the billions bet on sports to be left up to chance while the billions bet on table games are rigged to make sure they go the casino. Casinos depend on this income, they are not just going to allow billions to come into their casinos without influencing the outcome of the bet. If you cannot understand this key point, then you should stop betting sports because you just don't have the intellect to have success doing it.
0
You are implying it is ridiculous that sports are rigged, but in your very first point, you admit that games have been rigged. Pro sports have been rigged since the 1930s. You think people just stopped doing that when Nevada books are taking in billions of dollars in bets each year?
Quote Originally Posted by absolutrook:
There are even sharp betters that will place wagers based on information that may not be available to the public. Seeing key players out drinking heavy the night before, inside track on an injury, etc. In that case, the books adjust for the bets by moving the line.
This is basically insider trading. You are condoning Vegas' books setting lines using information that is private that they refuse to share with public, but still take bets knowing every single bettor would be influenced by said information. This is a systematic approach to ensure the majority always makes the bets Vegas wants them to make. Maybe you just dont like the negative association of the word rigged. Allowing thousands of people to bet on a game that would otherwise bet the other way if they had the same information as Vegas is rigging the betting. How are you not comprehending this?
Game 1 of the 2nd round, John Wall broke his hand but the wizards as a 4.5 point underdog still won outright. ESPN, who are nothing but a pawn in the world of rigged sports betting, refused to release before game 2 that Wall would be unable to go. Vegas issued the same spread of 4.5 for game 2 and the public hammered it. 45 minutes before game 2, ESPN alerts the public that Wall would not play and the line jumps to 9 and the Wizards lost by 16. That line of 4.5 stayed the same for 2 days. If Vegas knew of this injury, kept it private, and didn't adjust the line because the action they were taking on the Wizards, this is rigging the betting.
I dont know a thing about hockey, but every Wednesday night I make a lot on an underdog's money line knowing Vegas has used private info, public perception, and line movements to trick the public.
You never ever find it odd that a line becomes smaller even when 70%+ of the public is betting on that line? Its not strange that Vegas would make a line more favorable to bet even after 70% of the public has already bet that line? You say they profit by balancing the books because the vig will always make them a winner. You say the job of the books is to make sure each side of the spread is backed by 50% of the public. So making a line more favorable after 70% public has already bet it is the exact opposite action a bookie would take to make money. If Vegas wasn't aware what the outcome was going to be, making a line more favorable after 70% of the public has already bet it means Vegas wants and seeks to take a bigger loss than what they should. This type of line movement happens every day in every sport. So why and how do Vegas sports books profit 9 figures every year if they constantly go against the lessons learned in Vig 101?
I understand sports are rigged, and I use it to my advantage. You just will not convince me otherwise, especially with such a weak and opinionated argument. I am not going to pretend that these greedy casino moguls would allow the billions bet on sports to be left up to chance while the billions bet on table games are rigged to make sure they go the casino. Casinos depend on this income, they are not just going to allow billions to come into their casinos without influencing the outcome of the bet. If you cannot understand this key point, then you should stop betting sports because you just don't have the intellect to have success doing it.
Greedy casino moguls? They are all public companies. You can buy shares in Wynn, Boyd, MGM, Caesars, etc. You can purchase their bonds as well. You can completely align your interests with these greedy casino moguls who have the sports betting industry completely rigged. Its amazing they would take on such a massive & illegal conspiracy on behalf of millions of shareholders they don't even know.
As to my "weak and opinionated arguments"-- lol. Isn't, your entire argument is an opinion and completely speculative? The points I raised in my last response were all pretty acceptable realities.
As far as my intellectual capacity to have success sports betting, well I have my good years and bad years doing it. In general, I enjoy it. I just wasn't aware, until your enlightening assessment, that intelligent supports betting is entirely applied towards figuring out which side the "greedy casino moguls" rigged. Sports betting apparently has nothing to do with the teams & players on the field. Thanks for that revelation. It took some time for my limited mental capacity to process that information.
All the best of luck to you!
0
Greedy casino moguls? They are all public companies. You can buy shares in Wynn, Boyd, MGM, Caesars, etc. You can purchase their bonds as well. You can completely align your interests with these greedy casino moguls who have the sports betting industry completely rigged. Its amazing they would take on such a massive & illegal conspiracy on behalf of millions of shareholders they don't even know.
As to my "weak and opinionated arguments"-- lol. Isn't, your entire argument is an opinion and completely speculative? The points I raised in my last response were all pretty acceptable realities.
As far as my intellectual capacity to have success sports betting, well I have my good years and bad years doing it. In general, I enjoy it. I just wasn't aware, until your enlightening assessment, that intelligent supports betting is entirely applied towards figuring out which side the "greedy casino moguls" rigged. Sports betting apparently has nothing to do with the teams & players on the field. Thanks for that revelation. It took some time for my limited mental capacity to process that information.
Carolina too.
THIS GUY POSTS SO MUCH PREGAME AND POST GAME BS ITS LIKE HE"S GOT NO
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