Alright guys. I put alot work into this, take a look at it and give me your input. It is something i notice over time about prime-time games (Thursdays, Sunday 8pm and Mondays) and their closing spread and totals. I been gambling for 3 years. I started to notice a pattern was happening. It is a pattern that has to due with Public bets. I notice that vegas seems to allow only one side of the public bet win. That would mean either the spread or the total will hit. (this is excluding sharp bets, cause vegas moniter sharp bet differently)
Instantly, i know alot will think that sounds crazy and im just crazy. lol. Some will argue that there games where both public bets win. And i would say you are correct. But if you dig into it a little further, typically when a game that allows both public bets to win, it is usually followed by public losing both public bets. I gathered all prime time games from week 1 up to this current week. I did a small sample for week 1 to 3 so you can see what i mean and week 4 to 15 is summarized up.
Key Terms: T = Thursday, S = Sunday, M = Monday, PB = Public bet, 100% = Both public bets hit, 50% = one side of public bet win, 0% = Public lose both
Week 1
T: GB Vs Bears PB: GB + Under 100% GB + Under
S: Pit Vs Pats PB: Pit + Over 0% NE + Under
M: Texans Vs Saints PB: Saints + Over 50% Texans + Over
M: Denver Vs Oakland PB : Denver + under 50% Oak + Under
Week 2
T: Tampa Vs Panther PB: Panther + under 50% Tampa + Under
S: Eagles Vs Falcon PB: Eagles + over 0% Falcon + Under
M: Browns vs Jets PB: Browns + Under 100% Browns + Under
Week 3
T: Titans vs jags PB: Titans + Jags 50% Jags + Under
S: Rams Vs Browns Pb: Rams + Over 50% Rams + Under
M: Bears Vs redskin Pb: bears + Under 50% Bears + Over
as you notice in week 1. Public won both bets but then the next prime time game, public loss both bets. Vegas gets their money back plus commission.
Week 2 was the same way. one prime time game, public lose both bets and the next prime time game, public wins both. Vegas makes money off commission, week broke even.
From week 4 to 15. There was 37 prime time games.
100% : 11 games 29%
50% : 11 games 29%
0% : 15 games 40%
As you notice, public losing both bets is much higher then public winning both bets. Basically im saying, if anyone is betting parlays and taking both public bets, you have 70% you will lose your parley. This is the same for last year and the year before. So all this is to tell you, do not parley both public bet. once in a while you will hit but you will lose more money on the long run, much much more and any good gambler knows it a numbers game. you can't win them all, it about getting the best chance
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