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Chicago at Minnesota (12/17/2007)

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Posted: #26
IMHO I love the way Adrian has ran the ball this season and he should take the rookie MVP award this year. The one thing the Vikings have showed me this season is that they finally found a little offense to go with their defense.
 
Klye Orton to start in this one on the road and will face a tough Viking defense that can score points on you as well.
 
Hester scares me in this one though cause at anytime he can take one back on a punt or kickoff return. The Vikings really need to contain him on special teams and watch for the little dump passes to him on offense as well.
 
I'm leaning on the team that needs this win more than the other.
 
 
Leaning on taking the Vikings at the half so far but will be back if I decide to pull the trigger.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by TauntedStreet:

Having lived in Minneapolis the last seven years, I don't recall EVER when the Vikings covered ATS when a favourite of over 6 points. They might've won some in between, as dogs (such as vs San Diego). What the public isn't considering is Lovie Smith is one for pulling out all the stops (certainly not as vanilla as what you'd seen last night, with Jauron and Gibbs). Devin Hester will be utilized in most every fashion tonight. It goes without saying "the other" Adrian Peterson (on the Bears) isn't a back they'll rely on to establish the run. Kyle Orton has been waiting nearly two years for this chance. He's undefeated in the MetroDome, incidently - even back to his days at Purdue.
Liking the Bears receiving corps here far better than the Vikings sorry lot. That, and both defensive secondaries are torn up. Dwight Smith might be given a "pass", despite last week's arrest.
Chester Taylor, AD Adrian Peterson - that's all Minnesota is bringing tonight, and it'll only work for so long.
Hester, Berrian, Muhammad, and two solid TEs for Chicago I will take, with a less mistake-prone signal caller in Orton.
Bears outright. Call it my weekend trifecta - as San Francisco won Saturday night, Redskins last night, and a fine rigging tonight.
Chicago, and a light tap on the over.

That's some good insight you got there bro

although I'm leaning on taking the Vikings you have some valid points on taking the Bears.

Good luck to you

 
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Posted: #28
I keep reading about people who are rambling about the teasers they have played and how much sense it makes???  They are one of the worst bets you could ever make!!  You think you have some kind of advantage......but the advantage goes straight to the book!!!  For instance.......this weekend, in the 15 games that are now final........the outcome of those games was not impacted by teasing the spread either way.......in 11 of those games!!!!  Only 4 outta 15 games were!!!  Meanwhile, while you tease the games, you are giving up huge odds.  You hit half of your tease bets without the aid of the tease itself......yet you are getting paid considerably less on your wins.  I can't understand it......just play straight up bets folks.......if you have to do something different, just for the fun of it.....play prop bets....at least the odds are on an even playing field........just one knuckleheads opinions.....who used to bet teasers until a book actually showed me on paper with numbers how bad the odds were against the player and how much they favored the house.  Good luck to you teasers out there......besause in the long run........you will need it more than most.
 
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Posted: #29
The Vikes are 32nd in the league against the pass!!!  They are 25th in yards allowed(344) per game........the one big stat in thier favor is they are ranked #1 against the run.......something the Bears can't do anyway......and don't even bother trying to do much anymore.  So, I will be with the Bears and 10 days of stewing about how bad thier season has gone.  Don't forget also fellas......Kyle Orton is a well liked individual by his teamates and will have the backing of the team while in battle tonight.......10 1/2 is just way too much.......but again, the book is trying to protect itself agaist a very heavily waggered on team over the last few weeks........and with the Bears struggles and a third string QB at the helm tonight.......there are some extra points out thier on this game that shouldn't be......from a statistical standpoint. 
 
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Posted: #30
Game: Chicago at Minnesota (Monday 12/17 8:30 PM Eastern)

Minnesota is on a tear. Adrien Peterson is running over everyone, Tarvaris Jackson is on the improve, and have rattled off four straight wins averaging 35 ppg. At the beginning of the season, who would have guessed that Minnesota would be favored in this game, nevermind by double-digits? But, it's not hard to see the reason for this line. Peterson ran for 234 yards in the first game, a Minnesota win. And Chicago starts Kyle Orton, who hasn't played since 2005. This is an important game for the Vikings who are trying to make the playoffs. They hold a one-game lead over the Saints, Redskins and Lions for the wildcard. Chicago isn't going to the playoffs but would very much like to spoil their rival's chances. A computer pic I use (not an official pick) likes Minnesota by 9 points. Minnesota is leading the league in rushing (172 ypg) but Chicago is on a 22-8 ATS run vs. teams that rush for 130+ yards. But, Chicago is just 6-24 in their last 30 December road games. Chicago is 17-5 OVER vs. NFC opponents the past two sesaons while Minnesota is 10-1 UNDER following a double-digit win the past three seasons. What will end up happening here?

I say Take Da Bears and the points. This one will be kept close. As far as the U/O, I'm leaning on the Over. These two teams will run it up.

 
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Posted: #31
I need a Bears win for my Saints.  Therefore i will make a small play on the Bears just because thats who i will be rooting for.  No logic, just a gut feeling.  Did pretty good yesterday taking the underdogs in divisional games.  Won with Philly and the Skins.  I will try it one more time.
 
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Posted: #32
10.5 is a lot of points, but I'm leaning towards the Vikings at the half -7 and for the game -10.5 because of their rushing attack versus the Bears defense. Against the Giants, the Bears allowed Ward and Droughns to rush for 179 yards on 34 carries for a 5.26 average per carry. They even fumbled three times and Eli had a fumble and threw two picks and the Bears still couldn't win. I wonder how many yards Adrian and Chester will get if they are given 34 opportunities to carry the rock. Granted, the Bears do have Devin Hester, but he can be neutralized by not kicking to him. I could be wrong as I got my ass handed to me yesterday by being on the wrong side in the Indy, Detroit and Dallas games. Gonna stick with the Vikes here and hope the line comes down a bit in my favor.....Good luck everyone!
 
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Posted: #33
Da Bears all the way i just wish there was a ML
 
 
- who wins in a fight twelve cieling fans or Mike Ditca
 
 
-DITCA
 
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Posted: #34
Just saw a ML on +425 on the Bears....good luck
 
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Posted: #35
forgot how to spell...maybe i should pay attention

ditka

ceiling

AJ
 
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Posted: #36
and by the way....

go jets

Liking RED WINGS heavy tonight

AJ
 
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Posted: #37
TOOK TEAM TOTAL FOR MINNI  OVER 27-110
 
BUD MAN YOUR WRIGHT WE NEED DA BEAR'S TO WIN TO BE IN THE SAINTS FAVOR..I REALLY DON'T GIVE A SHIT WHO WINS,JUST HOPE MINNI SCORES MORE THAN 27
 
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Posted: #38
had a good weekend
jac
Jets
and miami
 
thanks for all the writeups
 
love the vikes but damn! thats alot of points.
 
layin small on Vikes -10
 
35-17 Vikes
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by BUDMANSAINTSFAN:

I need a Bears win for my Saints.  Therefore i will make a small play on the Bears just because thats who i will be rooting for.  No logic, just a gut feeling.  Did pretty good yesterday taking the underdogs in divisional games.  Won with Philly and the Skins.  I will try it one more time.

Thats what i was sayig about my cardinals two weeks ago but they blew it

 
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Posted: #40

I look at this game the same way I looked at DAL/PHILLY yesterday.  Dallas seemed like the no brain play of the day, but there are always strange games when they play, so I stayed away and I've got the same feeling when these two teams get together.  I know Chicago is beat up but these teams play hard against each other, A Peterson is a rookie coming off an injury, T. Jackson is still a ? IMO.  I should learn my lesson and stay away but I'm mad I didn't go with my gut in the Dallas game and I'm a compulsive degenerate so I'm going to take the points +10.5 and the under in this game.

I like NO, DAL/ORL under, and SA in NBA.  COMPULSIVE DEGENERATE!  GLA

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by TauntedStreet:

Having lived in Minneapolis the last seven years, I don't recall EVER when the Vikings covered ATS when a favourite of over 6 points. They might've won some in between, as dogs (such as vs San Diego). What the public isn't considering is Lovie Smith is one for pulling out all the stops (certainly not as vanilla as what you'd seen last night, with Jauron and Gibbs). Devin Hester will be utilized in most every fashion tonight. It goes without saying "the other" Adrian Peterson (on the Bears) isn't a back they'll rely on to establish the run. Kyle Orton has been waiting nearly two years for this chance. He's undefeated in the MetroDome, incidently - even back to his days at Purdue.
Liking the Bears receiving corps here far better than the Vikings sorry lot. That, and both defensive secondaries are torn up. Dwight Smith might be given a "pass", despite last week's arrest.
Chester Taylor, AD Adrian Peterson - that's all Minnesota is bringing tonight, and it'll only work for so long.
Hester, Berrian, Muhammad, and two solid TEs for Chicago I will take, with a less mistake-prone signal caller in Orton.
Bears outright. Call it my weekend trifecta - as San Francisco won Saturday night, Redskins last night, and a fine rigging tonight.
Chicago, and a light tap on the over.

ALERT

Please don't post false stats: Kyle Orton is NOT UNDEFEATED in the Dome. you kidding me? He was murdered last Jan 2006 w/ a 34-10 loss to the Vikes at the dome. Obviously you are not a Vikes fan or a poor one at that. And that also debunks rekamyenoM assertion that Orton hasn't played in 2 years. Not trying to bash on you guys, but posting false stats questions the integrity of these posts, esp when ppl are betting real dollars here. ASSUME and you make an A.S.S out of U and ME.

GLA

 
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Posted: #42
Thank You for the valuable info Irisheyez, and I think you hit the nail on the head on this game.I'll take the points on this one.
 
Da Bears cover.
 
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Posted: #43
Da Bears will keep it within 7points.
Total Over 43'
Most On The Under And The Line Goes Up, Begging Us To Take The Under.
  Big $$$ On Bears
 Small $$ On Over.
 Smaller $ ML
____________________
If You Like MIN. Maybe Play 1st HT & Bears Game 
 
 
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Posted: #44
laxeagle85 Love To Help!
Watch, Wager, and See.(Last Nite WAS Ov. NY) I recommented playing it Reg. Amount) This Game Go Reg. Amount Plus 1/2 That Amount) Why Number Don't Lie.
Take Bears plus 10'
Play Over Small.
DONE: Then Don't Play Anything Else
Untill Bowl Games.  
 
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Posted: #45
Peterson has not run all over everyone this year  If you look at the numbers he has been feast or famine all year.  His 14 carries for 3 yards last week was the FIFTH, yes 5TH time this year he was held to UNDER 70 yards for the game.  Strange for divisonal games to go by more than 10 points in one direction,  (see Dallas Cowboys). Bears diff vs NFC North -3.66. pts.
Vikes vs NFC North -1.8 pts.
 
Finally,  many people making a big deal that Orton is starting, so what?  It's not like he's replacing Joe Montana.  Orton really isn't much off a fall off from Grossman or Griese.
 
Living in minneapolis for the last 27 years I know one thing.  The vikings are like a lap dance, they do enough to get you excited and then the next thing you know the song is over, and you are left all alone with your d*** in your hand. They've broken my heart so many times I've lost count,.  To protect my heart I am making large play on Chicago plus the 10 1/2. Don't be suprised if the Bears win outright.
 
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Posted: #46
I take back my original post, I can't justify taking the Bears here, even with 10.5.  I'm staying away completely.  Good luck.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by NoDogs:

ALERT

Please don't post false stats: Kyle Orton is NOT UNDEFEATED in the Dome. you kidding me? He was murdered last Jan 2006 w/ a 34-10 loss to the Vikes at the dome. Obviously you are not a Vikes fan or a poor one at that. And that also debunks rekamyenoM assertion that Orton hasn't played in 2 years. Not trying to bash on you guys, but posting false stats questions the integrity of these posts, esp when ppl are betting real dollars here. ASSUME and you make an A.S.S out of U and ME.

GLA



NoDogs, I'm glad you want to see accurate posts on this site...we all do.  But we would also like (ok, I would like, can't speak for everyone) to see a decent amount of respect paid to each other here and not devolve quickly into flaming each other.  That crap gets out of hand and can waste valuable room on these threads.

As far as I can tell rekamyenom was accurate enough about Orton.  He has not played since the 2005 SEASON.  That game @ Minny was in Jan 2006, week 17.  So to me the "debunking" is not necessary.

I am on Minny here laying the 10.5.  Yes I am aware the dogs had their day yesterday.  I actually expect Orton to do ok, to come out and try to show people he can still play, if not in Chi next year then elsewhere.  This is why I do not want Minny at the half.  But I don't expect him to play a complete game, or to ignite a win and a big ML payout for some people who realized they need more Christmas Cash.

Don't be fooled by the stat that says Minny is last in past defense.  It's because their run defense is so good -- and because they get ahead in games so teams start winging the ball to play catch up.  Minny has won by more than 20 pts 5 of the last 6 games.  They are at home, and are a late bloomer with a record of 7-6, so they can NOT afford to blow an easy victory as the playoffs near.  I do not expect them to fall as the other favorites did yesterday... it's just not the same dynamic, not the same recipe.

GL to all tonight...  I would also hit the over if pressed, but I'm not pressed and so will just stick with Minny for the endgame.


 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by tokin33:

Here's a tip for when you think Vegas is right and the game will go as they say.  If you're betting online and your book has adjusted lines, then bet on both the adjusted lines.  You can do it for the spread or the over/under.

For example, for Denver@Houston, I have the spread at DEN -2 and the total at 47.  This means the score would be:

DEN 24.5
HOU 22.5

If you think the spread is accurate, then bet on HOU +7.5 and DEN +3.5:

HOU +7½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$37.77

DEN +3½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$44.44

If the game stays close and both bets win, you win $82.  You aren't really risking $200, though because
it is impossible for both of these to lose, but if one of them loses, you lose the bet.  Depending on which loses, you lose $62 or $56.

 

If you think the total is accurate, then bet on the high under and the low over:

TOTAL (DEN/HOU) u57½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$25.00

TOTAL (DEN/HOU) o37½
Risking:$100.00 To Win:$25.00

So you have a 20-point range of victory that wins you $50. Again, it is impossible for both to lose, but if either loses, you lose $75.

The amount the spread/total is adjusted and the payouts change quite a bit from game to game so these numbers aren't accurate for every game but they are in the ballpark.

I remember at some point last year seeing the headline:  Think you know football?  Vegas does.  To this point in the season, there have been 100 overs, 99 unders, and 9 pushes.

 


So if they can be that accurate, try betting with them sometimes.  Good luck.

 

Did you sign up just to annoy the rest of us with your retarded bet strategy

 
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Posted: #49
Bears +10.5 (2 units) vs. Vikings - well my main reason for this pick is because its a late season rivalry game and the Vikings need a win badly to stay in the playoff hunt.  Chicago would want nothing more than to play the spoiler role tonight and get the upset.  The Vikings offense has come back to life after the return of Adrian Peterson, they still have one of the top 2RB backfields in the NFL.  On the other hand the Bears offense is dismal at best but maybe the season-ending injury to Rex Grossman turns this team around.  If my memory serves me correctly when Kyle Orton started a few years ago he had a few good games which lead to some victories.  The other Adrian Peterson will also start tonight, in place of Cedric Benson.  The Bears defense will basically focus on stopping the run, they're sure as shit Tavaris Jackson will not beat them through the air... especially with 2 of his top WRs listed as questionable and will more than likely not play.  This big rivalry will be a close one and I also see this coming up under 43 but I'll stay away from the total.
 
 
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Posted: #50
I was 2-2 this weekend, so I need this game to end up on the + side.  10 1/2 is a lot of points for a division rivalry such as this.  I'll take those points and cross my fingers.
 
BEARS  + 10 1/2
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